After Trump Secrecy, Biden Administration Restores US Nuclear Weapons Transparency
[Updated] The Biden administration yesterday afternoondeclassifiedthe number of nuclear weapons the United States possesses. The act reverses the secrecy of the Trump administration, whichdenied release数字三年的数量，并恢复nuclear transparencyof the Obama administration.
FAS’ Steve Aftergoodasked for this informationin March 2021. We have still not received an official response.
尽管核透明度取得了胜利，但近年来，数据仅显示出非常有限的核武器减少，这是一个明显地提醒国际核气候，国内政策，并且需要更多的工作来减少核危险。
Stockpile Numbers
According to the new data, the United States possessed a total of 3,750 nuclear warheads in the Department of Defense nuclear weapons stockpile as of September 2020. That number is only 50 warheads less than our估计of 3,800 warheads from early this year.
The 3,750-warhead number is only 72 warheads fewer than in September 2017, the last number made available before the Trump administration closed the books.
That reduction is by any measure mediocre. In its announcement about the new stockpile numbers, the US Department of Statehighlights目前的3,750枚弹头库存“约为1967财政年度结束时的最大库存（31,255），库存的库存降低了约88％，当柏林后期墙下降时，库存量降低了约88％，比其水平下降了约83％（22,217）1989年。”尽管这是事实，而且是一个了不起的成就，但事实仍然是，大多数减少都发生在H.W.期间的两个阶段。布什和W.布什政府。自2008年以来，减少速度缓慢且有限。趋势是减少正在减少和升级。
A peculiar revelation in the new data is that it shows that the stockpile increased by 20 warheads between September 2018 and September 2019 when Trump was in office. The increase is not explained but one possibility is that it reflects the production of the new W76-2 low-yield warhead that the Trump administration rushed into production in response to what itsaid是俄罗斯首次使用战术核武器的计划。第一个W76-2是producedin February 2019, NNSA was scheduled to deliver all the warheads by end of Fiscal Year 2019, but the W76-2 wasn’t完全的直到2020年6月。Arkin和Kristensenreported2020年1月，第一个W76-2S已被部署，后来是confirmedby the Pentagon.
有可能20-warhe(但未经证实)ad stockpile increase between 2018 and 2019 was caused by production of the Trump administration’s W76-2 low-yield Trident warhead. Image: NNSA.
The Trump administration’s brief increase of the stockpile is only the second time the United States has increased its number of nuclear warheads since the Cold War. The first time was in 1995-1996 when the Clinton administration increased the stockpile by 107 warheads. Since the W76-2 production continued after September 2019, the increase of 20 warheads should not be misinterpreted as being the final number of W76-2 warheads. After the 2018-2019 increase, the stockpile number dropped again by 55 warheads.
更新：短暂库存增加的另一种可能性是将少量退休的弹头返回到库存中。这可能是特朗普政府决定保留的B83-1炸弹，而不是退休B61-12。它也有可能是退休的弹头，作为新武器系统的原料，例如计划中的核海洋发射的巡航导弹。我们只是不知道这一点。
Apparently, the nuclear modernization program supported by both Republicans and most Democrats, will result in significant additional reductions of the stockpile. In 2016, the former head of the Navy’s Strategic Systems Program, Vice Admiral Terry Benedict,saidthat once the W76-1 warhead production was completed by the end of FY2019, the W76-0 warheads that had not been converted to W76-1 would be retired and the total number of W76 warheads in the stockpile decrease by nearly 50%.
同时，五角大楼的主要副副助理核，化学和生物防御计划的国防部长亚瑟·霍普金斯（Arthur T. Hopkins），告诉国会认为，B61-12炸弹的生产和野战将“导致库存中的核重力炸弹数量减少近50％”，并“有助于从最后一次兆顿级武器的库存中删除 - B83-1。”
Production of the W76-1 has now been completed but the promised reduction is not yet visible in the stockpile data – unless the excess warheads were gradually removed during the production years. The B61-12 has not been fielded yet so the gravity bomb reduction presumably will not happen until the mid-2020s.
Whatever the number of the additional stockpile reduction is, it is not planned to be nice to Kremlin and Beijing but because the US military doesn’t need the excess warheads anymore. Whether Russia and China’s nuclear increases will cause the Biden administration to change the plan outlined by Benedict and Hopkins will be decided by the Nuclear Posture Review.
Dismantlement Numbers
The data also shows that the United States as of September 2020 had about 2,000 retired warheads in storage awaiting dismantlement. Retired warheads are owned by the Department of Energy and not part of the DOD stockpile.
That number matches the available data. Former Secretary of State John Kerrysaidin 2015 that there were about 2,500 retired weapons left (as of September 2014). Since then, 1,432 warheads have been dismantled and an additional 967 weapons retired, which would leave just over 2,000 warheads in the dismantlement queue.
Approximately 2,000 retired warheads away dismantlement, including the B83 megaton gravity bomb. More are expected to follow during the next decade. Image: NNSA.
在我们的估计from early this year, we thought the dismantlement queue had dropped to 1,750 warheads because we assumed the annual dismantlement rate had remained around 300. But as the data shows, both the Trump and Biden administrations reduced the number of warheads being dismantled per year.
In 2016, NNSA陈述它“从2018财年开始将武器拆除将增加20％”，并且“加速利率将使NNSA能够在2021财年结束之前完成一年的拆除承诺。”NNSA重申in 2018, that all warheads retired prior to 2009 would be dismantled by end-FY 2022.
在2018年核姿势审查发表后，这种承诺似乎已经从最近的文件中淡出。取而代之的是，自2018财年以来，每年的弹头数量减少了。这仍然是目标吗？某些应该拆除但仍然与我们同在的弹头reportedly包括1987年INF条约淘汰的地面巡航导弹中的W84弹头，并在2009年之前退休。
Many of the warheads in the current dismantlement queue were retired after 2009. At the current rate of 184 warheads dismantled per year, it will take more than a decade to dismantle the current backlog. Once the excess W76s and old gravity bombs enter the queue, it will take even longer.
In Context
We commend the Biden administration for reversing the Trump administration’s shortsighted and counterproductive nuclear secrecy and restore transparency to the US nuclear weapons stockpile. This decision is a heavy lifting at a time when so-called Great Power Competition is overtaking defense and arms control analysis. The Federation of American Scientists has for years advocated for increased transparency of nuclear arsenals and have worked to provide that through our估计s核武器武器。
Although the recent reductions shown in stockpile and dismantlement data are modest, to put it mildly, we believe declassification is the right decision because making the record public will help US diplomats make the case that the United States is continuing its efforts to reduce nuclear arsenals and increase nuclear transparency. This is especially important in the context of the upcoming January 2022 Review Conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Dissatisfaction with the lackluster disarmament progress – and a belief that the nuclear-armed states are walking back decades of arms control progress with their excessive nuclear modernization programs and dangerous changes to operations and strategy – have fueled support for the禁止核武器的条约(TPNW).
在敦促其他核武器国家对其武器库更加透明时，披露库存和拆除数据的决定也将提高美国的信誉。我们没有幻想俄罗斯或中国将在短期内效法榜样，但是将美国的数字保密肯定不会有帮助。随着时间的流逝，披露可以帮助塑造有关核透明度的讨论和规范，以塑造未来的决策。这也很重要，因为特朗普保密最近为英国提供了封面减少有关其核力量的信息。
Hardliners will no doubt criticize the Biden administration’s decision to disclose the stockpile and dismantlement data. They will argue that past nuclear transparency has not given the United States any leverage, that nuclear-armed states previously have not followed the example, and it that makes the United States look naive – even irresponsible – in view of Russia and China’s nuclear secrecy and build-up.
On the contrary: without transparency the United States has no case. Past transparency has given the United States leverage to defend its record and promote its policies in international fora, dismiss rumors and exaggerations about its nuclear arsenal, and publicly and privately challenge other nuclear-armed states’ secrecy and promote nuclear transparency. And since the disclosure does not reveal any critical national security information, there is no reason to classify the stockpile and dismantlement data.
硬林计划显然必须承认，数据表明，没有单方面的美国裁军，但近年来只有非常适度的减少。尽管现代化计划似乎还内置了其他单方面减少，但实际上这些程序是由硬林人支持和捍卫的程序。
Now it is up to the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review to articulate how and to what extent those plans support and strengthen US national security and nonproliferation objectives. Arms control obviously will have to be part of that assessment. The declassified stockpile and dismantlement data will help make the case that additional reductions are both needed and possible.
Background Information:
- 美国国务院，Transparency in the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, Fact Sheet, October 5, 2021
- “United States Nuclear Forces, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook,Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists，2021年3月/4月
- “五角大楼在核武器上猛烈抨击储备透明度，”FAS Strategic Security Blog, April 17, 2019
- Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists global arsenal page
这篇文章被慷慨支持成为可能from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the New Land Foundation, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and the Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors.
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