Click to download full report
汉斯·克里斯汀森（Hans M. Kristensen）
The U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) has published its long-awaited update to theBallistic and Cruise Missile Threat report, one of the few remaining public (yet sanitized) U.S. intelligence assessment of the world nuclear (and other) forces.
Previous years’ reports have been reviewed and made available by FAS (here,here， 和here），新更新包含一些重要的发展，以及一些惊喜。
Most important to the immediate debate about further U.S.-Russian reductions of nuclear forces, the new report provides an almost direct rebuttal of最近的指控俄罗斯通过开发中间弹道导弹违反了INF条约：“俄罗斯和美国都没有生产或保留任何MRBM或IRBM系统，因为它们被中等范围的核力量条约禁止，该条约于1988年生效。”
Another new development is a significant number of new conventional short-range ballistic missiles being deployed or developed by China.
最后，最近在一个最近列出的核武器系统U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command briefingare not included in the NASIC report at all. This casts doubt on the credibility of the AFGSC briefing and creates confusion about what the U.S. Intelligence Community has actually concluded.
Russia
该报告估计，俄罗斯保留了大约1200枚核弹头，该弹头部署在洲际弹道导弹上，略高于我们的估计of 1,050. That is probably a little high because it would imply that the SSBN force only carries about 220 warheads instead of the 440, or so, warheads we estimate are on the submarines.
“Most” of the ICBMs “are maintained on alert, capable of being launched within minutes of receiving a launch order,” the report states. This excessive alert posture is similar to that of the United States, which has essentially all of its ICBMs on alert.
The report also confirms that although Russia is developing and deploying new missiles, “the size of the Russia missile force is shrinking due to arms control limitations and resource constraints.”
不幸的是，该报告尚未清除SS-27 Mod 2（RS-24，YARS）导弹携带多少弹头的奥秘。最初，我们估计了您，因为投掷重量与美国民兵III ICBM相似。然后我们考虑了六个，但是recently正如战略火箭部队指挥官所说的那样，定居在四个。
该报告指出，“俄罗斯在2012年测试了一种新型的洲际弹道导弹”，但它削弱了谣言，即这不是ICBM的范围为5500多公里。而且，几乎直接反驳最近的指控that Russia is violating the INF Treaty by developing an Intermediate-range ballistic missile, the report concludes: “Neither Russia nor the United States produce or retain any MRBM or IRBM systems because they are banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty, which entered into force in 1988.”
The report also describes how Russian designers are working to modify missiles to overcome U.S. ballistic missile defense systems. The SS-27 Mod 1 (Topol-M) deployed in silos at Tatishchevo was designed with countermeasures to ballistic missile systems, and Russian officials claim that a new class of hypersonic vehicle is being developed to overcome ballistic missile defense systems, according to NASIC.
该报告还指俄罗斯新闻报道，即正在考虑使用铁路摩托车ICBM，并且正在开发新的“重型”洲际弹道导弹。
该报告中的惊喜之一是，第一级Borei级SSBN上的SS-N-32/Bulava-30导弹尚未被视为完全运行 - 至少不是鼻子。该报告将导弹列为开发中，并且“尚未部署”。
另一个有趣的地位是，尽管AS-4和AS-15核能力的巡航导弹被列为操作，但俄罗斯官员表示他们正在引入的新的KH-102核巡航导弹，根本没有列出。KH-102也被列为已经被列为“野蛮的”U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command briefing.
最后，尽管该报告列出了SS-N-21海上推出的巡航导弹作为操作，但它没有提及美国空军全球罢工司令部的Yasen-Class攻击潜艇的新的Kalibr Cruise导弹recently listeda having been “fielded” within the past five years.
China
The NASIC report states that the Chinese ballistic missile force is expanding both in size and types of missiles.
Deployment of the DF-31A (CSS-10 Mod 2) ICBM continues at aslow pace首次引入该系统六年后，“超过15个”发射器部署了。
Despite many rumors about a new DF-41 ICBM, the NASIC report does not mention this system at all.
Deployment of the shorter-range DF-31 (CSS-10 Mod 1) ICBM, on the contrary, appears to have stalled or paused, with only 5-10 launchers deployed seven years after it was initially introduced (see my recent analysis of this trendhere). Moreover, the range of the DF-31 is lowered a bit, from 7,200+ km in the 2009 report to 7,000+ in the new version.
中程核导弹包括型(CSS-5) (in two versions: Mod 1 and Mod 2, but with identical range etc.) and the old DF-3A (CSS-2), which is still listed as deployed. Only 5-10 launchers are left, probably in a single brigade that will probably convert to DF-21 in the near future.
一个重要的新开发涉及常规导弹，鼻子报告指出已经引入或正在开发中有几种新系统。除了已经知道的DF-21C和DF-21D外，这显然包括“新移动，常规武装的MRBM”。至于DF-21D反舰队导弹，报告指出，“中国可能已经开始部署”该导弹，但“未知”部署了多少人。
More dramatic is the development on five new short-range ballistic missiles, including the CSS-9, CSS-11, CSS-14, CSS-X-15, and CSS-X-16. The CSS-9 and CSS-14 come in different versions with different ranges. The CSS-11 Mod 1 is a modification of the existing DF-11, but with a range of over 800 kilometers (500 miles). None of these systems are listed as nuclear-capable.
Concerning sea-based nuclear forces, the NASIC report echoes the DOD report by saying that the JL-2 SLBM for the new Jin-class SSBN is not yet operational. The JL-2 is designated as CSS-NX-14, which I thought it was a typo in the 2009 report, as opposed to the CSS-NX-3 for the JL-1 (which is also not operational).
NASIC认为JL-2”将第一蒂姆e, allow Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the United States from operating areas located near the Chinese coast.” That is true for Guam and Alaska, but not for Hawaii and the continental United States. Moreover, like the DF-31, the JL-2 range estimate is lowered from 7,200+ km in the 2009 report to 7,000+ km in the new version. Earlier intelligence estimates had the range as high as 8,000+ km.
新报告中（也许）的惊喜之一是，它不列出CJ-20空气启动的巡航导弹，该导弹已在U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command briefing作为过去五年中“弹药”的核巡航导弹。
关于中国核武库的整体规模，有很多谣言说，它包括数百甚至数千枚弹头，比我们估计的250个弹头更多。Stratcom指挥官也有rejectedthese rumors. To that end, the NASIC report lists all Chinese nuclear missiles with one warhead each, despite widespread rumors in the news media and among some analysts that multiple warheads are deployed on some missiles.
Yet the report does echo a projection made by the annual DOD report, that “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM capable of carrying a MIRV payload.” But NASIC does not confirm widespread news media rumors that this system is the DF-41 – in fact, the report doesn’t even mention the DF-41 as in development.
As for the future, the NASIC report repeats the often-heard prediction that “the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to well over 100 in the next 15 years.” This projection has继续滑倒and NASIC slips it a bit further into the future to 2028.
Pakistan
Most of the information about the Pakistani system pretty much fits what we havebeen reporting. The only real surprise is that the Shaheen-II MRBM does still not appear to be fully deployed, even though the system has been flight tested six times since 2010. The report states that “this missile system probably will soon be deployed.”
India
有关印度的信息也非常适合我们过去的信息reporting. For example, the report refers to the Indian government saying the Agni II IRBM has finally been deployed. But NASIC only lists “fewer than 10” Agni II launchers deployed, the first time I have seen a specific reference to how many of this system are deployed. The Agni III IRBM is said to be ready for deployment, but not yet deployed.
North Korea
NASIC报告列出了朝鲜新的移动ICBM Hwasong-13（KN-08），但确认该导弹尚未进行飞行测试。它还列出了IRBM，但没有将其命名为Musudan。
美国空军全球罢工司令部神秘的KN-09沿海防御导弹recently listedas a new nuclear system expected within the next five years is not mentioned in the NASIC report.
Full NASIC report:弹道和巡航导弹威胁2013
See also previous NASIC reports:2009|2006|1998
This publication was made possible by grants from the New-Land Foundation and Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.
FAS核笔记本是全球范围内最广泛采购的参考材料之一，以了解有关核武器地位的可靠信息，并已发表在1987年以来的原子科学家公告中。the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: Director Hans […]
2023年4月14日，白俄罗斯国防部发布了一个简短的视频，其中一名SU-25飞行员解释了他在俄罗斯训练后在发表“特别[核]弹药”方面的新作用。视频中看到的功能以及其他几个开源线索都表明，LIDA空军基地 - 距立陶宛边界和[…]仅40公里。
A photo in a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) student briefing from 2022 shows four people inspecting what appears to be a damaged B61 nuclear bomb.
In early-February 2023, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) had informed Congress that China now has more launchers for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) than the United States. The report is the latest in a serious of revelations over the past four years about China’s growing nuclear weapons arsenal and the deepening […]