新的开始数据显示我们实现,问题关于Bomber Force

经过Hans M. Kristensen

While defense hawkstry to block fundingfor implementing the US-RussianNew START treaty，美国军方正在迅速在2018年2月之前达到条约限制。

The latestfull declassified aggregate data对于新起点下的美国部队结构，洲际弹道导弹和轰炸机似乎都达到了计划的力量水平，而超过三分之二的SSBN车队也已转换。

但是，实施还提出了有关未来轰炸机结构的计划的疑问。根据空军将部署有多少新的B-21轰炸机，可以在2030年代初期将B-52从核任务中撤出多久和有多少轰炸机。

这也提出了有关在B-52轰炸机上部署新的核空气喷射巡航导弹（RLSO）的需求的问题。新的B-21旨在接管核空气发射的巡航导弹任务。B-2似乎已被淘汰为未来的LRSO平台。

ICBM力

民兵III ICBM部队被列为405枚部署导弹，自2016年9月以来减少了8枚。has removed他们的筒仓中的最后5个洲际弹道导弹，留下了400个部署的洲际弹道导弹，该目标在新开始实施报告.

洲际弹道导弹的减少均匀分布在三个导弹翅膀（每翼133个洲际弹道导弹）上，但是从国务院获得的其他详细的新起点数据表明，马尔姆斯特罗姆AFB是达到133个数字的三个机翼中的第一个。

尽管已部署的ICBM的数量减少了，但已部署和非部署的ICBMS的总数尚未下降，但如2016年9月所示。其原因是自2011年以来减少50次已部署的ICBMS，需要50个空的空运筒仓。保持“温暖”，并在必要时准备重新部署。没有战略需要这样做。

All deployed Minuteman III ICBMs have been “de-MIRVed” and currently carry one warhead each. Yet more than half of the force (those with the W78/Mk12A reentry vehicle) can still carry up to three warheads; the additional warheads are in storage. The remaining W87/Mk21-equipped ICBMs can only carry one warhead each. However, all of the next-generation ICBMs (currently known as Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, GBSD) will be MIRVable.

The SSBN Force

The新的开始数据shows that US SSBNs carried a total of 220 SLBMs at the time of the count. That’s 11 missiles more than the previous count in September 2016. A total of 80 launchers were empty (three SSBNs in drydock and one in missile handling) for a total of 300 missile launch tubes.

Nine of the 14 SSBNs appear to have been converted to 20 missile launchers, a reduction of 4 missile launchers per boat to meet the New START overall limit of 700 deployed launchers. As of March 2017, the navy still had to inactivate a total of 20 launch tubes on five SSBNs to reach the goal of 280 deployed and non-deployed SLBM launchers by February 2018. Of those, no more than 240 will be deployed at any time.

从国家Departm获得的额外信息ent shows where the changes have been made (see table below). The Atlantic fleet has almost completed the conversion to 20 launchers per SSBN (one sub in refueling overhaul is probably being converted), while the Pacific fleet still has three SSBNs with 24 missiles, but two of them were empty at the time of the count (one of them in refueling overhaul) and a third was only partially loaded (probably undergoing missile handling).

The full declassified aggregate data also shows that there were a total of 958 warheads onboard deployed SLBMs as of March 2017, or nearly two-thirds of the total warhead number permitted by New START by February 2018. The United States does not need to make additional reductions in deployed warheads but could in fact increase the number of warheads deployed on SSBNs by another 139 warheads if it decided to do so.

The Heavy Bomber Force

核轰炸机的减少似乎是完整的。空军尚未在公开场合宣布，但数据显示部署和非部署的核轰炸机的数量降至66个 - 与该人数相同。新开始实施报告. That is a reduction of 45 bombers compared with the inventory of 111 nuclear-capable bombers declared back in September 2011 (another 39 retired bombers were also declared as nuclear at the time but did not have an actual nuclear mission).

现在，部署的核轰炸机数量为48，现在是12架飞机以下the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” thePentagon set in 2010作为新的起步力量。尽管有B-52失去了核重力炸弹任务现在只提供ALCMS；今天只有B-2具有战略重力炸弹任务。降至60的意愿表明，核轰炸机的能力过多。

此外，随着新的66个部署和非部署的核轰炸机（20 B-2S和46 B-52）的新起步力量水平，一个重要的问题是有多少新的B-21轰炸机将具有核能。空军wants “a minimum of 100” B-21s in total空军战略威慑与核整合副局长杰克·温斯坦中将据报道说Flight GlobalB-21的整个舰队将具有双重能力。

如果真是这样，那么它将提出有关美国长期核力量计划，挑战核武器控制的问题，并可能影响战略稳定。假设每年从2025年开始交付约七个B-21，两年后的第一架核能能力飞机将开始超过“高达60个部署的重型轰炸机”pledged in 2010和重申2014年4月，除非B-21进入部队，否则它开始无核化B-52和B-2轰炸机。虽然那将是两年aftera possible extended treaty had expired in 2026 leaving the United States free of legal constraints, the Pentagon currently uses the New START force level as long-term guidance for the force structure. So a decision to go beyond “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” would be a significant change.

To avoid exceeding the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” force level, it would be necessary to begin reducing the number of B-52s in the nuclear mission pretty much as soon as the B-21 begins to enter the force. By the mid-2030s, all the B-52s would have to be out of the nuclear mission, and the B-2 would have to begin withdrawing from the nuclear mission as well. By 2037, there would only be room for B-21s in the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” force level. Any B-21 produced after that year would have to be conventional-only (see graph below). A slower B-21 production would obviously affect this projection.

How the nuclear bomber force structure evolves also has implications for development and deployment of the new nuclear air-launched cruise missile (LRSO). The Air Force has先前说的that the LRSO would be made compatible with all three nuclear bombers: B-2, B-21, and B-52. In testimony before the U.S. Congress in July 2016, Air Force Global Strike Commandlisted all three bombersas part of the LRSO program, but in its2017年6月的证词司令部仅表示LRSO“将与B-52和B-21平台兼容。”显然，B-2已从LRSO程序中删除.[Update 7/26/2017: Although AFGSC chief Gen Rand omitted the B-2 from his 2017 congressional testimonies, AFGSC PA told me the “LRSO will be compatible with B-2, B-52, and B-21″ but also reminded that the Trump administration’s NPR “will guide modernization efforts, including the future of our bombers.”]

But the B-52 is still intended to be made compatible with the LRSO. By the time the new missile becomes operation in 2030, however, half of the B-52s that are currently nuclear-capable might already have been denuclearized to make room for the B-21 under the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” force level (see above). The remaining nuclear B-52s would be gone from the force only a few years later, which appears to make the fielding of the LRSO on the B-52 a waste of money and effort.

空军应阐明其对轰炸机的计划，无论是否打算保持“最多部署的重型轰炸机”的力量结构，将有多少B-21具有核能，以及是否需要使LRSO与LRSO兼容B-52。

该出版物是由纽约卡内基公司，新土地基金会和Plowshares Fund的赠款提供的。所作的陈述和表达的观点仅是作者的责任。