新的起点数据显示了我们的实施，有关轰炸机的问题

汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M. Kristensen）

而国防鹰尝试阻止资金实施美国俄罗斯新开始条约，，，，the US military is making rapid process toward meeting the treaty limits by February 2018.

最新的完整解密的聚合数据for the US force structure under New START shows that both the ICBMs and bombers appear to have reached the force level planned and more than two-thirds of the SSBN fleet has been converted as well.

But the implementation also raises questions about what the plan is for the future bomber force structure. Depending on how many new B-21 bombers the Air Force will deploy how soon and how many will be nuclear-capable, the Air Force might have to withdraw the B-52 from the nuclear mission by the early 2030s.

This also raises questions about the need to deploy the new nuclear air-launched cruise missile (RLSO) on the B-52 bombers. The new B-21 is intended to take over the nuclear air-launched cruise missile mission. The B-2 appears to have been eliminated as a future LRSO platform.

这ICBM Force

这Minuteman III ICBM force is listed with 405 deployed missiles, a reduction of 8 since September 2016. Since this count was reported, the Air Force已删除the last 5 ICBMs from their silos, leaving 400 deployed ICBMs, the goal identified in theNew START Implementation report。

这ICBM reduction is spread evenly across the three missile wings (133 ICBMs per wing), but other detailed New START data obtained from State Department shows that Malmstrom AFB was the first of the three wings to reach the 133 number.

Although the number of deployed ICBMs has been reduced, the total number of deployed and non-deployed ICBMs has not gone down but remains at 454 as in September 2016. The reason is that the reduction of 50 deployed ICBMs since 2011 requires the 50 empty silos to be kept “warm” and ready for redeployments if necessary. There is no strategic need to do so.

所有部署的民兵III ICBM都已“拆除”，目前每个弹头均携带一只弹头。然而，超过一半的部队（具有W78/MK12A重新进入车辆的力量）仍然可以携带三个弹头。其他弹头在存储中。剩下的W87/MK21弹药只能携带一个弹头。但是，所有下一代洲际弹道导弹（目前称为基于地面的战略威慑力量，GBSD）都是可互动的。

SSBN力量

这New START data表明美国SSBN在计数时总共携带了220个SLBM。这比2016年9月的前几个次数高出11枚导弹。总共有80个发射器（在Drydock中的3个SSBN和1枚在导弹处理中），总共有300枚导弹发射管。

在14个SSBN中，有9个似乎已转换为20枚导弹发射器，每艘船减少了4艘导弹发射器，以满足700个部署发射器的新起步总限制。截至2017年3月，海军仍必须在2018年2月到2018年2月，在五个SSBN上总共灭活20个SSBN发射管，以达到280个部署和非部署的SLBM发射器。。

从国务院获得的其他信息显示了进行了更改的位置（请参见下表）。大西洋舰队几乎已经完成了每名SSBN 20发射器的转换（一个供应大修的潜艇可能正在转换），而太平洋舰队仍然有3枚SSBN，带有24枚导弹，但其中有2枚在计数时是空的（其中一个是在加油大修中），第三个仅部分装载（可能正在进行导弹处理）。

完整的解密汇总数据还表明，截至2017年3月，已部署的SLBMS上共有958枚弹头，或者在2018年2月之前允许的新起点允许的总弹头数字的三分之二。如果决定这样做，则减少已部署的弹头，但实际上可能会增加SSBN上部署的弹头数量。

重型轰炸机

这reduction of nuclear bombers appears to be complete. The Air Force has not yet declared so in public, but the data shows the number of deployed and non-deployed nuclear bombers are down to 66 – the same number required by theNew START Implementation report。与2011年9月宣布的111次核能能力轰炸机相比，这是45架轰炸机的减少（当时还有39个退休的轰炸机也被宣布为核武器，但没有实际的核任务）。

At 48, the number of deployed nuclear bombers is now 12 aircraftbelow“最多有60个部署重型轰炸机”五角大楼套装于2010年as the New START force level. That development is despite theB-52s having lost the nuclear gravity bomb missionand is now only delivering ALCMs; only the B-2 today has a strategic gravity bomb mission. The willingness to drop below the 60 indicates that there is excess capacity in the nuclear bomber force.

Moreover, with a New START force level of 66 deployed and non-deployed nuclear bombers (20 B-2s and 46 B-52s), an important question is how many of the new B-21 bombers will be nuclear-capable. The Air Force总共希望“至少100” B-21and Lt Gen Jack Weinstein, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration,reportedly told全球飞行that the entire fleet of B-21s will be dual-capable.

If that were the case, then it would raise questions about US long-term nuclear forces plans, challenge nuclear arms control, and potentially influence strategic stability. Assuming delivery of about seven B-21s per year starting in 2025 and the first nuclear-capable aircraft two years later, the US would by 2028 begin to exceed the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers”保证在2010年andreaffirmed in April 2014，，，，unless it begins to denuclearize B-52 and B-2 bombers as the B-21 enters the force. Although that would be two years后一项可能的扩展条约于2026年到期，使美国没有法律限制，目前使用新的起跑力量水平作为部队结构的长期指导。因此，超越“最多60个部署的重型轰炸机”的决定将是一个重大变化。

为了避免超过“最高60个部署的重型轰炸机”力量，有必要在B-21开始进入部队后立即开始减少核任务中的B-52人数。到2030年代中期，所有B-52都必须超出核任务，而B-2也必须开始退出核任务。到2037年，在“ 60个部署的重型轰炸机”部队水平上，B-21只有B-21的空间。在那一年之后生产的任何B-21都必须是常规的（请参见下图）。较慢的B-21产量显然会影响这一预测。

核轰炸机结构如何发展对新的核空气发射巡航导弹（LRSO）的开发和部署有影响。空军有previously statedLRSO将与所有三个核轰炸机兼容：B-2，B-21和B-52。在2016年7月美国国会前的证词中，空军全球罢工司令部列出了所有三个轰炸机作为LRSO计划的一部分，但June 2017 testimonythe command only said the LRSO “will be compatible with B-52 and B-21 platforms.”Apparently, the B-2 has been removed from the LRSO program。(更新7/26/2017:尽管AFGSC首席创兰德omitted the B-2 from his 2017 congressional testimonies, AFGSC PA told me the “LRSO将与B-2，B-52和B-21'兼容，但也提醒特朗普政府的NPR”将指导现代化努力，包括轰炸机的未来。”]

但是B-52仍然打算与LRSO兼容。然而，到2030年新导弹开始运行时，目前有核能的B-52中有一半可能已经被无核化，以在“最高60个部署的重型炸弹枪”下为B-21腾出空间（往上看）。仅几年后，其余的核B-52将从部队中消失，这似乎使B-52上的LRSO的范围浪费了金钱和努力。

这Air Force should clarify its plans for the bomber force, whether it intends to keep the “up to 60 deployed heavy bombers” force structure, how many B-21s will be nuclear-capable, and whether the LRSO needs to be made compatible with the B-52 at all.

This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the New Land Foundation, and the Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.