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The U.S. nuclear war plan that entered into effect in March 2003 included new executable strike options against regional states seeking weapons of mass destruction. |
汉斯·克里斯汀森（Hans M. Kristensen）
2001年的核态势评估报告》(NPR)和白色use guidance issued in response to the terrorist attacks against the United States in September 2001 led to the creation of new nuclear strike options against regional states seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, according toa military planning document由美国科学家联合会获得。
Rumors about such options have existed for years, but the document is the first authoritative evidence that fear of weapons of mass destruction attacks from outside Russia and China caused the Bush administration to broaden U.S. nuclear targeting policy by ordering the military to prepare a series of new options for nuclear strikes against regional proliferators.
在恐怖袭击2001年9月11日恐怖袭击后不久，白宫发布的核武器计划指南时，美国战略司令部创建了一系列针对地区国家的核罢工选择。该文件中的插图将各州确定为朝鲜和利比亚以及装备有飞翔的国家的国家，这些国家似乎包括伊朗，伊拉克（当时）和叙利亚 - NPR中提到的国家。新的罢工选择已纳入了2003年3月1日生效的战略核战争计划中。
创建新的罢工选项矛盾陈述s by government officials who have insisted that the NPR did not change U.S. nuclear policy but decreased the role of nuclear weapons.
Non-Denial Denials and a Few Hints
When portions of the2001 Nuclear Posture Review(NPR) were leaked in theLos Angeles Timesin March 2002, government officials responded by playing down the importance of the document and its effect on nuclear planning. And officials have since continue to credit the NPR with reducing the reliance on nuclear weapons.
The NPR is “not a plan, it’s not an operational plan,” then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard B. Myersinsisted on CNNthe day after the NPR was leaked. “It’s a policy document. And it simply states our deterrence posture, of which nuclear weapons are a part….And it’s been the policy of this country for a long time, as long as I’ve been a senior officer, that the president would always reserve the right up to and including the use of nuclear weapons if that was appropriate. So that continues to be the policy.”
A formal陈述published by the Department of Defense added that the NPR “does not provide operational guidance on nuclear targeting or planning,” but that the military simply “continues to plan for a broad range of contingencies and unforeseen threats to the United States and its allies.”
最近，在2007年10月9日，美国裁军会议的永久代表克里斯蒂娜·罗卡（Christina Rocca），told联合国大会第一委员会认为，美国一直在“减少国家安全战略中对[核]武器的依赖程度……。这正是NPR中体现的新思想，使我们有历史性的减少是我们的。今天继续。”
Yet a few officials hinted in 2002 that the same guidance expanded nuclear planning. “There are nations out there developing weapons of mass destruction,” then Secretary of State Colin Powell said on CBS’面对国家。他说：“审慎的计划者必须考虑到总统应为他应对这类威胁的选择范围。”
解密的美国战略司令部（Stratcom）文件显示，NPR的“新思维”的第一个结果之一是创建了针对地区国家的一系列新核罢工选择。
A Series of Regional Options
The 26-page declassified document, an excerpt from a 123-page STRATCOM briefing on the production of the 2003 strategic nuclear war plan known as OPLAN 8044 Revision 03, includes two slides that describe the planning against “regional states.” The first of these slides lists a “series of [deleted] options” directed against regional countries with weapons of mass destruction programs. The planning is “scenario driven,” according to the document. The majority of the document deals with targeting of Russia and China, but virtually all of those sections were withheld by the declassification officer.
The names of the “regional states” were also withheld, but three images used to illustrate the planning were released, and they leave little doubt who the regional states are: One of the images is the North Korean Taepo Dong 1 missile; another image shows the Libyan underground facility at Tarhuna; and the third image shows a SCUD B short-range ballistic missile. The SCUD B image is not country-specific, but the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center reportBallistic and Cruise MissileThreat from 2003 listed 12 countries with SCUD B missiles: Belarus, Bulgaria, Egypt, Iran, Kazakhstan, Libya, North Korea, Syria, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Vietnam and Yemen. Five of these were listed in the NPR as examples of countries that were “immediate, potential, or unexpected contingencies…setting requirements for nuclear strike capabilities”: Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea and Syria.
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解密的Stratcom文档中包含的图像将几个区域州确定为新的核罢工计划的目标。 |
包括区域nuclear counterproliferaiton strike options into the国家的(strategic) war plan is a new development because such scenarios have normally been thought to reside at a lower level than the national strategic plan, which has traditionally been focused on targeting of Russia and China. During the 1990s, STRATCOM developed adaptive planning capabilities that enabled quick production of strikes against “rogue” states if necessary, but “there were no immediate plans on the shelf for target packages to give to bombers or missile crews,” a former senior Pentagon official toldWashington Postin 2002. OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 changed that by producing executable strike options to the nuclear forces.
Stratcom文档中概述了区域国家的“目标基础”，但是除了标题以外的所有内容都已被保留。但是，目标基地可能包括大规模杀伤性武器，包含化学或生物武器的深层，硬化的掩体，或各州对美国或其朋友和盟友进行WMD攻击所需的指挥和控制基础设施。美国核武器就业政策（NUWEP）在OPLAN 8044修订后一年生效，部分指定：“美国核力量必须能够并且可以被视为能够破坏那些潜在的敌人领导人最重视的那些批判性战争和支持战争的资产和能力战争世界。”
The creation of a “target base” indicates that the planning went further than simple retaliatory punishment with one or a few weapons, but envisioned actual nuclear warfighting intended to annihilate a wide range of facilities in order to deprive the states the ability to launch and fight with WMD. The new plan formally broadened strategic nuclear targeting from two adversaries (Russia and China) to a total of seven.
伊拉克在2003年3月入侵该国之后，伊拉克大概再次从战争计划中消失了 - 在OPLAN 8044修订版03生效后仅三个星期 - 发现伊拉克没有大规模杀伤性武器。利比亚大概在2003年12月之后消失了，当时穆阿玛·卡扎菲（Muammar Gaddafi）总统宣布他正在放弃开发大规模杀伤性武器的努力。
然而，针对伊朗，朝鲜和叙利亚的核罢工计划大概是从2004年10月开始的下一个OPLAN 8044修订版，该计划仍在2007年7月生效。
核指导 |
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| “The 2001 Nuclear Posture Review (top) and White House guidance led to an expansion of U.S. nuclear targeting plans. |
New Guidance for the Regions
The STRATCOM document indicates that National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD)-14 signed by President Bush on June 28, 2002, was the key While Houseguidancethat resulted in the incorporation into the strategic nuclear war plan of strike options against regional proliferators.
关于NSPD-14的披露很少，除了它列出了总统核武器计划指导，并为核武器规划的机构和命令提供了广泛的总体方向。因此，NSPD-14可能已经取代了克林顿总统在1997年11月签署的总统决策指令（PDD）-60，作为白宫核武器规划的主要指南。据Stratcom文件显示，据报道，PDD-60还需要针对扩散剂进行计划，但是与先前的计划相比，修订版03中的新罢工选项是“显着的变化”。
Flowing from NSPD-14 were several other important guidance documents that deepened the commitment to targeting regional proliferators. The first was the JSCP Transitional Guidance in June 2002, which directed changes to the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP). JSCP includes a nuclear annex or supplement, known as JSCP-N, that give detailed nuclear planning guidance to the unified and regional commanders. The new JSCP-N was published on October 1, 2002. Another document was the NUWEP (Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy) Transitional Guidance signed on August 29, 2002, which led to the publication of NUWEP-04 in April 2004.
Three months after NSPD-14, on September 14, 2002, President Bush also signed NSPD-17 (National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction), a directive that articulated a comprehensive strategy to counter nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. NSPD-17 reaffirmed that, if necessary, the United States will use nuclear weapons against anyone using weapons of mass destruction against the United States, its forces abroad, and friends and allies, according toWashington Times。But a top-secret appendix to NSPD 17 specifically named Iran, Syria, North Korea and Libya as being among the countries that are the central focus of the new strategy, and that options included nuclear weapons. Those options were in place with OPLAN 8044 Revision 03. The motivation for the new strategy, one participant in the interagency process that drafted it toldWashington Post，这是“传统的非扩散失败的结论，现在我们正在积极进行拦截。”NSPD-17有时也称为抢占学说。
The regional strike plans also found their way into the draft联合核行动的学说（联合出版物3-12）下,这是在军事准备at the time Revision 03 was created. Yet the doctrine showed that planning went beyond retaliation and included preemptive strikes. The second draft from March 2005 listed five scenarios where use of nuclear weapons might be requested:
• To counter an adversaryintending to useweapons of mass destruction against U.S., multinational, or allies forces or civilian populations;
• To counter迫在眉睫的攻击从只有核武器影响的对手的生物武器可以安全销毁；
• To attack on adversary installations including weapons of mass destruction, deep, hardened bunkers containing chemical or biological weapons, or the command and control infrastructure required for the adversary to execute a WMD attack against the United States or its friends and allies; [this was probably the “target base” in OPLAN 8044 Revision 03]
•应对潜在的压倒性敌人常规力量；
•证明美国的意图和使用核武器来阻止对手WMD使用的能力。
After I disclosed this development in一篇文章inArms Control Todayin September 2005 and theWashington Post跟进with a front-page story, sixteen members of Congress – including the current chair of the House Armed Services Committee – reacted by写作总统反对他们认为是“美国核政策的急剧转变”。
Embarrassed by the exposure, the Pentagoncancelednot only the draft doctrine (and four other related doctrine documents) but also the existing Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations document that had been publicly available on the Joint Chiefs of Staff web site for a decade. A Joint Staff official explained that the documents would not be published, revised or classified, explaining that that they had been found not to be real doctrine documents but “pseudo doctrine” documents discussing nuclear policy issues. The public “visibility led a lot of people to question why we have them,” he said.
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在埃利斯海军上将（右），Stratcom准备的任职期间，准备了CJCS Richard Myers（左），将SIOP扩展到“适用于更广泛的场景的计划家庭”。 |
From SIOP to OPLAN 8044: A “Family of Plans”
没有迹象表明取消联合核操作文件的学说改变了核政策。解密的Stratcom文件将OPLAN 8044修订版描述为“朝着新的三合会和未来战争计划迈出的过渡步骤”。在2001年NPR创造了“新三合会”短语之前，这种过渡就开始了很长时间，并逐渐将最重型的自动独立单一集成运营计划（SIOP）转变为更广泛的罢工选项，适用于更广泛的方案范围反对更多的对手。当修订03的准备工作于2002年3月开始时，战略核战争计划的战斗就业部分仍然被称为SIOP，但必须更改该名称以反映新兴的众多罢工选择。
当联合工作人员开始审查新的战争计划时，Stratcom指挥官詹姆斯·埃利斯（James Ellis）海军上将wroteto General Myers that the name SIOP did not properly describe the new plan. “STRATCOM is changing the nation’s nuclear war plan from a single, large, integrated plan to a family of plans applicable in a wider range of scenarios,” Ellis explained with a reference to Revision 03. The first STRATCOM commander, General George Lee Butler, hadtried在1992年更改名称，但没有运气。巴特勒想将名称更改为国家战略响应计划。十一年后，埃利斯海军上将再次尝试。他说，SIOP的名字是冷战的遗产。
This time, the JCS chairman was more receptive. On February 8, 2003, only one month before Revision 03 went into effect, General MyersauthorizedStratcom正式更改名称，以反映“新计划”的创作。然而，迈尔斯（Myers）担心混乱可能会“在基本的USSTRATCOM OPLAN 8044和该Oplan的战斗就业部分之间发生，目前称为SIOP”。他认为，该解决方案是继续致电OPLAN 8044的基本计划，但结合了OPLAN 8044修订版（FY），以描述当前称为SIOP的计划的部分。修订号（FY）将与制定的就业计划生效的财政年度相对应。OPLAN 8044修订版2003年3月1日是第一个携带新名称的计划。
显然，新的罢工选择被带入了OPLAN 8044修订版05，这是2004年10月1日生效的下一个战略战争计划。该计划被描述为美国战略战争计划的“重大改造”，根据该计划的“重大改造”迈尔斯将军：“提供了更灵活的选择来确保盟友，并劝阻，威慑，并在必要时击败对手，在更广泛的意外情况下。”截至2007年7月，OPLAN 8044修订05仍在这里).
Claims About Reducing Reliance On Nuclear Weapons
Officials frequently credit the NPR with having significantly reduced the reliance on nuclear weapons in U.S. nuclear policy. The basis for this claim is that non-nuclear capabilities also should play a role in deterring potential adversaries, an goal exemplified by the incorporation of conventional strike options into OPLAN 8044 Revision 05, the war plan than followed OPLAN 8044 Revision 03, and the removal of Russia as an “immediate contingency.”
“The United States has set in motion an entirely new way of looking at the role of nuclear weapons in our defense strategy,” Jackie W. Sanders, U.S. Ambassador and Special Representative of the President for the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons,told2005年不扩散条约审查会议。“我说，我说的是2001年美国核姿势评论（NPR）的主席先生。2001年NPR建立了一个新的战略能力，这使得核武器依靠核武器以实现美国国防政策目标……。主席先生，让我强调，原则上和实际上，由NPR产生的新三合会概念将减少美国国家安全战略中对核武器的依赖。它反映了对未来的全新愿景，并且与我们无可争议的实施第六条的决心完全一致。”
但是，尽管某些常规武器被纳入了国家战争计划，但没有完成针对俄罗斯的计划in the same way正是在冷战期间，NPR（建于1997年的PDD-60建设）和白宫指导也导致了中国的核靶向增加，并且正如解密的Stratcom文件所示，国家核对象的地理位置扩展到国家级核对象的地理位置扩展到区域扩散剂。不管是否谨慎，这不是美国不应该入会议上的美国外交官强调的发展。
Description of Document
The declassified document is heavily redacted and consists of 26 of a total of 123 slides from the Revision 03 Periodic Update of the U.S. strategic war plan that went into effect on March 1, 2003. The plan was the first strategic war plan to carry the new name Operations Plan (OPLAN) 8044 Revision 03, which更换the Single Operational Strategic Plan (SIOP) name used since 1960. OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 replaced SIOP-03 from October 1, 2002.
The document describes six parts of the new plan preparation: Revision 03 production status, planning guidance, target base, committed forces, options, and conclusions.
The document is not dated, but appears to be from October 2002, shortly before the Secretary of Defense was briefed. Targeting intelligence and selection had been completed, warheads allocated to the strike plans, and strike (sortie) planning for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Sea-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and long-range bombers nearly completed. After a Joint Staff review and production of the final Revision Report 03 in January 2003, final Defense Secretary review and approval by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were scheduled for late January 2003 before OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 went into effect on March 1, 2003.
Declassification of the document took four years. It was released in response to a FOIA request submitted in October 2003 for documents pursuant to remarks made by then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing in July 2002. When asked if there had been a review of the SIOP since the mid-1990s, Myers回答：“是的，绝对有。实际上，我和秘书花了很多时间修改了SIOP。我认为我们从去年开始，并进行了另一项重大评论。”解密文件于2007年10月10日发布。
Resources:美国核武器指导|威慑矩阵|冷战后的SIOP和核战计划：词汇表，缩写和首字母缩写词
致谢：福特基金会，约翰·D·凯瑟琳·麦克阿瑟基金会（Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation）和耕种基金会（Plowshares Fund）的支持使这项研究成为可能。
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