On 18 December 2021, India测试its new Agni-P medium-range ballistic missile from its Integrated Test Range on Abdul Kalam Island. This was the second test of the missile, the first test having been conducted in2021年6月。
我们的朋友在Planet Labs PBC在测试前一天，设法捕获了坐在发射台上的Agni-P发射器的图像。
在两次启动Agni-P之后，印度政府引用to the missile as a “new generation” nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Back in 2016, when the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) first announced the development of the Agni-P (which was called the Agni-1P at the time), a senior DRDO officialexplained为什么该导弹如此特别：
“随着我们的弹道导弹随着范围的增长，我们的技术发展成熟。现在，结合了旧技术的早期，短距离导弹将被更先进的技术取代。将其称为技术的集成。”
The Agni-P is India’s first shorter-range missile to incorporate technologies now found in the newer Agni-IV and -V ballistic missiles, including more advanced rocket motors, propellants, avionics, and navigation systems.
最值得注意的是，AGNI-P还纳入了印度新型AGNI-V中间弹道导弹中看到的一项新功能，有可能影响战略稳定性：罐头。AGNI-P发布中使用的发射器似乎增加了移动性。也有未经证实的谣言，即Agni-P和Agni-V可能具有发射多个弹头的能力。
罐头
“Canisterizing” refers to storing missiles inside a sealed, climate-controlled tube to protect them from the outside elements during transportation. In this configuration, the warhead can be permanently mated with the missile instead of having to be installed prior to launch, which would significantly reduce the amount of time needed to launch nuclear weapons in a crisis. This is a new feature of India’s Strategic Forces Command’s increased emphasis on readiness. In recent years, former senior civilian and military officials have reportedlysuggested in interviewsthat “some portion of India’s nuclear force, particularly those weapons and capabilities designed for use against Pakistan, are now kept at a high state of readiness, capable of being operationalized and released within seconds or minutes in a crisis—not hours, as had been assumed.”
如果印度弹头越来越与他们的交付系统交配，那么对手很难发现何时危机即将升至核阈值。随着弹头和交付系统的分离，与两者交配的信号在危机中将更加明显，并且过程本身将需要更长的时间。但是，用完全武装的导弹的广泛的罐头化将缩短警告时间。这可能会导致巴基斯坦增加其导弹的准备情况并缩短其发射程序 - 步骤，这些程序可能会增加危机不稳定，并有可能增加区域危机中核使用的可能性。作为Vipin Narang和Christopher Clarynoted in a 2019 article for国际安全这一发展“使印度可以释放一场全面的反对罢工，几乎没有迹象表明巴基斯坦即将到来（成功的必要前提）。如果巴基斯坦认为印度采取了“全面的第一次罢工”战略，并且没有迹象表明罢工何时开始，那么危机的不稳定将被大大放大。”
多年来，很明显印度的新AGNI-V中级导弹（印度国防部saysAgni-V has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers; the US militarysays该范围超过5,000公里，但不超过ICBM范围）将被关闭；但是，引入较短的罐头Agni-P表明，印度最终打算在其陆基核输送系统套件中纳入罐头化技术，并涵盖较短和更长的导弹。尽管AGNI-V是印度武器库的新成员，但Arni-P可能是打算的 - 一旦成为运营 - 取代印度较旧的Agni-I和Agni-II系统。
MIRV技术
看来，印度还在开发技术，以潜在地向每弹导弹部署多个弹头。关于这项技术的先进程度，以及它是否能够独立定位每个弹头（使用多个独立靶向重新进入的重新进入车辆或MIRV），还是仅针对同一目标的多个有效载荷，仍然存在不确定性。
有传言称，2021年6月的AGNI-P测试使用了两种可操纵的诱饵来模拟有效载荷，并没有命名印度国防来源suggesting功能性的MIRV能力将需要另外两年来开发和飞行测试。印度国防部新闻稿没有提及有效载荷。目前尚不清楚2021年12月的测试是否以类似方式使用了诱饵。
In 2013, the director-general of DRDOnoted在接受采访时说,“我们的设计活动evelopment and production of MIRV is at an advanced stage today. We are designing the MIRVs, we are integrating [them] with Agni IV and Agni V missiles.” In October 2021, the Indian Strategic Forces Command conducted its first user trial of the Agni-V in full operational configuration, whichwas rumoredto have tested MIRV technology. The MOD press release did not mention MIRVs.
If India succeeds in developing an operational MIRV capability for its ballistic missiles, it would be able to strike more targets with fewer missiles, thus potentially exacerbating crisis instability with Pakistan. If either country believed that India could potentially conduct a decapitating or significant first strike against Pakistan, a serious crisis could potentially go nuclear with little advance warning. Indian missiles with MIRVs would become more important targets for an adversary to destroy before they could be launched to reduce the damage India could inflict. Additionally, India’s MIRVs might prompt Indian decision-makers to try and preemptively disarm Pakistan in a crisis.
India’s other nuclear adversary, China, has already developed MIRV capability for some of its long-range missiles and issignificantly increasing它的核武库，这可能是印度追求MIRV技术的一个因素。两国之间的MIRV种族将对核力量水平和区域稳定产生重大影响。对于印度来说，MIRV能力将使将来更快地增加其核库存，如果是这样的话，尤其是如果其plut骨生产能力可以利用目前正在建设的不安全的育种反应堆。
Implications for India’s nuclear policy
印度长期以来一直遵守核无效（NFU）政策，并在2020年印度正式陈述that there has been no change in its NFU policy. Moreover, the Agni-V test launch in October 2021 was accompanied by areaffirmationof a “’credible minimum deterrence’ that underpins the commitment to ‘No First Use’.”
但是，同时，对NFU的保证是警告，，，，watered-down，，，，andcalled into questionby government statements and最近的scholarship。对印度战略力量的准备就绪和对MIRV能力的提高可能会进一步使印度遵守其NFU政策的遵守，并有可能使印度的核对手完全怀疑其NFU政策。
Given that Indian security forces have repeatedly clashed with both Pakistani and Chinese troops during recent border disputes, potentially destabilizing developments in India’s nuclear arsenal should concern all those who want to keep regional tensions below boiling point.
Background Information:
This article was made possible by generous support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the New Land Foundation, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and the Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors.
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