老化电子可能会限制核武器的可靠性

The use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic parts in nuclear weapons systems may reduce the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal over time as the electronics age in ways that are hard to predict, according toa newly disclosed report来自Jason Science咨询小组。

“Most of the electronic materials and components within a weapon system are electrically inactive for a majority of the system lifetime” — which in a nuclear weapon can last for decades. “Determining the reliability of successfully executing a highly demanding, short-duration, operational sequence for systems that have been dormant over extended time periods challenges our ability to model, predict, and meet system performance requirements,” the JASON report to the National Nuclear Security Administration said.

“目标-年后性能可靠of unmonitored storage poses difficult, and perhaps unrealistic, challenges for electronic components to electrical subsystems and systems, whether or not COTS materials are utilized.” SeeElectronic Materials Aging，Jason报告JSR-20-2B，2020年11月。

Jason小组提出了15个建议，以识别和检测电子故障模式并在美国核储备的长期条件下验证电子可靠性。

The characteristic failure modes of electronics that are dormant for decades differ from those that are in regular use. But the concern for reliability is of course not unique to nuclear weapons.

“The aeronautics, aerospace, automotive, and medical device industries face similar design and assembly challenges – to ensure reliable performance and extremely low failure rates in electronics built with commercial components, often for high-consequence applications,” the report noted.

Jasons说，NNSA应与国防部，NASA等人合作，以分享相关知识，并采用“专注材料研究和开发的前瞻性计划”。。。。只要消费电子设备继续迅速变化，这将保持重要意义。没有一劳永逸的解决方案可以解决与材料衰老和可靠性相关的挑战，而COTS电子系统的休眠时间很长。”

同时，NNSA还应追求“通过在现场进行的子系统测试进行定期监视的组件和子系统设计，以确保电子组件的可靠功能。”

The systematic adoption of COTS electronics within military programs was driven in part by a 1994 memo from Defense Secretary William Perry,“规格和标准 - 一种新的经商方式”，which encouraged DoD to increase reliance on commercial technology.

In the past, electronic components were specifically designed and fabricated for each weapon system, the JASONs noted. “Traditionally, in weapons systems, custom parts were used and strong control was exerted over the part manufacturers; reliability still had to be assessed.”

But today, “The military remains only a small fraction of the electronics market and so cannot alone be expected to drive new products, enforce quality, or improve reliability.”

As a result, “NNSA should view with skepticism expectations of long-term stability and reliability when adopting COTS electronic components whose design and manufacture were predicated on applications in commercial products with limited service lifetimes,” the JASONs said.

TheJASON reportwas released by NNSA on March 9 under the Freedom of Information Act with redactions of certain deliberative information “regarding the future of the Nuclear Weapons Program.”