B61-12：NNSA的镀金核弹项目

汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M. Kristensen）

昨天参议院拨款小组委员会的披露听力B61寿命延长计划（LEP）的成本要大得多，即使最近的成本超支也质疑国家核安全管理局（NNSA）管理该计划的能力，并应质疑B61 LEP本身。

If these cost overruns were in the private sector, heads would roll and the program would probably be canceled.

在昨天的听证会上，参议员戴安娜·费恩斯坦（Dianne Feinstein）透露，NNSA最近告诉她，他们在FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan太低了，他们将需要更多40亿美元才能完成该计划。两个月前我报告成本已增加到60亿美元。

NNSA的新成本估算已经受到挑战，这次是五角大楼的成本评估和计划评估（CAPE）办公室，仅几天前，该办公室的估计量增加了20亿美元，达到了100亿美元。

But get this: the already too high B61 LEP cost estimate does not include other pricy elements of the B61 modernization program. In addition to the LEP itself comes a new guided tail kit assembly that the Air Force is developing to提高准确性B61。该尾套件的成本估算最近从8亿美元增加到12亿美元增加了50％。

此外，为F-35联合打击战斗机配备具有新武器的能力的成本，最近估计约为3.4亿美元。但是，如果上面提到的LEP和尾部套件增加了任何迹象，那么将F-35配备核能的成本也可能会增加。

The escalating costs may eventually make the B61 LEP the most expensive nuclear weapons program (per warhead unit) in the U.S. arsenal. Already the projected B61 LEP cost far exceeds the cost of the W76 LEP, which probably involves three times as many warheads as will produced by the B61 LEP. As Nick Roth指出，新的100亿美元估计值相当于NNSA计划花在生活上的三分之二，在未来20年中，美国阿森纳的所有其他弹头类型都延长了所有其他弹头类型！

计划的B61-12的精确数量仍然是一个秘密。我的看法目前约为400。

由于B61 LEP的呈现方式，许多人的印象是该程序将延长B61的所有四个版本。实际上，这四个版本中只有一个将被延长：B61-4。它可能会从其他三个（B61-3/7/10）中蚕食成分，但是新的B61-12的心脏是B61-4核爆炸套件。以下图表更准确地说明了Stratcom一直在循环的简单图表：

Implications and Recommendations.

The fact that the B61-12 will use the B61-4 nuclear explosive package obviously limits the number of B61-12s that can be built to the number of B61-4 that were originally produced. That number is about 660. But most of those have been retired and only about 200 are thought to be left in the DOD stockpile. If B61-12 production is to exceed 200, then it would have to also use warheads from retired B61-4s. Given that the B61-12 will not be carried on the B-52 bomber, that B-2 bombers are probably not allocated a maximum load of weapons (they also carry others), and that the stockpile in Europe is likely to decrease within the next decade, it seems合理的假设B61-12库存约400个武器。但是这个数字是秘密的 - 不是因为它对国家安全很重要，而是因为它是核的。

The escalating cost of the B61 LEP adds to NNSA’s abysmal record of underestimating costs of nuclear weapons programs. It follows enormous budget overruns of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement – Nuclear Facility (CMRR-NF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, and the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) at the Y-12 National Security Complex at Oak Ridge in Tennessee.

如上所述，如果这些成本超支发生在私营部门中，则负责人将滚动，并且该计划可能会被取消。

Apart from poor planning, the B61 LEP cost escalation is probably also fueled by planners that appear to be drunk on promises of increased nuclear funding and political commitments to nuclear modernization. The result is an overly ambitious program that instead of doing basic life-extension of existing designs is trying to add exotic features and components to the weapon that was originally tested. And the planned B61-12 is not even the most ambitious version the planners had asked for (they were not allowed to add multi-point safety and optical firing sets), which would have been even more expensive.

If poor planning is not the reason, then NNSA must be working under the assumption that costs should be underestimated when seeking initial program approval from Congress because the taxpayers will have to pay for the cost increase later on anyway. To her credit, Senator Feinstein is pushing for greater program control andtoldAviation Weekthat the cost escalation will trigger additional congressional scrutiny. “We have to find a way to stop this from happening. …We’ve asked that we receive monthly reports, that one person be put in charge. … The purpose of that is to make people solve problems quickly, before they are left and they just continue to grow.”

B61 LEP并不是地平线上唯一或必然是最复杂的LEP。NNSA和DOD已经在计划W78 LEP和Envision Building“普通”弹头可以在ICBM和SLBMS上使用。这样的弹头目前不在库存中。尽管该设计仍在制定中，但它可以结合W78和W88功能，并使用第三弹头W87中的p坑。如果您担心B61 LEP的成本，请等待W78 LEP！国会是否准备授权每个外来LEP与更多基本LEP授权100亿美元？

但是，除了金钱外，不断升级的B61 LEP成本还必须提出有关任务重要性的疑问。尽管B-2战略轰炸机的战略任务可能毫无疑问，但非战略使命当然应该是。根据目前的计划，B61-12将安装在四架战术飞机上-F-15E罢工鹰，F-16 Falcon，F-35A Lightning和PA-200龙卷风。没有重要或紧急的威胁要求美国为所有这些战术飞机配备新炸弹。但是现代化将增加the military capability of NATO’s nuclear posture, not exactly in sync with the pledges from the White House and NATO to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and not increase military capabilities during LEPs.

And the few NATO officials that have either misunderstood their security requirements or been lobbied by nuclear cold warriors to support继续部署of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe need to be debriefed – or asked to pay their share. That would certainly end the deployment quickly.

无论前进如何，美国都应该逐步淘汰其剩余的非战略核武器，延迟并重新设计B61 LEP，并将其资源集中在维持战略性核武器和常规力量上，这些力量实际上是美国和联盟安全所需的战略性核武器和常规力量可以预见的将来。

This publication was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York and Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.