新空军情报报告可用

By Hans M. Kristensen

空军空军太空情报中心（NASIC）已发布了其更新Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat。我从NASIC获得的文档正在清醒阅读。

The latest update continues theprevioususer-friendly format and describes a number of important assessments and new developments in ballistic and cruise missiles of many of the world’s major military powers.

该报告还有助于消除许多有关中国，俄罗斯，印度和巴基斯坦核力量的网络骚扰。

在这个博客中，我将重点介绍核武器国家，尤其是中国。

中国核力量

As the DF-3A retirement continues (there are now only 5-10 launchers left of close to 100 in the 1980s), the liquid-fuel missile is being replaced by a family of solid-fuel DF-21 variants. The NASIC identifies four, including two nuclear versions (Mod 1 and Mod 2), one conventional version, and an anti-ship version that unlike the others is not yet deployed.

Thankfully, the report dispels widespread speculation by web sites, news media, and even Jane’s after images began circulating on the Internet, that a DF-25 had been deployed, some even said with three nuclear warheads. But it was, as I预料到的去年，NASIC现在证实，实际上是DF-21。

DF-21 Road-Mobile Launcher

在道路上，DF-21的一列可能是Delingha部署的列在青海省。其中几辆车辆具有相同的伪装图案，引起了人们对图像被操纵的怀疑。存在四个DF-21版本，两个核，一个常规版和一个反舰艇。图片：网络

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The report also reaffirms that the first of the DF-31s and DF-31As “have been deployed to units within the Second Artillery Corps,” and NASIC estimates that “less than 15” are deployed, up from the “less than 10” estimate in the Pentagon’s March 2009 report (which actually used 2008 data).

鼻子报告指出，中国的两种海底弹道导弹都没有运行。这表明去年完成的JL-1配备的Xia SSBN进行了多年大修，这是没有成功的。新的Jin-Class SSBN的继任导弹JL-2也没有达到操作状态。NASIC将JL-2授予美国名称CSS-NX-14，而不是JL-1的数值后续行动，该列为CSS-NX-3。“ 14”可能是错别字，但报告中出现了几个地方。JL-2显示出与俄罗斯SS-N-32 SLBM的尺寸大致相同。

NASIC lists single warheads on all of the Chinese missiles, not multiple warheads as speculated by many. “China could develop MIRV payloads for some of its ICBMs,” the report states. Yet it also predicts that, “Future ICBMs probably will include some with multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles.” Whether that prediction – which appears to hint that China has more ICBMs under development – comes true remains to be seen, and the U.S. intelligence community has stated for years that one development that could trigger it is a U.S. ballistic missile defense system.

该报告呼应了美国情报界其他分支机构的最新声明，即中国洲际弹道导弹的弹头数量能够到达美国，可以扩展到“在未来15年内远远超过100年”。Unfortunately, “well over 100” can mean anything so it is hard to compare this NASIC’s projection with the CIA projection from 2001 of 75-100 warheads “primarily targeted against the United States” by 2015. That projection only included DF-5A and DF-31A capable of targeting all of the United States, with the high number requiring multiple warheads on DF-5A. But the timeline for the anticipated increase has slipped considerably from 2015 to 2024.

美国对中国洲际弹道弹头的预测

美国情报界对中国的远程核武库的预测将继续下滑。单击图像以下载较大版本。

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此外,洲际弹道导弹“主要针对联合国ited States” is a smaller group of missiles than those “capable of reaching the United States,” which currently includes about 60 DF-4, DF-5A, DF-31 and DF-31A ICBMs with as many warheads. For this group to grow to “well over 100 warheads” suggests that NASIC anticipates that China will deploy at least 60-70 DF-31, DF-31A and JL-2 missiles by 2024 (the DF-4 will probably have been retired by then). Assuming that includes 36 JL-2s on three Jin-class SSBNs, an additional 20-30 total DF-31s and DF-31As would have to be deployed to reach 120 ICBM warheads. If five SSBNs were deployed, then only 10 additional land-based ICBMs would be required, or 30 if the 20 DF-5As were retired.

The DH-10 land-attack cruise missile is listed as “conventional or nuclear,” the same designation used for the nuclear and conventional Russian AS-4. But unlike the 2009 DOD report on Chinese military forces, which lists 150-350 DH-10s deployed with 40-50 launchers, NASIC lists the operational status as “undetermined.”

俄罗斯核力量

NASIC指出，“俄罗斯在洲际弹道机上保留了约2,000枚弹头”，这对于陆基的ICBM部队来说太多了，因此也可能包括SLBMS。由于武器控制协议，老化导弹和资源限制，洲际弹道导弹将继续减少。即便如此，据NASIC称，“俄罗斯可能会保留美国以外的最大的洲际弹道导弹”，并且“这些导弹中的大多数都保持警惕，能够在收到发射命令的几分钟内发射。”

根据NASIC的说法，多战头RS-24 ICBM不是新导弹，而是SS-27（Topol-M）的修改版本。

The NASIC report formally designates the “multiple” warhead RS-24 ICBM to be a modification of the SS-27 Mod 1. This has some significance because Russia under START is not allowed to increase the warhead loading on missiles declared under the treaty, but in anticipation of the treaty expiring in December 2009 apparently has been working on doing so anyway. The RS-24, which will exist in both silo and road-mobile versions, is not yet deployed but Russian military officials have said this will happen in December.

On the submarine force the modified SS-N-23 known as Sineva is listed as carrying the same number of warheads (4) as the original version, far less than the “up to 10” listed by NASIC in 2006 and by Russian news media. The range is listed as the usual 8,000+ km even though the Russian Navy claimed in October 2008 to have test-flown the missile to 11,547 km. NASIC also continues to list two remaining Typhoon-class SSBNs as capable of carrying the SS-N-20, even though the missile is reported to have been withdrawn from service. I suspect this is because the report uses START-counted missile tubes. A third Typhoon SSBN has been converted as a test platform for the SS-N-32/Bulava-30, and NASIC lists this submarine with 20 tubes for the new missile.

有趣的是，NASIC并未列出KH-102 Cruise导弹，这是传闻中正在开发的AS-15的替代者。

印度核力量

尽管印度新闻媒体报道和私人/ReportsReportscorporate institutes have reported for years that Agni I and Agni II were deployed, the NASIC report shows that operational deployment of the road-mobile Agni I SRBM has only recently begun, with “fewer than 25” missile launchers deployed. NASIC seems to back our评估从去年开始，当时的Agni II尚未全面运行，列出了部署的“少于10”的发射器。

Two short-range sea-based ballistic missiles are under development: Dhanush and Sagarika. Neither is operational yet, and NASIC safely estimates that the Sagarika will become operational sometime after 2010.

尽管印度新闻媒体关于开发具有核能力的巡航导弹的报道，ReportsReports但没有提及这种武器系统是由纳粹制造的。

巴基斯坦核力量

NASIC报告中列出的Road-Mobile Ghaznavi和Shaheen I SRBMS的发射器不到50个，而2,000 km Shaheen II MRBM尚未运行，但可能很快就可以。巴基斯坦似乎还开发了两枚具有核能力的巡航导弹：地面发射的巴布尔和空气发射的拉阿德。

Other Nuclear Weapon States

Although “friendly” nuclear weapon states are not included because they are not a “threat” to the United States, the report’s section on cruise missiles is nonetheless interesting because it – unlike the ballistic missile sections – describes weapon systems of “friendly” nuclear weapon states such as France and Israel. Yet nuclear systems, such as the French ASMP-A, are excluded. Israeli submarine-based cruise missiles, which have been rumored to have nuclear capability (I’m not convinced), are not included either.

奇怪的是，即使在两次核试验和情报界表示朝鲜拥有核武器十多年之后，鼻报告也没有将朝鲜的任何武器列为“核”或“常规或核”。也就是说，很有趣。

背景信息：2009年鼻报告|Previous NASIC reports