An Earthshot for Clean Steel and Aluminum
Summary
避免气候变化的最严重影响所需的动员和技术进步的规模最近导致美国政客援引新的21世纪“月球”的需求。奥巴马政府发起了阳光计划，以大大降低太阳能的成本，最近，能源部（DOE）宣布a series of “Earthshots”降低新兴气候解决方案的成本，例如长期储能。
While DOE’s Earthshots to date have been technology-specific and sector-agnostic, certain heavy industrial processes, such as steel and concrete, are so emissions- intensive and fundamental to modern economies as to demand an Earthshot unto themselves. These products are ubiquitous in modern life, and will be subject to increasing demand as we seek to deploy the clean energy infrastructure necessary to meet climate goals. In other words, there is no reasonable pathway to preserving a livable planet without developing clean steel and concrete production at mass scale. Yet the sociotechnical pathways to green industry – including the mix of technological solutions to replace high-temperature heat and process emissions, approaches to address local air pollutants, and economic development strategies – remain complex and untested. We urgently need to orient our climate innovation programs to the task.
因此，本备忘录提出了DOE发起的Steel Shot to drive zero-emissions iron, steel, and aluminum production to cost-parity with traditional production within a decade。换句话说，十年内零排放钢的零美元差异或十分为零。
挑战和机会
作为Biden-Harris政府历史努力的一部分quadruple federal funding为了清洁能源创新，DOE推出了series of “Earthshots”to dramatically slash the cost of emerging technologies and galvanize entrepreneurs and industry to hone in on ambitious but achievable goals. DOE has announced Earthshots for carbon dioxide removal, long-duration storage, and clean hydrogen. New programs authorized by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, such as hydrogen demonstration hubs, provide tools to help DOE to meet the ambitious cost and performance targets set in the Earthshots. The Earthshot technologies have promising applications for achieving net-zero emissions economy-wide, including in sectors that are challenging to decarbonize through clean electricity alone.
这样一个行业是重工业，一个臭名昭著的具有挑战性和排放密集型部门尽管造成了近三分之一的美国排放量，但联邦决策者的重点很少。在工业部门，铁和钢，混凝土和化学物质的生产是biggest sources of CO2 emissions，不仅是由于其繁重的能源需求而产生的气候污染，而且还来自其固有的过程（例如，水泥的熟料生产）。
同时，全球对这些产品更清洁版本的需求 - 现代社会的基本基础 - 正在上升。国际能源局（IEA）估计仅在未来三十年中，仅铁和钢生产中的二氧化碳排放量就需要从2.4 gt下降到0.2 gt，以满足零净排放的目标，即使是整体钢铁消费增加to meet our needs for clean energy buildout. Accordingly, by 2050, global investment in clean energy and sustainable infrastructure materials will grow to $5 trillion per year. The United States is well-positioned to seize these economic opportunities, particularly in the metals industry, given its long history of metals production, skilled workforce, the initiation of talks to reach基于碳排放的钢和铝业贸易协定，以及强大的劳工和政治联盟，支持恢复美国制造业领导。
“金属行业是经济繁荣，能源基础设施和国家安全的基础。它在所有50个州都有存在，直接雇用了超过500万人。金属行业还占国家气候排放的10％。”
Department of Energy request for information on a new Clean Energy Manufacturing Institute, 2021
然而,准确的将部署的解决方案to decarbonize heavy industry remain to be seen. According to the aforementioned IEA Net-Zero Energy (NZE) scenario, steel decarbonization could require a mix of carbon capture, hydrogen-based, and other innovative approaches, as well as material efficiency gains. It is likely that electrification – and in the case of steel, increased global use of electric arc furnaces – will also play a significant role. While technology research funding should be increased, traditional “technology-push” efforts alone are unlikely to spur rapid and widespread adoption of a diverse array of solutions, particularly at low-margin, capital-intensive manufacturing facilities. This points to the potential for creative technology-neutral policies, such as清洁采购计划, which create early markets for low-emissions production practices without prescribing a particular technological pathway.
因此，作为对“推动”有希望的清洁能源技术的土地曲线的补充，DOE还应考虑为工业部门采用技术中性的地球镜头，即使在其他地球上也可以找到相同的解决方案（例如。，氢）。对于DOE而言，要在确定一个或两个基本部门的纪律处分很重要，在这些部门中，机会是庞大且战略性的，以避免制定过度的balkanized部门策略。特别是，DOE应该从钢铁射击开始，以购买零排放的铁，钢和铝生产的成本，以在十年内与传统产量均等，同时增加了该行业的整体产量。换句话说，十年内零排放钢的零美元差异或十分为零。
The Steel Shot can bring together applied research and demonstration programs, public-private partnerships, prizes, and government procurement, galvanizing public energy around a target that enables a wide variety of approaches to compete. These efforts will be synergistic with technology-specific Earthshots seeking dramatic cost declines on a similar timeline.
Plan of Action
Develop and launch a metals-focused Earthshot:
- 设计并宣布与行业，劳工和社区密切合作的钢铁镜头。DOE应该拥有一系列带有行业，劳动力和社区的圆桌会议，以定义和计算零排放和传统生产之间的差距，通常称为“绿色高级”，用于清洁钢和铝。这应该纳入实现接近二氧化碳排放的措施，以及其他有害空气和水污染物的深度减少，以实现“十个目标中的零”目标 - 零排放钢的零美元差异在十年内。DOE应发射钢铁射击，并以主要的钢铁制造商和钢铁购买者（例如汽车制造商）的承诺。
- Calculate targets along the way to the decadal goal and define how success will be measured.After launching the new Earthshot, DOE should release a Request for Information (RFI) and use an initial Steel Shot Summit to compile projections for anticipated cost parity milestones along the way to the decadal target. DOE should plan to update assessments of the current “green premium” on a regular basis to ensure that research, development, and demonstration efforts are targeted at continued reductions in the cost of clean steel – not just improvements over the original baseline. To assess the emissions footprint of various steel production processes, DOE should work closely with the White House’sBuy Clean Task Force这项任务是制定建议，以提高透明度和围绕体现排放的报告，特别是通过环境产品声明。
- Hold an annual Steel Shot Summit to bring together technologists, industry, and financiers to share solutions and develop projects.DOE should hold an annual Steel Shot event to help to highlight existing innovation efforts underway and connect stakeholders. This summit will build on existing Eartshot stakeholder gathering efforts underway, such as the氢射击峰会和长时间存储射击峰会。
投资国内清洁炼钢的能力：
- 借助合作社应用研发和示范设施的资助，站起来是第七级清洁能源制造研究所。去年，Amo推出了请求信息建立了美国第七制造业工业脱碳研究所。RFI特别关注金属制造。在2022年，DOE应正式向研究所颁发资金机会，并要求该研究所在工业脱碳实践中进行合作研发，并为低和零零件制造过程开展制造示范和劳动力发展设施。
- Launch an annual competition for entrepreneurs and companies demonstrating low- and zero-emissions processes that reduce the green premium.Amo以阳光明媚的太阳能奖而建立，他可以发出一系列针对清洁金属挑战的较小规模的奖金。奖品对于挑战特别有效the desired end target is defined and clearly measurable, but the optimal solution to achieve this target is not yet known. The variety of潜在解决方案for steel decarbonization makes the sector an excellent candidate for a prize program with multiple rounds and awardees. DOE could consider subprograms within the Steel Shot prize that align with reducing key sources of emissions – EPA identifies thethree sources of emissionsas 1) process emissions, 2) direct fuel combustion, and 3) indirect emissions from electricity consumption.
- 通过立法直接投资于商业规模的解决方案。虽然奖品计划可以促进原型和试验阶段技术，但现实世界的演示和部署将减少清洁钢的成本。这些投资应在爆炸氧气炉，电弧形炉和新兴直接减少方法之间寻求一系列脱碳机会。他们还应确保联邦资金用于具有强大劳动力标准的项目，并以长期的优质美国炼钢工作为基础。原本的美国就业计划released by President Biden proposed ten “pioneer facilities” to demonstrate clean industrial processes, including steel. Several proposals included in House-passed bills, such as theBuild Back Better Act和美国竞争法，将提供新的当局，以资助采用干净制造技术的商业规模改造和首个设施。例如，修正案美国竞争扩展了《 2020年能源法》授权的工业脱碳路和D计划，其中包括“商业部署项目”。如果这些规定通过，可以将它们杠杆化来快速改造设施并实现钢铁射击的目标。
Create demand for “green steel” through market pull mechanisms:
- 将创新者和钢铁制造商与私人购买者相匹配，以产生对清洁金属的需求。Demand-pull incentives can reduce risk for U.S. steelmakers and move the innovations that emerge from DOE R&D and prize programs into commercial adoption, which is critical for additional “learning-by-doing” at scale. DOE can work with domestic industries that are major purchasers of steel to develop sector-based advanced market commitments as part of the Earthshot launch. For instance, DOE should leverage its relationships with major automakers with ambitious climate goals, such as Ford and GM, to spur auto sector commitments to purchasing clean steel. In developing these advanced market commitments, DOE can work with theFirst Movers Coalition, a consortium of private sector buyers of innovative, clean products, launched by the State Department and the World Economic Forum in Glasgow in 2021. They included both steel and aluminum in their initial round of target products.
- 利用联邦采购能力偏爱政府资助的项目，包括基础设施和国防。AMO和DOE的联邦能源管理计划应在执行联邦可持续性计划和采购工作组时，将通用服务管理局，国防部，交通部和其他主要联邦检察官提供建议于2021年12月宣布。例如，DOE可以利用Earthshot来提供有关购买清洁计划中包括的钢的合理成本的建议，并向创新者提供技术援助，以访问联邦清洁采购工作。
氢地球和碳负射击目标的较低技术价格是必要的，但不足以保证这些技术部署在产生最高的发射领域，例如钢，水泥和化学物质。实现价格降低的方法的正确组合仍然不确定，并且可能因植物，位置，过程，产品而异，如最近的麦肯锡研究关于整个工业部门的脱碳挑战。此外，部署新颖的解决方案的前期成本很高，私人资金者不愿冒险未经测试的技术。尽管如此，为避免制定过度balkanization的部门策略，对于DOE而言，要在确定一个或两个基本部门（例如金属）中，这将非常重要。
These products are ubiquitous and increasingly crucial for deploying the clean energy infrastructure necessary to reach net-zero. The United States of America has a long history of metals production, a skilled workforce, and strong labor and political coalitions in favor of restoring U.S. manufacturing leadership. Additionally, carbon-intensive steel from China has become a growing concern for U.S. manufacturers and policymakers; Chinaproduces56% of global crude steel, followed by India (6%), Japan (5%), and then the U.S. (4%). The U.S. already maintains a strong competitive advantage in clean steel, and the technologies needed to double-down and fully decarbonize steel are close to commercialization, but still require government support to achieve cost parity.
U.S. steel production is already less polluting than many foreign sources, but that typically comes with额外费用。减少“绿色高级”将有助于使美国金属生产商的竞争力保持竞争力，同时为越来越多地寻找绿色钢铁产品的买家的需求做好准备。最终用户，例如大众are aiming for zero emissions across their entire value chain by 2050, while Mercedes-Benz and Volvo have already begunsourcing low-emissions steel对于新的汽车。同时，欧盟正在准备实施碳边界调整机制这可能会导致美国的钢铁生产产品的价格更高。钢边界税的后果已经在钢铁协议中看到，例如最近的美国欧盟公告惩罚性关税下降彼此的钢铁和aluminum exports and to begin talks on a carbon-based trade agreement.
突破能量据估计，使用碳捕获的钢的“绿色溢价”比“正常”生产的钢高约16％ - 29％。由于可以使用多种流程来减少排放，因此有助于“绿色保费”，因此可能没有一个数字可以估计当前成本。但是，在可能的情况下，我们主张使用“绿色”生产的钢的现实世界数据来估计DOE与“传统”钢相比实现其基准目标有多近。
Do you have ideas that could inform an ambitious project that FESI has a comparative advantage pursuing? We want to hear it.
Friends of FESI have identified priority use cases to inform project ideas.
《筹码与科学法》对美国创新和基于地点的工业政策建立了令人信服的愿景，但是这种愿景已经受到严格的资金的阻碍。
以下是筹码和科学资金在与联邦预算的战斗中塑造的方式。