未来的核风险和威慑

In his April 2009 Prague speech, President Obama stated “clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” but went on to note that, “as long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary.” Our nuclear weapons themselves are safe — meaning that one is highly unlikely to go off by accident — but how safe is nuclear deterrence — threatening to destroy civilization in an attempt to preserve peace?

已被称为定量风险分析（QRA）的工程学科已成功应用，以提高许多其他可能灾难性情况的安全性。QRA使用有关部分游览的历史数据进入事故链以估计整体风险，并突出需要修复的失败机制。

QRA的例子包括：

• 福岛核危机：QRA已被应用，它会表明海墙太低了;
• 中国和日本正在扮演海军和空中鸡，众多无人居住的岛屿链，被称为可能导致冲突的尖头群岛。

马丁地狱博士斯坦福大学核风险分析和核风险分析教授的FAS高级研究员，讨论了当前的核风险以及如何用2013年11月4日在华盛顿特区举行的简报中减少这些风险。