在变暖US-NZ关系,过时的核波利奇y Remains Unnecessary Irritant

美国国防部长莱昂·帕内塔（Leon Panetta）与新西兰国防部长乔纳森·科尔曼（Jonathan Coleman）会面，在美国将近30年的两国关系正常化的第一步，在美国惩罚新西兰禁止核武器。

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汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M. Kristensen）

Hat tip to the Obama administration for doing the right and honorable thing: breaking with outdated Reagan administration policy and sending Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to New Zealand and缓解限制on New Zealand naval visits to U.S. military bases.

此举表明，在近30年的惩罚南太平洋国家因禁止核武器而遭受核武器的禁令之后，华盛顿最终可能会引起人们的意识，并决定为了更重要的问题而结束仇杀。金博宝正规网址

The New Zealand defense minister made it quite clear that the move does not mean a change to New Zealand’s policy of denying nuclear warships access to its harbors. “New Zealand has made it very clear that the policy remains unchanged and will remain unchanged.”

这一举动是否（或多久）将导致美国海军访问新西兰的访问还有待观察。美国海军仍然有两项政策似乎可以阻止这一点。一项是“单级”政策，认为如果有任何美国船只受到该地区的限制，它将避免将任何船只送到那里。另一个既不是确认也不是拒绝政策（NCND），该政策禁止披露军舰是否携带核武器，而当这样的事情很重要时，冷战剩下的。

These policies leave an irritant in place that doesn’t need to be there. It seems that both countries can makes modifications to their policies to allow normal military relations to resume.

需要改变的冷战政策

Panetta’s visit to New Zealand is the first by a U.S. defense secretary in 30 years since the gong ho nuclear policy of the Reagan administration threw New Zealand out of the Australia-New Zealand-US (ANZUS) alliance for refusing to accept visits by nuclear-armed warships to its ports. The treatment of New Zealand was intended as a warning to countries not to dare enforce their non-nuclear policies. As former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Leslie Gelb diplomatically put it in theNew York Times当时：“除非我们将盟友脚踩在船上探访和核部署上大火，否则将逃走，然后再逃跑。”

At the core of the dispute is the so-called Neither Confirm Nor Deny Policy (NCND), according to which the U.S. will not reveal – directly or indirectly – whether nuclear weapons are present on a warship, an aircraft, or on a base. The policy emerged in the 1950s as a way to counter anti-nuclear and left wing demonstrations in Europe during port visits. Later it was re-coined as a way to protect ships against terrorist attacks and to complicate Soviet military planning. Spin aside, the central objective was always to ensure unfettered access for U.S. warships to foreign ports – no matter the nuclear policy of the host country. (For a chronology of the NCND policy, see:既不确认也不否认政策：工作中的核外交).

在冷战期间，美国军舰挤满了非战略核武器。炸弹，防空火箭，防空导弹，陆地攻击导弹，深度炸弹和鱼雷在海上航空母舰，巡洋舰，驱逐舰，护卫舰，供应船和攻击潜水艇上不断在海上海上航行。每天，其中一些人都驶入世界各地的外国港口。针对苏联的全球姿态部署战争部分，该战争还在其舰队上部署了非战略核武器（英国和法国也有类似的姿势）。

The NCND was a brilliant diplomatic arrangement. The host country could have whatever nuclear policy it wanted and the United States could continue to visit its ports with nuclear-armed warships. The only problem with the NCND was that it put allied governments with non-nuclear policies in an unreasonable dilemma: one, reject the visit or ask the United States to deny that the ship carried nuclear weapons; or, two, turn a blind eye and accept that nuclear weapons come in on warships once in a while.

这种困境是NCND的肮脏小秘密：它不仅要求美国对武器的负担含糊不清，而且还要求东道国接受对军备的歧义。当然，让东道国接受歧义与禁止其领土上的核武器的政策不相容。

新西兰是第一个拒绝接受这种歧义的盟国。它在1984年采取了一项禁止进入核武器和核侵蚀船只的法律。该法律不要求美国确认或否认船上是否有核武器（这是广泛的误解）；它仅要求新西兰政府本身做出决定并宣布其决定。但是，这样的公告与NCND不相容，该公告要求东道国对自己所知道的一切保持沉默。

The USS Buchanan (DDG-14) arrives in Sydney, Australia, in March 1985 after it was barred from visiting New Zealand.

When the U.S. wanted to send a warship to New Zealand in the spring of 1985, it could have sent a warship that was not nuclear-capable (in fact, the News Zealand government asked the U.S. to do so, but it refused). But that would not have fully tested New Zealand’s adherence to the NCND. So the Reagan administration decided to send the guided missile destroyer USS Buchannan (DDG-14), which was equipped to carry nuclear ASROC missiles. This visit was to be followed by several other ships, some of which most likely carried nuclear weapons.

The New Zealand government turned down the request and the Reagan administration retaliated by throwing New Zealand out of the ANZUS alliance, curtailing intelligence sharing, and prohibiting New Zealand warships from visiting U.S. military and Cost Guard facilities in the region. In effect, the Reagan administration chose to sacrifice an ally in a part of the world where the military implications were limited to prevent the anti-nuclear “allergy” from spreading to other more vital parts of the world.

策略失败了。1988年，核港口访问问题triggered an election in Denmark，在1990年，瑞典理事会决定在其领土上执行瑞典禁止核武器确定的研究尽管禁令，但美国军舰通常将核武器运送到瑞典港口。

而不是保护核战舰的工具and ensuring allied security, the NCND policy became a lightening rod for political controversy and soured relations with U.S. allies all over the world. Whenever a nuclear-capable warship sailed into a foreign port on a “goodwill visit,” the thorny issue of whether it carried nuclear weapons and the host government being seen as turning a blind eye to violations of its own non-nuclear policy overshadowed the goodwill the U.S. and the host government were trying to demonstrate.

今天，即使它毫无希望地过时和适得其反，该政策仍在继续。1992年的第一个布什政府从美国地面船上删除了所有非战略核武器，并从1992年攻击潜艇 - 有效地使核港口访问问题变得模拟了。此外，克林顿政府于1994年决定无核化所有美国地表船。自1992年以来，唯一剩下的非战略海军核武器 - 战斧陆战巡航导弹（TLAM/N）已被存储在陆地上，现在正在废弃。（俄罗斯还卸载了其海军非战略核武器，英国完全消除了其库存。）

恢复正常关系是可能的

There is nothing that prevents restoration of normal U.S.-New Zealand military relations. Yet even though the non-strategic nuclear weapons have been offloaded and the U.S. surface fleet denuclearized, there are still Cold War warriors inside the bureaucracies who argue that it is necessary to maintain ambiguity about what U.S. warships carry and that no warship should sail where others are rejected.

Likewise, given that the U.S. surface fleet has been denuclearized and the last non-strategic naval nuclear weapon is being retired, there is no problem in the New Zealand government ascertaining – even publicly – that visiting U.S. warships do not carry nuclear weapons.

需要对新西兰的军舰访问需要核歧义的政策是不必要的和适得其反的，应废除。希望他们不会长时间胜任。美国军舰再次开始访问新西兰只是时间问题，帕内塔必须命令海军停止在没有的地方假装歧义：美国军舰不再携带核武器。

同时，美国驻惠灵顿大使馆可能想更新fact sheeton New Zealand-U.S. relations, which doesn’t seem to have caught up with Panetta’s visit:

“New Zealand’s legislation prohibiting visits of nuclear-powered ships continues to排除与美国的双边安全联盟。该立法在新西兰享有广泛的公共和政治支持。美国欢迎新西兰重新评估其立法，以允许该国重返全安祖斯合作。” (Emphasis added).

我认为那艘船已经航行了。