Ambitious Warhead Life Extension Programs

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尼克拉斯·罗斯（Nickolas Roth），汉斯·克里斯汀森（Hans M. Kristensen）和斯蒂芬·杨（Stephen Young）

Note: This is thesecondof four posts analyzing theFY 2012 Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan, each jointly produced by the Federation of American Scientists and Union of Concerned Scientists. See the other posts:1,3,4.

根据2012财年的股票管理管理计划（SSMP），从2011年到2031年，国家核安全管理局（NNSA）计划在生命扩展计划（LEPS）上花费近160亿美元，以延长服务寿命，并显着修改所有弹头，并在所有弹头上修改。持久的库存。这包括估计在W88弹头上的37亿美元，B61炸弹的39亿美元，W78弹头42亿美元，W76弹头17亿美元，W80-1弹头的23亿美元。

These figures do not include almost $11 billion in additional NNSA expenses simply to maintain the stockpile, outside of the LEP programs. This brings total spending on nuclear warheads over the next twenty years to $27 billion. These budget figures reflect a significant investment in maintaining and modifying the nuclear stockpile.

2012财年SSMP包含大量图，其中包括该图，该图采用了从图中产生的图形FAS和UCS的样式our analysis2011财年计划。

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The FY2012 SSMP provides one possible indication that LEP programs are becoming more ambitious and will incorporate more intrusive changes to the warheads. For each weapon type, different variants are designated by a modification, or “Mod” number, as indicated by a hyphen followed by a number at the end of the warhead type, e.g., B61-7 is the “B61 Mod 7.” Only significant changes would result in a new Mod number. For example, the W87 warhead underwent a LEP a decade ago that fixed several structural issues but did not receive a new Mod number. The original warhead designs did not used to have a Mod designation, but the FY12 SSMP lists all the existing warhead types that did not previously have a Mod designation with a “-0” extension. This seems to indicate that all LEPs will now produce warheads with new Mod numbers, apparently in anticipation of significant modifications.

这些日益侵入性的修改是由提高弹头设计的安全性，安全性和可靠性的既定要求驱动的。直到某种程度上，这项努力享有广泛的国会和白宫的支持 - 所有人都可以反对提高核武器的安全，安全性和可靠性？NNSA和实验室正在使用这些要求作为创建广泛的模拟，设计，工程和生产计划的主要理由，尽管其产量比冷战期间较小，但在技术上的能力更大。

The SSMP describes how this capability will provide a “comprehensive science basis underpinning deployment of new safety technologies in the stockpile.” This goal also improves the justification of existing facilities—and those still coming on-line—such as DARHT, NIF, Omega, and the Z machine. NNSA’s goal is to incorporate an enormous array of new safety, security, and use control features in almost the entire stockpile by 2031.

这些技术的细节，它们的理由和成本在很大程度上被公开审查隐藏了。列出了现有弹头类型的安全性，安全性和可靠性功能（弹头）（弹头）的表格，该表包含在SSMP的机密附件B中。（有关可能安装在美国弹头上的安全和安全功能的列表，请参见这里。独立于任何威胁场景.

This pursuit of a wide range of surety improvements justifies the need for substantial warhead modifications and additional production and simulation capabilities. Yet there must be a point of diminishing returns, where the potential improvements are not justified by the monetary costs or the risks to the reliability of the stockpile.

的确，股票经理和设计师曾经警告不要修改弹头，并指出这样做可能会破坏对无需核试验而可靠地预测武器性能的信心。但是弹头修改现在是库存管理管理计划的核心目标。确实，LEPS，2012财年SSMP的目标是提供“维护和修改未来储备”(强调)。Modification—not just maintenance—of the enduring stockpile has become a core objective. Interestingly, the SSMP bluntly acknowledges that such modifications of the warheads will reduce confidence in the reliability of the stockpile by changing warheads from the designs that were tested:

“具有积极的ST＆E [科学，技术和工程]计划正在取代……经验因素[用于基于地下核试验的校准模拟代码]，具有经过科学验证的基本数据和物理模型来预测能力。随着库存由于衰老而继续变化通过纳入现代化功能，以增强安全性和安全性，校准模拟的有效性降低了，raising the uncertaintyand need for predictive capability. Increased computational capability and confidence in the validity of comprehensive science-based theoretical and numerical models will allow assessments of weapons performance in situations that were not directly tested.” (Emphasis added).

但是，NNSA对广泛修改所有弹头的热情可能超出了国会和奥巴马政府的整体支持。此类异议的基础清楚地在2010年奠定了核姿势审查, which states explicitly that the United States “will study options for ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of nuclear warheads on a case-by-case basis.” (p. xiv). This seems to contradict NNSA’s pursuit of every available surety feature for every warhead.

在关注问题的示例中，2011年5月政府问责办公室（GAO）报告on the B61 LEP raised red flags about the NNSA’s proposed changes to the bomb. The report expressed concern about the scope of the LEP, noting that it was the first ever that sought to simultaneously refurbish multiple components, enhance safety and surety, and make other design changes. The report noted that some of the proposed new surety features, such as multipoint safety, have never been used in existing stockpile weapons.

Multipoint safety seeks to lessen the chance of an accidental nuclear explosion if the conventional explosive accidentally ignites at more than one point nearly simultaneously. The current one-point safety requirement mandates that the risk of a nuclear detonation be no greater than one in a million if the conventional explosive accidentally ignites at one point, which the SSMP acknowledges is an “extraordinarily high reliability requirement.” As the GAO notes, warheads in the current stockpile do not have multi-point safety, and even the NNSA does not consider the technology mature.

由于这些问题，参议院拨款委员会最近金博宝正规网址对B61 LEP表示关注。委员会的报告指出“ NNSA计划合并untried technologies and design features为了提高核储存的安全性和安全性。”（重点添加）。该报告在表示支持改善的保证人的同时指出，“不应以长期武器可靠性为代价”。由于这种担忧，委员会将B61 LEP的资金减少了几乎20％，并要求对拟议的安全和保障功能进行独立评估，以及对它们的成本效益分析。

人们感觉到，由于国会停止了可靠的替换弹头，NNSA就安全和保障抓住了，这是允许重大弹头修改并赢得大量资金的肯定原因。根据新参议院的调查结果，NNSA可能会发现国会将走多远，即使在改善安全性的金票上，国会将走进多远。

关于作者：尼克拉斯·罗斯（Nickolas Roth）是军备控制和不扩散中心的政策研究员，马里兰大学的研究生汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M.Young是有关科学家联盟的高级分析师。

See also:FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan|本系列的上一个博客

This publication was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York and Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.