188金宝搏官网是多少 >Strategic Security >美国战略潜艇巡逻队继续以冷战节奏
美国战略潜艇巡逻队继续以冷战节奏
|
| U.S. ballistic missile submarines conducted 31 nuclear deterrent patrols in 2008 at an operational tempo comparable to that of the Cold War. |
.
By Hans M. Kristensen [updated]
美国拥有14枚核动力弹道导弹潜艇的舰队在2008年以与冷战期间相当的运营节奏进行了31次核威慑巡逻。
新的巡逻信息,来获得的m the U.S. Navy under the Freedom of Information Act, coincides with the completion on February 11, 2009, of the 1,000th deterrent patrol by an Ohio-class submarine since 1982.
该信息表明，美国每年进行的核威慑巡逻比俄罗斯，法国，英国和中国的合并更多。
按数字巡逻
The 31 patrols conducted in 2008 top a 48-year history of continuous deterrent patrols. Since the USS George Washington (SSBN-598) departed Charleston, S.C., on the first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) patrol on November 15, 1960, 59 SSBNs have conducted 3,814 patrols through 2008 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: |
|
| The annual number of SSBN patrols has fluctuated significantly over the years as submarines entered and left the fleet. Most patrols today occur in the Pacific Ocean. The reduction since 2000 is due to retirement of four SSBNs and lengthy modernization of four others. (click image for larger version) |
.
The annual number of patrols has fluctuated considerably over the years, peaking at 131 patrols in 1967. Declines occurred mainly due to retirement of SSBNs rather than changes in the mission. The retirement of the early classes of SSBNs in 1979-1981 almost eliminated patrols in the Pacific, but the new Ohio-class gradually rebuilt the posture. The stand-down of Poseidon SSBNs in October 1991 and the retirement of all non-Ohio-class SSBNs by 1993 reduced Atlantic patrols by nearly 60 percent. The patrols increased again in the second half of the 1990s and more Ohio-class SSBNs were added to the fleet, but started dropping from 2000 as four Ohio-class SSBNs were withdrawn from nuclear missions and four others underwent lengthy backfits from the Trident I C4 to the Trident II D5 Trident missile.
Figure 2: |
|
The United States conducts more SSBN patrols than all other nuclear powers combined. China’s SSBNs尚未进行威慑巡逻. |
During the Cold War standoff with the Soviet Union, the vast majority of patrols were done in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the early 1990s, patrols in the Atlantic have plummeted and the SSBN force been concentrated on the west coast. The majority of U.S. SSBN patrols today occur in the Pacific.
The current number of patrols is significantly greater than the patrol levels of other countries with sea-based nuclear weapon systems. In fact, the U.S. navy conducted three times the number of SSBN patrols that the Russian navy did in 2008, and more patrols than Russia, France, Britain and China combined (see figure 2).
High Operational Tempo
Although the total annual number of SSBN patrols has decreased significantly since the end of the Cold War, the operational tempo of each submarine has not. Each Ohio-class SSBNs today conducts about the same number of patrols per year as during the Cold War, but the duration of each patrol has increased, with each submarine spending approximately 50-60 percent of its time on patrol (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: |
|
| The operational tempo of U.S. SSBNs today is as high as it was during the Cold War. Interesting spikes occurred during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the collapse of the Soviet Union. (click image for larger version) |
.
The high operational tempo is made possibly by each SSBN having two crews, Blue and Gold. Each time a submarine returns from a patrol, the other crew takes over, spends a few weeks repairing and replenishing the boat, and takes the SSBN out for its next patrol.
The data also reveals a couple of interesting spikes of increased patrols in 1963/1965 and 1991. The reasons for this increased activity is not known but the periods coincide with the Cuban missile crisis and the failed coup attempt in the final days of the Soviet Union in 1991.
检查数据的另一种方法是查看每年的潜艇和车队每年如何巡逻日。在冷战期间，较大的潜艇舰队平均每年约6,000个巡逻日，在1967年的高峰为8,515个巡逻日。在后冷战时代，由于SSBN舰队的规模，该表现平均下降到3,400天减少。随着四个SSBN从核行动中删除，另外四个经历了冗长的导弹回合，舰队的总巡逻日现在已降至2200多一点（见图4）。
图4： |
|
| 虽然今天的SSBN舰队累积了今天的巡逻日远比冷战期间少得多，因为舰队较小，但每艘潜艇在巡逻队上的时间都像冷战期间一样多。（单击更大版本的图像） |
.
Yet total patrol day numbers can be deceiving because they can obscure how each submarine is doing. Because the Ohio-class SSBN design was optimized for lengthy deterrent patrols, the average number of days each submarine spends on patrol has been higher in the post-Cold War period than during the Cold War itself. Patrols can be shortened by technical problems, but many Ohio-class submarines today stay on patrol for more than 80 days. Last year, the USS Maine (SSBN-741) conducted a 98-day patrol in the Pacific.
What is a Deterrent Patrol?
SSBN威慑巡逻队是一项扩展的运营部署，在此期间，潜艇涵盖了其指定的目标包，以支持战略战争计划。俄亥俄州每辆巡逻队通常持续60-90天，但2008年底的一艘潜艇进行了98天的延长巡逻，巡逻队偶尔超过100天。有时，巡逻队会因技术问题而缩短，在这种情况下，可以在短时间内部署另一个SSBN。结果，今天的巡逻平均持续约72天。
进行巡逻并不意味着潜艇不断地淹没在机场，并将目标处于危险之中。实际上，当潜艇没有在俄罗斯，中国或地区州处于危险中的危险中时，大部分巡逻时间都用于在Homeport，巡逻地区巡航，与其他海军锻炼，进行检查和认证，进行检查和认证，执行武器系统准备测试（WSRT），进行重新定位练习以及指挥和控制练习。
Another activity involves so-called SCOOP exercises (SSBN Continuity of Operations Program) where the SSBN will practice replenishment or refit in forward ports in case the homeport is annihilated in wartime. In the Pacific, the SCOOP ports include Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (see Figure 5), Guam, Seaward, Alaska, Astoria, Oregon, and San Diego, California. In the Atlantic they include Port Canaveral and Mayport, Florida, Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico, and Halifax, Canada. The SSBN may even return to its homeport and redeploy a day or two later on the same patrol.
Figure 5: |
|
| 亨利·M·杰克逊（Henry M. Jackson）（SSBN-730）在2008年3月对夏威夷的勺子访问期间，在经过四年的大修之后，在2008年3月对夏威夷的勺子访问期间，在珍珠港加载了新鲜水果，并进行了为期四年的巡逻，并现代化了Trident II D5弹道导弹。 |
.
尽管巡逻通常在他们开始的基地结束，但并非总是如此。离开华盛顿海军潜艇基地班戈（Bangor）的SSBN可能会在机场上待几个星期，在警报操作区域内进行几周，进行各种培训和锻炼，然后到达夏威夷的珍珠港。短暂的港口访问和补充后，潜艇通常恢复其巡逻，并最终返回班戈。但是有时巡逻队将在夏威夷结束，作为SCOOP练习的一部分，将乘坐新的船员来代替旧船员，然后在向前的位置进行重新装修。然后，SSBN在新的巡逻队上离开夏威夷，在警报操作区域内驻扎，进行更多的练习和检查，并最终返回新巡逻队结束的班戈。
这种类型的巡逻队在其中允许潜艇做更多的超过车站行动的巡逻有时被描述为“修改警报”，并说与冷战不同。但是SSBN从未一直都在机场，大多数已部署的潜艇都在机场警报区域和其他非ALERT操作之间运输。实际上，“修改的警报”巡逻可以追溯到1970年代初。
在当前舰队中的14个SSBN中，通常在任何给定时间进行大修。在其余的12艘潜艇中，在任何给定时间将在巡逻中部署8-9。其中有四个（每个海洋中的两个）处于“硬警报”状态，而4-5个非ALERT SSBN可以在相对较短的时间内提高警报水平。一到三个SSBN在国内基地进行了改装，为他们的下一次巡逻做准备。
SSBN遇到硬警报不断在俄罗斯，中国和区域州的风险设施中持有，估计有384枚Trident II D5导弹的核弹头在收到发射命令后可以在“几分钟”内发射。根据战略战争计划的任务选择“目标套餐”中的目标，今天被称为运营计划（OPLAN）8010。
What is the Mission?
But why, nearly two decades after the Cold War ended, are 28 crews ordered to sail 14 SSBNs with more than 1,000 nuclear warheads on 30-plus patrols each year at an operational tempo comparable to that of the Cold War?
官方说法是,上个月由Secr如上所述etary of the Navy Donald Winter during the celebration of the 1,000th Ohio-class deterrent patrol, that “the ability of our Trident fleet to [be ready to launch its missiles] 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, has promoted the interests of peace and freedom around the world….Since the beginning of the nuclear age, the world has seen a drastic reduction in wartime deaths.”
Figure 6: |
|
STRATCOM commander General Kevin Chilton (left) and Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead. General Chilton says SSBNs deter not only nuclear conflict but “conflict in general” and are “as equally important today, as they ever were during the height of the Cold War.” |
The warfighters add more nuances, including Commander Jeff Grimes of the Trident submarine USS Maryland (SSBN-738) who at the start of a recent deterrent patrol explained it toNavy Times: “There are nuclear weapons in the world today. Many nations have them. Proliferation is possible in the growing technologies societies have. The power of the deterrent is the knowledge that the capability exists in the hands of controlled people. So on a global scale, deterrence is showing how it’s working every day. We haven’t had a global, world war, in a long time,” he said. “Intelligence is different, the threats are different, so we do adjust the planning and contingencies for strategic operations continually to face the threats that may or may not be seen….We’re there on the front line, ready to go,” Grimes declared.
STRATCOM commander General Kevin Chilton, who in a war would advise the president on which nuclear strike options to use, said recently that although some people thought the Trident mission would end with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the SSBNs “are as equally important today, as they ever were during the height of the Cold War….The application of deterrence can actually be more complicated in the 21st century, but some fundamentals don’t change,” he said and added: “And it is not just to deter nuclear conflict. These forces have served to deter conflict in general, writ large, since they’ve been fielded.”
这些是每个SSBN产生的一些指挥历史中也提出的强烈而多样的主张。他们中的一些人指出，使命是“维持世界和平”，在冷战后时代，这确实不是这种情况。其他人将其描述为“提供战略威慑以防止核war” (my emphasis), which sounds more credible. But even in that case, can we really tell whether it is the SSBNs that prevent nuclear war and not the ICBMs or bombers?
维持世界和平，防止战争和防止核战争要求官员更清楚地阐明SSBN任务之间的巨大差异。为此，很高兴听到为什么要在每年30多个巡逻队上需要12次运营SSBN，其中超过1,100枚核弹头来阻止对美国的核攻击，但只有3次巡逻队的核攻击，但只有3次弹头的SSBN，六个弹头少于6次。每年巡逻以保护英国。
Figure 7: |
|
| USS Maryland (SSBN-738) departs Kings Bay on February 15, 2009, for its 53rd deterrent patrol in the Atlantic Ocean to prevent nuclear war, prevent world war, deter conflict, maintain world peace, promote the interests of peace of freedom, deter proliferators, in a mission that remains“equally important…as during the height of the Cold War,” depending on who is describing it. |
.
Last year Russia’s SSBNsreturned to seaat a level not seen in a decade and it plans to build eight new Borey-class SSBNs with new multi-warhead missiles. France is completing its fourth Triomphant-class SSBNs also with a new multi-warhead missile, and Britain has announced plans to build four new SSBNs. China is building 3-5 new Jin-class SSBNs with 8000-kilometer missiles, and India is said to be working on an SSBN as well. The U.S. Navy has also begun design work on its next ballistic missile submarine to replace the Ohio-class.
简而言之，核大国似乎在推荐自己在海洋中部署大量核武器的时代。大多数人倾向于将海洋核武器视为三合会中最合法的腿。然而，在所有战略性核武器中，基于海洋的弹道导弹是最难追踪的，是在危机中与之交流最有问题的导弹，这是在武器控制协议中最难验证的，唯一可以潜入对手的人在一次惊喜攻击中。
If the Obama administration wants to decisively move the world toward “dramatic reductions” and ultimately the elimination of nuclear weapons, then it must seek answers to these issues. In the short term, it needs to ask whether the Cold War operational tempo of U.S. SSBNs is counterproductive by sending a signal to other nuclear weapon states that triggers modernization of their forces and makes reductions harder to achieve than otherwise. In other words, what is the net impact of the SSBN patrols on U.S. national security objectives in an era of pursuing nuclear disarmament?
Addition Resources:俄罗斯次巡逻|中国次巡逻
_____________________________________________________________