Another Nuclear Trade Deal, This Time with Russia

与所有由美国印度核贸易协议, the Russianequivalent，上周提交的，几乎创建了一个波纹[警告：要下载的大文件]。While FAS strongly opposes the US-Indian nuclear trade agreement, the Russian case is much more complex.

There are reasons to oppose the Russian deal and reasons to support it.The calculation is further complicated because some of the reasons, in my opinion the primary reason, for opposing the deal are not because of specific problems with the deal,本身, but because the deal is a surrogate for the全球核能伙伴关系(GNEP), which is itself a breathtakingly bad idea.

Under theAtomic Energy Act, the president must submit to Congress the framework for trade before nuclear materials and technology can be shared with any particular country.该要求在该法案的第123节中阐明，因此通常称为123个协议。The United States has them with many countries.据说，协议草案将提交给国会30天的“咨询”，在此期间国会可以提出更改，然后提交最终协议。If the president has not exercised any waiver authority, then the Congress has 60 days to pass a resolution by both houses to block the agreement.If the Congress does nothing, the agreement goes into effect.[This 123 agreement, like other past agreements, is entirely different from the Congressional perspective from the Indian nuclear deal.In an earlierblog, I explained how, if the president does not invoke waivers, then the Congress has to specificallydisapprovethe deal or else it automatically goes through but if the president invoked certain waivers, then the Congress has to specifically批准the deal.Russia is a recognized nuclear weapons state, a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, signatory of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and founding member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty so there is no need for any waiver from the president.]

The resolution to block the agreement is a normal piece of legislation so, like any other bill, is subject to veto.因此，如果总统确实想要该协议，则只能被两分之二的三分之二所阻止。In other words, at this stage, the Congress has very little leverage; nevertheless, asCarah Ong写道，国会内部存在重大反对。(Note that in practice the 30 day and 60 day periods are combined.咨询与国会并不是当前的高级stration’s forte so the agreement is just offered up, take-it-or-leave-it, to be acted on within 90 days.)

国会开始对俄罗斯123协议进行行使，这主要是因为俄罗斯参与了伊朗核计划，主要是他们在布希尔的反应堆上的工作。Congressman Markeyhas drafted aresolutionof disapproval of the deal.The Senate is considering S.970,《伊朗反扩散法》，这将使123协议所设想的与俄罗斯的合作类型不可能。

I believe that the Russians have, overall, been responsible in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program and have come up with some innovative ideas.他们建议伊朗建造并运营their uranium gas-centrifuge enrichment plant on Russian soil, and they have insisted on leasing, rather than selling, to Iran the fuel rods for Bushier, including the future return to Russia of the plutonium-laced spent fuel rods.Cooperation on Bushier has been suspended at certain points to apply pressure on Iran to comply with IAEA demands.俄罗斯在伊朗的整体活动一直符合国际原子能机构条件。Russia’s work to complete the Bushier reactor and supply it with fuel is completely separate from the Iranian gas centrifuge program, which almost everyone outside Iran believes is designed to be a part of a covert or at least latent nuclear weapon production capability. Russia certainly has not automatically fully supported every US goal with respect to Iran but they, like the British and French, have provided a communications path and have negotiated with Iran in support of goals that are broadly supported by the international community.There is no question that we, meaning not just the United States but the world, need to deal with Iran to stop their nuclear weapons program.There arebold initiativesthat the United States could lead.The main problem with Iran is not Russia.可能有理由反对俄罗斯123协议，但伊朗不是一个。

关于反对协议的论点比伊朗更好。我非常关注政府的全球核能伙伴关系或GNEP。This is an ill-conceived, proliferation-prone, premature, economically unjustified, and ecologically disastrous plan to reprocess plutonium from civilian nuclear reactors that, if carried through, could easily prove to be the greatest technological debacle in the nation’s history.The Russians are big proponents of reprocessing and the 123 agreement clearly is intended to pave the way for future cooperation on reprocessing.The agreement states that the parties will not just allow but “shall facilitate” nuclear trade.The agreement allows the transfer of nuclear technology, including reprocessing technology and the transfer of spent fuel and foresees the reprocessing of shipped nuclear waste.

第3款第2款指出：“各方应促进……核材料的贸易……以及与核燃料周期有关的服务……”“服务”可能包括燃料制造和plut木后续处理，而第8条则专门允许plototonium和，以及，以及，以及第8条。此外，特别认识到可以根据该协议交易的材料生产p。Article 9, however, goes on to state that nuclear materials traded under the agreement can be altered “in form or content” only with permission of the parties.That seems to refer to reprocessing.So the agreement recognizes reprocessing of each other’s nuclear waste as a possible allowed activity but further discussion would be needed to actually carry it out.As I understand the requirement, that follow-on agreement would not need further Congressional approval.

因此，这笔交易在很大程度上是为了支持gnep.This is the latest in a series.每当某个国家签署GNEP时以任何方式提交资源。This is a well-worn political gambit:internationalize a shaky program so that supporters can later claim that canceling the program would be an embarrassment internationally, the United States must stick by its commitments, and so on.If you want to know what the administration’s real priorities are, ignore what it says and look at where it spends its money.将支持国际铀燃料库的资金和贫血的努力与它要求过早建立后处理工厂的数亿美元的资金和贫血努力进行比较。

Even if backdoor support for GNEP were the primary motivation for the Russian agreement, I do not think that it is worthwhile to spend a lot of effort fighting the agreement.投资直接与GNEP作斗争的努力将更加有效。显然，如果俄罗斯123协议未能通过，GNEP仍将是政府的重中之重。Killing this agreement will do little or nothing to slow GNEP.

There are other, second-order reasons to object to the agreement, mostly for what it fails to do rather than what it does.This could have been an opportunity to increase openness in the Russian plutonium economy, to more cleanly separate Russian military and civilian plutonium inventories, to expand the number of both Russian and American civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, and to enhance opportunities for a verifiableFissile Material Cutoff Treaty.这些事情都没有。The agreement is an opportunity lost but that is not a strong reason to oppose it.

There are some reasons to support the agreement.俄罗斯人认为该协议很重要，如果国会不批准该协议，那是俄罗斯面对的外交拍摄。（有人可能会争辩说俄罗斯变得如此thugk，以至于偶尔需要拍打。I think we should still work to maintain civil relations with Russia.)Russia is still in a good position to be very helpful with Iran and I hope that in the next administration we could begin talking to the Russians about major reductions in nuclear weapons and ambitious non-proliferation efforts.Of course, this is yet another example of where the administration has created a既成事实and, with no prior consultation, expected the Congress to acquiesce.This case is not as egregious as the on-going train wreck that is the Indian deal but it is an unfortunate way of doing business.

The agreement allows some forms of research that may be useful.In myanalysis在GNEP计划中，我要小心地指出，物理学的工作原理与广告宣传。The problem is with the engineer and the economics.gnepis, literally, several decades premature.但是我是一个技术乐观主义者，所以我愿意允许所有这一切都有意义的可能性，也许是在2070年。许多在国会中，即使他们反对重新加工，也希望支持研究。Reprocessing, a bad idea now under any circumstance, is totally insane without the fast neutron reactors needed to burn the transuranic fuel.因此，任何研究计划的一部分都必须是快速反应堆。No problem, the DOE tells us, we will build fast neutron reactors for research purposes.Dick Garwin其他人回答：not so fast, the Russians already have fast neutron reactors.For just a few percent of the cost of building our own reactor, we could collaborate with the Russians to use their reactors to test new fuels and new materials in a fast neutron environment.This agreement would allow for that type of collaboration, which might undercut arguments for building a new fast reactor in the United States, which would be an expensive mistake.

I cannot say I support the Russian 123 agreement but I think opposition is barking up the wrong tree.如果我们担心伊朗，我们应该直接解决伊朗问题，而不是反对123作为代理人。那些反对GNEP的人应该投入精力直接与GNEP作斗争，而不是123人作为GNEP的代理人。We have to also keep in mind that the debate is probably moot since, even with strong opposition in Congress, the chance of getting a veto-proof majority is remote.The deal will most likely go through but GNEP requires specific positive votes from Congress or the money doesn’t appear and fighting GNEP has shown good results in the past;国会将政府过去的要求减少了一半以上。我将继续集中精力。