188金宝搏官网是多少 >战略安全 >Two More Chinese SSBNs Spotted
Two More Chinese SSBNs Spotted
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中国似乎又推出了两个SSBN。 |
汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M. Kristensen）(BLOG UPDATED OCTOBER 10, 2007)
China appears to have launched two more ballistic missiles submarines from the Bohai shipyard at Huludao approximately 400 km east of Beijing. This could bring to three the number of Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) launched by China in the past three to four years.
The two submarines were discovered during analysis of newly published commercial satellite images on Google Earth. This is the second time in three months that FAS has discovered new Chinese ballistic missile submarines on commercial satellite images. The first time was in July 2007, when the first Jin-class wasdisclosedon the FAS Strategic Security Blog.
The submarines on the new image have the same dimensions as the previous submarine.
So How Many Do They Have?
Whether China has now launched two or three Jin-class SSBNs is still unclear. The image of the first SSBNdiscovered2007年7月，在Xiaopingdao于2006年10月17日被带走。新形象of the two SSBNs at Huludao was taken six and a half months later on May 3, 2007. One possibility is that the Xiaopingdao SSBN returned to Huludao for repair or further adjustment and was captured on the 2007 photo together with the second SSBN. Another possibility is that the two Huludao SSBNs are indeed the second and third boats of the new Jin-class SSBN.
The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligenceestimated2006年12月，“将建造五个094型SSBN的车队，以便为几乎连续的ATSEA SSBN存在提供更多的冗余和能力。”中国尚未说出它计划建造多少SSBN，并且没有公众可用的权威信息证实中国计划建造五个SSBN。它可能会，但是如果决定三个或四个就足够的话，它也可能会更少。
Some Implications
新晋级)ssbn singl添加e and unsuccessful Xia-class (Type 092) that China launched in 1982. The Xia hasnever conducted a deterrent patroland its operational status is in doubt. The rapid launch of two or three Jin-class SSBNs indicate that the Chinese navy feels confident it has overcome at least some of the technical problems that curtailed the Xia.
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Comparison of Chinese SSBNs discovered on commercial satellite images made available on Google Earth since 2005 show clear differences between the Xia-class (Type-092) and the new Jin-class (Type 094). The roughly 23-meter missile compartment on the Xia (top) has been extended to about 34 meters on the Jin-class. The Jin-class photographed at Xiaopingdao (second from top) and the two at Huludao have the same dimensions, indicating that China has launched at least two boats. To download larger image, click on the image above orhere. |
Each Jin-class appears to have 12 launch tubes for the new Julang-2 sea-launched ballistic missiles that are currently under development. If Julang-2 and three Jin-class SSBNs become fully operational, it would enable China to deploy up to 24 ballistic missiles at sea, assuming one boat would be in overhaul at any given time (and the Xia is still not operational). The range of the Julang-2 is estimated by the US intelligence community at more than 8,000 km (4,970+ miles), which brings Hawaii and Alaska (but not the continental United States) within reach from Chinese territorial waters.
Despite many rumors on the Internet about multiple warheads on Julang-2, the long-held assessment by the US intelligence community is that the Julang-2 will be a single-warhead missile.
Whether China plans to deploy a continuous sea-based deterrent is unknown. It appears doubtful because it would break with the Chinese practice of not deploying fully operational nuclear missiles. Nuclear warheads for China’s land-based missiles are believed to be stored separate from the missiles, although this has never actually been verified for the entire force. If the submarines deployed into the Pacific (like U.S. and to a smaller extent Russian SSBNs) it would also break with Chinese policy of not deploying nuclear weapons outside Chinese territory. An alternative would be to operate the SSBNs as a surge capability, intended to deploy in a crisis.
