中国重组北方核导弹发射场

By Hans M. Kristensen

China has significantly reorganized facilities believed to be launch sites for nuclear ballistic missiles near Delingha in the northern parts of Central China, according to commercial satellite images analyzed by the Federation of American Scientists.

这些图像表明，以前认为已在该地区部署的较旧的液体燃料导弹可能已被新的固体燃料导弹所取代。从这些地点，这些导弹在三个洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）田地和俄罗斯中部南部的轰炸机基地范围内。

变化分析

The Chinese launch sites, which are located at an elevation of approximately 10,000 feet (3,000 meters), are in an area that for years has been rumored to be a deployment area for liquid-fueled DF-4 long-range nuclear ballistic missiles. In November 2006, FAS andNRDC出版中国核力量和美国核战争计划，其中使用卫星图像描述了两个发射场。附近的其他几个明显的站点没有任何基础设施，许多人似乎被废弃了。

南部发射场的变化最大。在2005年后，该地点似乎是一个大型导弹车库，大约40座小型建筑物（可能是乘员宿舍）和超过六辆服务卡车。门也可见。在2006年末的新图像中，所有这些功能都消失了，在发射台上只能看到一辆服务卡车，并且该通道似乎已经铺好了（见下文）。

Thesecond launch site一些2.5英里(4.3公里)北陈也ged significantly, but here operations appear to have increased. In late-2005, this site included what appeared to be a missile garage, an underground facility, approximately 15 buildings, and less than a dozen service trucks of various sizes. The new satellite image from late-2006, however, shows that the large garage has been removed, the number of buildings nearly doubled, the access roads paved, and work appears to be in progress next to the underground facility (see below).

最有趣的是，清晰可见的是八辆13米卡车在发射台上排成一列。卫星图像没有足够高的分辨率来确定卡车及其特征，但它们与10米DF-21中距离弹道导弹的六轴运输式竖井发射器（TELS）非常相似。在拖车上的一条模糊的线向后三分之二类似于用于将导弹罐用于垂直位置的液压泵的位置。

更改其他Delingha网站

The two launch sites described above are the most actively visible in the satellite images. But there are more sites that appear to be involved in missile operations. North along the main road is what appears to be five smaller dispersed parking or launch platforms. None of these sites had any vehicles or infrastructure visible in 2005, but the new image shows one 13-meter truck present at four of the five sites. One of the sites appears to be upgrading with new access roads, a building, and half a dozen service vehicles (see right).

在距离地点1和2约10英里（17公里）的西部地区，是通往山脉的另一条路。沿着这条路，可见八个可能的分散发射场。在这些地点，看不到13米高的卡车，建筑物或其他车辆。

The DF-21 Medium-Range Ballistic Missile

The DF-21 is a medium-range ballistic missile estimated by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to have a range of approximately 1,330 miles (2,150 kilometers). It is China’s first solid-fueled ballistic missile andbelievedto carry a single warhead with a yield of 200-300 kilotons. Full operational deployment began in 1991. The missile is approximately 33 feet (10 meters) long and launched from a six-axle transporter erect launcher (TEL). Two versions of the missile are deployed, according to the DOD. Some might have been converted to carry conventional warhead.

The Defense Intelligence Agency estimated in 1996 that the DF-21 was expected to complement and possibly take over the strategic targeting role of the DF-3 by 2000. But introduction was slow. Whether this is now happening, and whether the DF-21 is also replacing DF-4s in some roles is unknown. The DOD’s annual report on China’s military power for years showed great uncertainty about the number of DF-21s, the 2006 report listing a range of 19-50 missiles on 34-38 launchers. The2007 report但是，在34-38发射器上列出了40-50枚导弹，这表明国防部认为导弹的数量有所增加，而发射器数量保持不变。

Uncertainties and Implications

重要的是要警告说，没有公开信息可以证实Delingha网站是弹道导弹的发射站点，或者确实是13米的卡车确实是DF-21发射器。首先，这些站点的变化可能是常规的，因为中国几乎所有的弹道导弹都是移动的，并且支持部门旨在跟随发射器，无论他们走到哪里。其次，传闻中的DF-4部署在该地区可能是错误的，或者DF-21可能在几年前就已经迁移了，但现在仅公开可见。美国和俄罗斯间谍卫星可能每天都在监视Delingha的变化，并对网站上发生的事情提供了更详细的了解。

Yet the indications that the DF-21 is deployed at Delingha appear to be strong. And if the dozen 13-meter trucks visible on the satellite images at Delingha indeed are DF-21 TELs, then 32-35 percent of China’s estimated inventory of DF-21 launchers are deployed in central China.

DF-21的直径范围为1,330英里（2,150公里），DF-21将无法从Delingha到达美国的任何基地，但他们将能够在包括新德里在内的整个印度北部保持风险。此外，这也许是该发现的最有趣的含义，DF-21将在蒙古另一侧的三个主要俄罗斯ICBM田野范围内：Novosibirsk和Irkutsk附近的SS-25领域，SSS-18Uzhur和Belaya的反火轰炸机基地。

尽管针对新德里的目标对于像中国这样的非出现报复性姿势的态度可以被认为是正常的，但针对俄罗斯洲际弹道导弹田地和空中基地将是朝着反石姿势的方向迈出的一步。但是，再次，尚不清楚Delingha导弹的作用，而DF-21可能不够准确，无法对硬化的俄罗斯洲际弹道导弹筒仓构成严重的风险。无论目标如何，Delingha似乎都非常活跃。

One of the most striking features about the sites is their high vulnerability to attack. All appear to be almost entirely surface-based facilities (although Site 2 has an underground structure), and a mobile missile launcher is extremely vulnerable once it has been discovered. The sites were possible DF-21 launchers were detected are located within a distance of about six miles (10 kilometers). A single high-yield nuclear warhead would probably be sufficient to neutralize the entire force visible in the images.

但是，对手甚至可能不必越过核阈值。一只装有无核JDAM炸弹的美国B-2轰炸机（看这个视频）可能足以消除图像中看到的十几个发射站点。美国已开始to incorporate such advanced conventional weapons into its strategic strike plans to give the president “more options.” Since China has repeatedly pledged that it “will not be the first to use such [nuclear] weapons at any time and in any circumstance,” some might conclude that a conventional strike on Chinese nuclear forces would not trigger Chinese use of nuclear weapons. But whether Beijing (or anyone else) would indeed stand idle by as its nuclear forces were taken out by conventional weapons is highly questionable.

Background:中国核力量和美国核战争计划|Delingha on Google Earth