增加核轰炸机行动

汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans M. Kristensen）

CBS’s 60 Minutes programRisk of Nuclear Attack Risesdescribed that Russia may be lowering the threshold for when it would use nuclear weapons, and showed how U.S. nuclear bombers have started flying missions they haven’t flown since the Cold War: Over the North Pole and deep into Northern Europe to send a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The program follows last week’s programThe New Cold War从内布拉斯加州奥马哈空军基地的Stratcom指挥中心展示了观众前所未有的录像。

Producer Mary Welch and correspondent David Martin have produced a fascinating and vital piece of investigative journalism showing disturbing new developments in the nuclear relationship between Russia and the United States.

他们足够慷慨地咨询我，并将我包括在计划中，讨论日益严重的冷战和危险的军事姿态。

Nuclear Bomber Operations Context

Just a few years ago, U.S. nuclear bombers didn’t spend much time in Europe. They were focused on operations in the Middle East, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Despite several years of souring relations and mounting evidence that the “reset” with Russia had failed or certainly not taken off, NATO couldn’t make itself say in public that Russia gradually was becoming an adversary once again.

Whatever hesitation was left changed in March 2014 when Vladimir Putin sent his troops to invade Ukraine and annexed Crimea. The act followed years of Russian efforts to coerce the Baltic States, growing and increasingly aggressive military operations around European countries, and explicit nuclear threats against NATO countries getting involved in the U.S. ballistic missile defense system.

Granted, NATO may not have been a benign neighbor, with massive expansion eastward of new members all the way up to the Russian border, and a consistent tendency to ignore or dismiss Russian concerns about its security interests.

But whatever else Putin might have thought he would gain from his acts, they have awoken NATO from its detour in Afghanistan and refocused the Alliance on its traditional mission: defense of NATO territory against Russian aggression. As a result, Putin will now get more NATO troops along his western and southern borders, larger and more focused military exercises more frequently in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea, increasing or refocused defense spending in NATO, and a revitalization of a near-slumbering nuclear mission in Europe.

Six years ago the United States was this close to pulling its remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons out of Europe. Only an engrained NATO nuclear bureaucracy aided by the Obama administration’s lack of leadership prevented the withdrawal of the weapons. Russia has complained about them for years but now it seems very unlikely that the modernization of the F-35A with the B61-12 guided bomb can be stopped. The weapons might even get a more explicit role against Russia, although this is still a controversial issue for some NATO members.

但是，美国军方更愿意将其在欧洲扩展威慑任务的核部分以战略轰炸机为基础，而不是在那里部署的短期战斗机轰炸机。非战略性核武器非常有争议，容易受到东道国无数政治观点的影响。战略轰炸机没有这种约束。

新的Stratcom-Eucom链接

因此，即使在今年夏天在华沙峰会上北约之前，也决定振兴其对核威慑的承诺，前美国欧洲指挥官（EUCOM）指挥官General Philip Breedlove told Congress2015年2月，EUCOM已经“与北约地区练习之间建立了Stratcom Bomber保证与威慑[BAAD]任务之间的联系”，这是大西洋行动决心阻止俄罗斯的一部分。

不到两个月后，即2015年4月1日，有四个具有核能力的B-52H轰炸机从他们在美国的基地中夺走了，并在对俄罗斯的模拟罢工中飞越了北极和北海。轰炸机在回到美国之前，一直延伸到他们的潜在发射点，以发射空气发射的巡航导弹。自1980年代后期对苏联以来，就没有进行这样的练习。这四个轰炸机结合在一起，本可以用800枚广岛炸弹的爆炸力综合发射80枚远程核巡航导弹。

Despite its strategic implications, Polar Growl also had a distinctive regional – even limited – objective because of the crisis in Europe. Planning for such regional deterrence scenarios have taken on a new importance during the past couple of decades and they have become central to current planning because it is in such regional scenarios that the United States believes it is most likely that nuclear weapons could actually be used.

“The regional deterrence challenge may be the ‘least unlikely’ of the nuclear scenarios for which the United States must prepare,” Elaine Bunn, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy,in 2014 predictedonly a few weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, “and continuing to enhance our planning and options for addressing it is at the heart of aligning U.S. nuclear employment policy and plans with today’s strategic environment.”

炸弹袭击者从极地咆哮返回两周后，美国战略，计划和能力的美国国防部助理部长罗伯特·谢尔（Robert Scher）告诉国会: “We are增加DOD’s focus on planning and posture to deter nuclear use in escalating regional conflicts.” This includes “enhanced planning to ensure options for the President in addressing the regional deterrence challenge.” (Emphasis added.)

核常规整合

Much of this increased planning involves conventional weapons such as the new long-range conventional JASSM-ER cruise missile, but the planning also involves nuclear. In fact, conventional and nuclear appear to be integrating in a way they have done before. This effort wasdescribed recently by Brian McKeon, the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, during the annual STRATCOM Deterrence Symposium:

In the Department of Defense we’re working to effectively integrate conventional and nuclear planning and operations. Integration is not new but由于最近的发展以及我们如何看到潜在的对手为冲突做准备，我们正在重新关注它。这是奥马哈的重点真正领先的领域，我想赞扬Haney和Stratcom海军上将能够将计划如此迅速地转向这种方法and thinking though conflict. No one wants to think about using nuclear weapons and we all know the principle role of nuclear weapons is to deter their use by others. But as we’ve seen, out adversaries may not hold the same view.

让我清楚地说，当我说集成I do not mean to say we have lowered the threshold for nuclear use or would turn to nuclear weapons sooner in a conventional campaign。As we stated in the Nuclear Posture Review, the United States will “only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.” The NPR also emphasized the importance of reducing the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, a requirement that has been advanced in our planning consistent with the 2013 Nuclear Employment Guidance, including with non-nuclear strike options.

What I mean by integration issynchronizing our thinking across all domains in a way that maximizes the credibility and flexibility of our deterrent through all phases of conflict and responds appropriately to asymmetrical escalation。For too long, crossing the nuclear threshold was through to move a nuclear conflict out of the conventional dimension and wholly into the nuclear realm。潜在对手正在探索横的方法s this threshold with low-yield nuclear weapons to test out resolve, capabilities, and Allied cohesion. We must demonstrate that such a strategy cannot succeed so that it is never attempted. To that endwe’re planning and exercising our non-nuclear operations conscious of how they might influence an adversary’s decision to go nuclear。

我们还计划在核环境中正在进行的美国和盟军运营的可能性以及致力于增强传统操作以核攻击的弹性。经过making sure our forces are capable of continuing the fight following a limited nuclear use我们为总统保留灵活性。通过明确准备对手有限的核用途并为总统提供可靠的选择，我们首先加强了威慑力量并降低了就业风险。

区域核场景不再主要涉及针对布什政府所谓的“流氓国家”（例如朝鲜和伊朗）的计划，而是越来越重视近人对手（中国）和对手（俄罗斯）。“我们在常规方面非常谨慎地作为北约联盟的一部分，并作为NPG [核计划小组]的一部分进行会议，研究北约应为俄罗斯违反《 INF条约的违反条约》应采取的措施，”Scher explained。

STRATCOM last updated the strategic nuclear war plan (OPLAN 8010-12) in 2012 and is currently about to publish an updated version that incorporates the changes caused by the Obama administration’s从2013年核就业策略。

两个月前，即Polar Growl一年多了，又推出了一次轰炸机罢工。这次，六个轰炸机（4个B-52和2 B-2s）飞向俄罗斯，同时飞越北极海，北海，波罗的海和北太平洋。六个极地咆哮的排序需要24 KC-135油轮以及E4-B高级机载指挥所和E-6B Tacamo核指挥和控制飞机的加油支持。

The routes (see below) were eerily similar to the铬圆顶机载警报路线这是由1960年代对苏联的核武器轰炸机飞行的。

This publication was made possible by a grant from the New Land Foundation and Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.