文件显示

By Hans M. Kristensen

根据2001年9月对恐怖袭击美国的恐怖袭击，2001年的核姿势审查（NPR）和白宫指导，导致了针对寻求获取大规模杀伤性武器的地区国家的新核罢工选择。军事规划文件obtained by the Federation of American Scientists.

关于这种选择的谣言已经存在多年了，但该文件是第一个权威证据，表明对俄罗斯和中国以外的大规模杀伤性武器的恐惧促使布什政府通过命令军方准备一系列新的新的，从针对区域扩散剂的核罢工的选择。

Responding to nuclear weapons planning guidance issued by the White House shortly after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, U.S. Strategic Command created a series of scenario driven nuclear strike options against regional states. Illustrations in the document identify the states as North Korea and Libya as well as SCUD-equipped countries that appear to include Iran, Iraq (at the time), and Syria – the very countries mentioned in the NPR. The new strike options were incorporated into the strategic nuclear war plan that entered into effect on March 1, 2003.

新的罢工选择的创造与政府官员的陈述相矛盾，他们坚持认为NPR没有改变美国的核政策，而是降低了核武器的作用。

Non-Denial Denials and a Few Hints

当部分2001 Nuclear Posture Review（NPR）在洛杉矶时报在March 2002, government officials responded by playing down the importance of the document and its effect on nuclear planning. And officials have since continue to credit the NPR with reducing the reliance on nuclear weapons.

NPR是“不是计划，不是一项计划计划”，然后是参谋长Richard B. Myers联席会议主席在sisted on CNNthe day after the NPR was leaked. “It’s a policy document. And it simply states our deterrence posture, of which nuclear weapons are a part….And it’s been the policy of this country for a long time, as long as I’ve been a senior officer, that the president would always reserve the right up to and including the use of nuclear weapons if that was appropriate. So that continues to be the policy.”

A formal陈述国防部发表的消息补充说，NPR“不提供有关核靶向或计划的运营指南”，但军方只是“继续计划各种意外事件，并对美国及其盟友造成了不可预见的威胁。”

Most recently, on October 9, 2007, Christina Rocca, the U.S. permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament,告诉the First Committee of the U.N. General Assembly that the United States has been “reducing the…degree of reliance on [nuclear] weapons in national security strategies….It was precisely the new thinking embodied in the NPR that allowed for the historic reductions we are continuing today.”

然而，一些官员在2002年暗示相同的指导扩大了核计划。当时的国务卿科林·鲍威尔（Colin Powell）在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）上说：“那里有国家发展大规模杀伤性武器。”面对国家。他说：“审慎的计划者必须考虑到总统应为他应对这类威胁的选择范围。”

解密的美国战略司令部（Stratcom）文件显示，NPR的“新思维”的第一个结果之一是创建了针对地区国家的一系列新核罢工选择。

一系列区域选择

The 26-page declassified document, an excerpt from a 123-page STRATCOM briefing on the production of the 2003 strategic nuclear war plan known as OPLAN 8044 Revision 03, includes two slides that describe the planning against “regional states.” The first of these slides lists a “series of [deleted] options” directed against regional countries with weapons of mass destruction programs. The planning is “scenario driven,” according to the document. The majority of the document deals with targeting of Russia and China, but virtually all of those sections were withheld by the declassification officer.

The names of the “regional states” were also withheld, but three images used to illustrate the planning were released, and they leave little doubt who the regional states are: One of the images is the North Korean Taepo Dong 1 missile; another image shows the Libyan underground facility at Tarhuna; and the third image shows a SCUD B short-range ballistic missile. The SCUD B image is not country-specific, but the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center report弹道导弹2003年的威胁列出了12个国家 /地区的Scud B导弹：白俄罗斯，保加利亚，埃及，伊朗，哈萨克斯坦，利比亚，朝鲜，叙利亚，土库曼斯坦，乌克兰，越南和也门。其中有五个被列为NPR中的“直接，潜在或意外的意外事件……设定核罢工能力的要求”的例子：伊朗，伊拉克，利比亚，朝鲜和叙利亚。

包括区域nuclear counterproliferaiton strike options into the国家的(strategic) war plan is a new development because such scenarios have normally been thought to reside at a lower level than the national strategic plan, which has traditionally been focused on targeting of Russia and China. During the 1990s, STRATCOM developed adaptive planning capabilities that enabled quick production of strikes against “rogue” states if necessary, but “there were no immediate plans on the shelf for target packages to give to bombers or missile crews,” a former senior Pentagon official told华盛顿邮报在2002年。OPLAN8044修订03通过向核力量产生可执行的罢工选择来改变这一点。

The “target base” for the regional states is outlined in the STRATCOM document, but everything except the title has been withheld. But the target base probably included weapons of mass destruction, deep, hardened bunkers containing chemical or biological weapons, or the command and control infrastructure required for the states to execute a WMD attack against the United States or its friends and allies. The U.S. Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy (NUWEP) that entered into effect one year after OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 stated in part: “U.S. nuclear forces must be capable of, and be seen to be capable of, destroying those critical war-making and war-supporting assets and capabilities that a potential enemy leadership values most and that it would rely on to achieve its own objectives in a post-war world.”

建立“目标基础”表明，该计划比使用一种或几种武器的简单报复性惩罚更进一步，但设想了旨在消灭各种设施的实际核战争，以便剥夺各州发射和战斗的能力与WMD。新计划将战略核靶向从两个对手（俄罗斯和中国）扩大到总共七个。

Iraq presumably disappeared from the war plan again after U.S. forces invaded the country in March 2003 – only three weeks after OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 went into effect – and discovered that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction. Libya presumably disappeared after December 2003, when President Muammar Gaddafi declared that he was giving up efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction.

然而，针对伊朗，朝鲜和叙利亚的核罢工计划大概是从2004年10月开始的下一个OPLAN 8044修订版，该计划仍在2007年7月生效。

该地区的新指南

The STRATCOM document indicates that National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD)-14 signed by President Bush on June 28, 2002, was the key While Houseguidance这导致将罢工选择的战略核战争计划纳入了针对区域扩散剂的罢工选择。

Very little has been disclosed about NSPD-14, except that it laid out Presidential nuclear weapons planning guidance and provided broad overarching directions to the agencies and commands for nuclear weapon planning. As such, NSPD-14 might have been replacing Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-60 signed by President Clinton in November 1997 as the primary White House guidance for nuclear weapons planning. PDD-60 reportedly also required planning against proliferators, but the new strike options incorporated into Revision 03 were “notable changes” compared with the previous plan, according to the STRATCOM document.

从NSPD-14是其他几个重要的流出guidance documents that deepened the commitment to targeting regional proliferators. The first was the JSCP Transitional Guidance in June 2002, which directed changes to the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP). JSCP includes a nuclear annex or supplement, known as JSCP-N, that give detailed nuclear planning guidance to the unified and regional commanders. The new JSCP-N was published on October 1, 2002. Another document was the NUWEP (Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy) Transitional Guidance signed on August 29, 2002, which led to the publication of NUWEP-04 in April 2004.

Three months after NSPD-14, on September 14, 2002, President Bush also signed NSPD-17 (National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction), a directive that articulated a comprehensive strategy to counter nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. NSPD-17 reaffirmed that, if necessary, the United States will use nuclear weapons against anyone using weapons of mass destruction against the United States, its forces abroad, and friends and allies, according toWashington Times。但是，NSPD 17的最高秘密附录专门名为伊朗，叙利亚，朝鲜和利比亚，是新战略的主要重点的国家之一，而选择包括核武器。这些选项与OPLAN 8044修订03.华盛顿邮报，这是“传统的非扩散失败的结论，现在我们正在积极进行拦截。”NSPD-17有时也称为抢占学说。

区域罢工计划也进入了草案联合核行动的学说（联合出版物3-12），，，，which was under preparation within the military at the time Revision 03 was created. Yet the doctrine showed that planning went beyond retaliation and included preemptive strikes. The second draft from March 2005 listed five scenarios where use of nuclear weapons might be requested:

• 反击an adversary打算使用weapons of mass destruction against U.S., multinational, or allies forces or civilian populations;
• 反击an imminent attackfrom an adversary’s biological weapons that only effects from nuclear weapons can safely destroy;
•攻击敌对装置，包括大规模杀伤性武器，含有化学或生物武器的深层，硬化的掩体，或对手对美国或其朋友或其朋友和盟友进行WMD攻击所需的指挥和控制基础设施；[这可能是OPLAN 8044修订版03中的“目标基础”•为了应对潜在的压倒性对手常规力量；
•证明美国的意图和使用核武器来阻止对手WMD使用的能力。

在我透露了这一发展之后an article在今天的武器控制2005年9月和华盛顿邮报跟进有了一个头版的故事，包括众议院武装部队委员会现任主席在内的16名国会议员作出了反应写作to the president to object to what they considered to be a “drastic shift in U.S. nuclear policy.”

Embarrassed by the exposure, the Pentagon取消not only the draft doctrine (and four other related doctrine documents) but also the existing Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations document that had been publicly available on the Joint Chiefs of Staff web site for a decade. A Joint Staff official explained that the documents would not be published, revised or classified, explaining that that they had been found not to be real doctrine documents but “pseudo doctrine” documents discussing nuclear policy issues. The public “visibility led a lot of people to question why we have them,” he said.

From SIOP to OPLAN 8044: A “Family of Plans”

没有迹象表明取消联合核操作文件的学说改变了核政策。解密的Stratcom文件将OPLAN 8044修订版描述为“朝着新的三合会和未来战争计划迈出的过渡步骤”。在2001年NPR创造了“新三合会”短语之前，这种过渡就开始了很长时间，并逐渐将最重型的自动独立单一集成运营计划（SIOP）转变为更广泛的罢工选项，适用于更广泛的方案范围反对更多的对手。当修订03的准备工作于2002年3月开始时，战略核战争计划的战斗就业部分仍然被称为SIOP，但必须更改该名称以反映新兴的众多罢工选择。

当联合工作人员开始审查新的战争计划时，Stratcom指挥官詹姆斯·埃利斯（James Ellis）海军上将wrote迈尔斯将军认为，SIOP这个名字没有正确描述新计划。“STRATCOM is changing the nation’s nuclear war plan from a single, large, integrated plan to a family of plans applicable in a wider range of scenarios,” Ellis explained with a reference to Revision 03. The first STRATCOM commander, General George Lee Butler, had尝试过在1992年更改名称，但没有运气。巴特勒想将名称更改为国家战略响应计划。十一年后，埃利斯海军上将再次尝试。他说，SIOP的名字是冷战的遗产。

This time, the JCS chairman was more receptive. On February 8, 2003, only one month before Revision 03 went into effect, General Myers授权Stratcom正式更改名称，以反映“新计划”的创作。然而，迈尔斯（Myers）担心混乱可能会“在基本的USSTRATCOM OPLAN 8044和该Oplan的战斗就业部分之间发生，目前称为SIOP”。他认为，该解决方案是继续致电OPLAN 8044的基本计划，但结合了OPLAN 8044修订版（FY），以描述当前称为SIOP的计划的部分。修订号（FY）将与制定的就业计划生效的财政年度相对应。OPLAN 8044修订版2003年3月1日是第一个携带新名称的计划。

The new strike options apparently were carried forward into OPLAN 8044 Revision 05, the next strategic war plan that entered into effect on October 1, 2004. This plan was described as a “major revamping” of the U.S. strategic war plan, which, according to General Myers, “provides more flexible options to assure allies, and dissuade, deter, and if necessary, defeat adversaries in a wider range of contingencies.” OPLAN 8044 Revision 05 was still in effect as of July 2007 (for a chronology of U.S. nuclear guidance and war plans under the Bush administration, go这里）。

Claims About Reducing Reliance On Nuclear Weapons

官员经常信用NPR有如果gnificantly reduced the reliance on nuclear weapons in U.S. nuclear policy. The basis for this claim is that non-nuclear capabilities also should play a role in deterring potential adversaries, an goal exemplified by the incorporation of conventional strike options into OPLAN 8044 Revision 05, the war plan than followed OPLAN 8044 Revision 03, and the removal of Russia as an “immediate contingency.”

“The United States has set in motion an entirely new way of looking at the role of nuclear weapons in our defense strategy,” Jackie W. Sanders, U.S. Ambassador and Special Representative of the President for the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons,告诉2005年的核不扩散条约》审查会议。“I speak, Mr. Chairman, of the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR, of 2001. The United States has undertaken reviews of this sort in the past, but the 2001 NPR is unique, and fully consistent with Article VI. The 2001 NPR established a New Triad of strategic capabilities, one that places far less reliance on nuclear weapons to meet U.S. defense policy goals…. Let me emphasize, Mr. Chairman, that the New Triad concept resulting from the NPR, in principle and in practice, will reduce reliance on nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy. It reflects a totally new vision of the future, and is fully consistent with our indisputable resolve to implement Article VI.”

但是，尽管某些常规武器被纳入了国家战争计划，但没有完成针对俄罗斯的计划在the same wayit was during the Cold War, the NPR (building on the 1997 PDD-60) and White House guidance also resulted in an increased nuclear targeting of China and, as the declassified STRATCOM document illustrates, an geographic expansion of national-level nuclear targeting to regional proliferators. Prudent or not, this is not a development that is highlighted by U.S. diplomats at NPT conferences.

文档的描述

解密的文件已大量编辑，包括在2003年3月1日生效的美国战略战争计划的周期性更新中的总计123张幻灯片中的26个。该计划是第一个携带新的战略战争计划名称操作计划（OPLAN）8044修订03，replacedthe Single Operational Strategic Plan (SIOP) name used since 1960. OPLAN 8044 Revision 03 replaced SIOP-03 from October 1, 2002.

该文件描述了新计划准备的六个部分：修订03生产状态，规划指导，目标基础，承诺部队，选择和结论。

该文件没有过时，但似乎是从2002年10月开始的，在国防部长被告知之前不久。针对智力和选择已经完成，弹头分配给了罢工计划，并计划（Sortie）计划洲际弹道导弹（ICBMS），海洋发射的弹道导弹（SLBMS）和远程轰炸机几乎完成了。经过2003年1月的最终修订报告03的共同审查和制作最终修订报告之后，最终的国防部秘书审查和联合参谋长主席的批准定于2003年1月下旬，然后OPLAN 8044修订版03于3月1日生效，2003。

Declassification of the document took four years. It was released in response to a FOIA request submitted in October 2003 for documents pursuant to remarks made by then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing in July 2002. When asked if there had been a review of the SIOP since the mid-1990s, Myers回答：“是的，绝对有。实际上，我和秘书花了很多时间修改了SIOP。我认为我们从去年开始，并进行了另一项重大评论。”解密文件于2007年10月10日发布。

资源：美国核武器指导|威慑矩阵|冷战后的SIOP和核战计划：词汇表，缩写和首字母缩写词

Acknowledgements: This research has been made possible by support from the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Ploughshares Fund.