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The ballistic missile remains a central) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 677 Tm (element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 663 Tm (status for at least the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources to develop) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 649 Tm (or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures to sustain development and production; and) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 635 Tm (actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 622 Tm (domestic shortfalls, gain expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 111 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 595 Tm (Could vs.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 135 594 Tm (Likely. As you know, the Senate requires that the Intelligence Community produce) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 580 Tm (annual reports on the missile threat; these reports are required to include a discussion of) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 566 Tm (nonmissile threats as well. Our most recent report was published as a National Intelligence) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 553 Tm (Estimate in December of last year.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 256 552 Tm (My testimony today is drawn from our unclassified summary) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 540 Tm (of that NIE.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 518 Tm (Our NIE describes missile developments and our projections of) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 428 518 Tm (possible) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 472 518 Tm (and) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 95 Tz 1 0 0 1 492 518 Tm (likely) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 505 Tm (ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 491 Tm (allies through 2015; updates our assessments of theater ballistic missile forces) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 477 Tm (worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 464 Tm (forward-based threats and cruise missiles.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 443 Tm (To address the uncertainties associated with this work, we assess both the earliest date) Tj 1 0 0 1 119 429 Tm (that countries could test various missiles, based largely on engineering judgments made) Tj 1 0 0 1 119 416 Tm (by experts inside and outside the Intelligence Community, on the technical capabilities) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 402 Tm (and resources of the countries in question, and, in many cases, on continuing foreign) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 389 Tm (assistance; and when countries would be) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 91 Tz 1 0 0 1 319 388 Tm (likely) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 348 388 Tm (to test such missiles, factoring into the) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 375 Tm (above assessments potential delays caused by technical, political, or economic hurdles. I) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 361 Tm (want to underscore that we judge that countries are much less likely to test as early as the) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 347 Tm (hypothetical "could" dates than they are by our projected "likely" dates.) Tj 107 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 320 Tm (The Threat-Now and in the Future. With that as a backdrop, I would note that most US) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 306 Tm (Intelligence Community agencies project that during the next 15 years the United States most) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 292 Tm (likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly Iraq-barring significant) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 279 Tm (changes in their political orientations; that, of course, is in addition to the strategic forces of) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 265 Tm (Russia and China. One agency assesses that the United States is unlikely to face an ICBM threat) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 251 Tm (from Iran before 2015. In any case, the threats to the US homeland will consist of dramatically) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 238 Tm (fewer warheads than today owing to significant force reductions in Russia.) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 210 Tm (I would underscore that short- and medium-range ballistic missiles already pose a significant) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 197 Tm (threat overseas to US interests, military forces, and allies.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 100 173 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 173 Tm (Emerging ballistic missile states continue to increase the range, reliability, and accuracy) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 159 Tm (of the missile systems in their inventories-posing ever greater risks to US forces,) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 145 Tm (interests, and allies throughout the world.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 100 122 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 121 Tm (A decade ago, the Scud was the emerging missile of concern; today it is the No Dong;) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 108 Tm (during the next few minutes, I will discuss the missiles of tomorrow.) 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The proliferation of ballistic missile-related technologies,) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 691 Tm (materials, and expertise-especially by Russian, Chinese, and North Korean entities-has) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 677 Tm (enabled emerging missile states to accelerate the missile development, gain previously non-) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 663 Tm (existent capabilities and lay the groundwork for the expansion of domestic infrastructures to) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 649 Tm (potentially accommodate even more capable and longer range future systems.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 630 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 628 Tm (North Korea has assumed the role as the missile and manufacturing technology source for) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 615 Tm (many programs. North Korean willingness to sell complete systems and components has) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 601 Tm (enabled other states to acquire longer range capabilities earlier than otherwise would have) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 587 Tm (been possible-such as with the sale of the No Dong MRBM to Pakistan. The North also) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 574 Tm (has helped countries to acquire technologies to serve as the basis for domestic) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 560 Tm (development efforts-as with Iran's reverse-engineering of the No Dong in the Shahab-3) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 547 Tm (program.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 170 546 Tm (Meanwhile, Iran is expanding its efforts to sell missile technology.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 1 0 0 1 102 526 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 525 Tm (States with emerging missile programs inevitably will run into problems that will delay) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 512 Tm (and frustrate their desired development timelines. The impact of these problems) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 498 Tm (increases with the lack of maturity of the program and depends on the level of foreign) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 486 Tm (assistance.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 177 485 Tm (Most emerging missile states are highly dependent on foreign assistance at) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 471 Tm (this stage of their development efforts, and disturbance of the technology and information) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 457 Tm (flow to their programs will have discernible short-term effects. The ready availability of) Tj 1 0 0 1 119 444 Tm (assistance from multiple sources, however, makes it likely that most emerging missile) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 430 Tm (states will be able to resolve such problems and advance their missile programs, albeit) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 417 Tm (with a slippage in development time.) Tj 107 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 389 Tm (Relative Likelihood of Missile and Nonmissile Strikes. All this leads us to assess that the) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 375 Tm (probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction will be used against US) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 490 374 Tm (forces or) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 362 Tm (interests) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 361 Tm (is higher today than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as the) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 348 Tm (capabilities of potential adversaries mature.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 299 347 Tm (More nations have ballistic missiles, and they have) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 334 Tm (already been used against US and allied forces during the Gulf war. Although the missiles used) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 320 Tm (in the Gulf war did not deliver weapons of mass destruction, Iraq had weaponized ballistic) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 307 Tm (missile warheads with biological and chemical agents and they were available for use.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 279 Tm (Moreover, some of the states armed with missiles have exhibited a willingness to use chemical) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 265 Tm (weapons with other delivery means. In addition, some nonstate entities are seeking chemical,) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 252 Tm (biological, radiological, and nuclear materials and would be willing to use them without missiles.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 238 Tm (In fact, we assess that US territory is more likely to be attacked with these materials from) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 224 Tm (nonmissile delivery means-most likely from terrorists-than by missiles, primarily because) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 211 Tm (nonmissile delivery means are less costly, easier to acquire, and more reliable and accurate.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 197 Tm (They also can be used without attribution. Nevertheless, the missile threat will continue to grow,) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 183 Tm (in part because missiles have become important regional weapons in the arsenals of numerous) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 170 Tm (countries.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 135 169 Tm (Moreover, missiles provide a level of prestige, coercive diplomacy, and deterrence) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 156 Tm (that nonmissile means do not.) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 128 Tm (In short, the Intelligence Community must work both threats.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 383 127 Tm (We do not have the luxury of) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 114 Tm (choosing to work) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 169 114 Tm (one) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 189 113 Tm (at the exclusion of the other. Neither is a no likelihood situation.) Tj 1 0 0 1 81 84 Tm (Russia. Let me turn now to some of the countries with missile forces or programs. First, Russia.) 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From approximately 10,000 warheads in 1990, Russia now maintains almost 4,000) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 636 Tm (warheads on its ICBMs and SLBMs.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 616 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 105 615 Tm (Russia currently has about 700 ICBMs with 3,000 warheads and a dozen ballistic missile) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 105 601 Tm (submarines equipped with 200 missiles that can carry 900 warheads.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 581 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 105 580 Tm (In the current day-to-day operational environment-with all procedural and technical) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 105 566 Tm (safeguards in place-an unauthorized or accidental launch of a Russian strategic missile is) Tj 1 0 0 1 104 554 Tm (highly unlikely.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 534 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 532 Tm (Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces is extending the service lives of its older ICBMs in part to) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 519 Tm (compensate for the slow deployment of its newest ICBM, the SS-27. Russia also faces) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 505 Tm (significant ballistic missile submarine program delays and the requirement to simultaneously) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 491 Tm (extend the service lives of older systems while maintaining newer, more capable systems.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 1 0 0 1 86 472 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 470 Tm (Unless Moscow significantly increases funding for its strategic forces, the Russian arsenal) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 457 Tm (will decline to less than 2,000 warheads by 2015-with or without arms control.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 438 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 103 436 Tm (Nevertheless, Russia has the most technologically evolved and best-equipped, maintained,) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 423 Tm (and trained theater ballistic missile force in the world today. The SS-21 and SS-26 SRBMs) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 103 409 Tm (provide Russian general-purpose ground forces with a rapid, precision-guided, theater deep-) Tj 1 0 0 1 103 397 Tm (strike capability.) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 367 Tm (China. Let's look next at China.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 250 365 Tm (We project that Chinese ballistic missile forces will increase) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 352 Tm (several-fold by 2015, but Beijing's future ICBM force deployed primarily against the United) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 338 Tm (States will remain considerably smaller and less capable than the strategic missile forces of) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 326 Tm (Russia and the United States.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 103 305 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 304 Tm (China's current ICBM force consists of large, liquid-propellant missiles armed with) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 290 Tm (single nuclear warheads. Of these ICBMs, about 20 are CSS-4 silo-based missiles that) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 276 Tm (can reach targets in the United States. The Chinese also have about a dozen CSS-3) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 263 Tm (ICBMs that are almost certainly intended as a retaliatory deterrent against targets in) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 249 Tm (Russia and Asia. China also has the medium-range JL-1 SLBM.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 228 Tm (Beijing is concerned about the survivability of its strategic deterrent against the United) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 215 Tm (States and has a long-running modernization program to develop mobile, solid-propellant) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 200 Tm (ICBMs. The IC projects that by 2015, most of China's strategic missile force will be) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 188 Tm (mobile.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 168 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 166 Tm (China has three new, mobile, solid-propellant strategic missiles in development-the) Tj 1 0 0 1 119 152 Tm (road-mobile CSS-X-10 ICBM \(also called the DF-31\), which is being flight tested; a) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 138 Tm (longer range version of the DF-31; and the JL-2 SLBM. This modernization effort,) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 126 Tm (which dates from the) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 224 125 Tm (mid-1980s,) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 282 124 Tm (forms the foundation of Beijing's efforts to field a) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 111 Tm (modern, mobile, and more survivable strategic missile force.) Tj 160 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 92 Tm (-) Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 137 90 Tm (China could begin deploying the DF-31 ICBM during the first half of this decade, and) Tj 1 0 0 1 137 77 Tm (the DF-31 follow-on ICBM and JL-2 SLBM in the last half of the decade.) Tj 0 g ET endstream endobj 38 0 obj 5495 endobj 39 0 obj << /Font << /OP11Font0 33 0 R /OP11Font1 34 0 R >> /ProcSet 3 0 R /XObject << /thumbnail_background_Page_2 31 0 R >> >> endobj 40 0 obj [ 35 0 R 37 0 R ] endobj 41 0 obj [ ] endobj 30 0 obj << /Annots 41 0 R /Contents 40 0 R /MediaBox [ 0 0 612 791 ] /Parent 1 0 R /Resources 39 0 R /Thumb 31 0 R /Type /Page >> endobj 43 0 obj << /BitsPerComponent 1 /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /DecodeParms << /Columns 77 /K -1 >> /Filter /CCITTFaxDecode /Height 99 /ImageMask false /Length 44 0 R /Name /thumbnail_background_Page_3 /Subtype /Image /Type /XObject /Width 77 >> stream .:#:#tGDt_1FtGE#̏qOG|aF2>]",!DGy莹F_#@0DK"""""#h莌#l9F AsSrr'GD|DT.""&i9U<闌":.菤#6uˣDxу#:#"]HCB"#as E菛DxiAI8PA^S9CT?`DxA B"=A&hE8DDDDDDy=фf.o#:") DDG!:={.菑.z""""#GG莈莈ф]G\DDDDDDDDDy1.DtG戺(FGENB"".h">]ь aDtGFу"""""""#37]цGDtaُ⠊q"&#tb#:戺..$"""#DDDB#G͢:6to.'ADS\DDG.#>_#>]"""#DtaDtGDtm\EYF1#u#>"]]\DDDDDDyB#3F2]쎈봐ЄD DDxafGFYE(\t endstream endobj 44 0 obj 847 endobj 45 0 obj << /BitsPerComponent 1 /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /DecodeParms << /Columns 392 /K -1 >> /Filter /CCITTFaxDecode /Height 3273 /ImageMask false /Length 46 0 R /Name /picture_0 /Subtype /Image /Type /XObject /Width 392 >> stream &/<9 ?H+3sPpHmL? bХ<D  ԧ(r/i#莁DE$PB"8DtY# Hx"?GFˎ~~#zH%o(u{_Po ("? z(r<qr(~@?K {e>?k9Cq}y>@<2C~> ^"~?!K1? .<?AIF8A\ww^?!??CHuiCd4xCCy !!?iǐii/!?<_iǭiǐ!?!?y !!? !!?4C^_z,\rCC4!?Cy !ǐ4 ! !CiCH!?4i?CH~?Ci!?[_z޷(޿__\K;\[[޷C.&i44޾!?[_}!?o !C_!?_CH~?Ci ! !4 !CHCH!? !Ci> endobj 48 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Italic /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font1 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 410 500 500 840 785 185 340 340 500 560 250 340 250 290 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 290 290 565 565 565 440 925 720 670 670 725 610 555 720 720 335 390 725 615 880 720 720 560 720 665 555 605 715 715 945 725 725 610 335 275 335 475 500 330 450 500 450 500 450 340 500 500 275 275 500 275 775 500 500 500 500 340 390 285 500 500 720 500 500 450 490 200 490 550 350 500 350 340 500 450 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 890 350 610 350 350 340 340 445 445 350 500 1000 340 990 390 340 730 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 210 500 340 770 280 500 570 340 770 340 410 570 300 300 340 510 460 250 340 300 310 500 750 750 750 445 720 720 720 720 720 720 885 675 615 615 615 615 340 340 340 340 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 565 720 720 720 720 720 720 560 500 450 450 450 450 450 450 670 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 ] >> endobj 49 0 obj << /Length 50 0 R >> stream q 0 0 0 rg 1 0 0 1 13 6 cm 94 0 0 786 0 0 cm /picture_0 Do Q endstream endobj 50 0 obj 67 endobj 51 0 obj << /Length 52 0 R >> stream BT 0 g /OP11Font0 12 Tf 0 0 0 rg 1 0 0 1 122 711 Tm (We have differing projections of the overall size of Chinese strategic ballistic missile forces) Tj 1 0 0 1 123 698 Tm (deployed primarily against the United States over the next 15 years, ranging from about 75 to) Tj 1 0 0 1 124 684 Tm (100 warheads. Deployment of multiple re-entry vehicles on missiles and missile defense) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 670 Tm (counter-measures would be factors in the ultimate size of the force. In addition, China would) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 656 Tm (have about two dozen shorter range DF-31 and CSS-3 ICBMs deployed primarily against Russia) Tj 1 0 0 1 122 643 Tm (and parts of Asia, but which could reach parts of the United States.) Tj 95 Tz 1 0 0 1 141 622 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 792 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 158 622 Tm (China has had the capability to develop and deploy a multiple reentry vehicle system for) Tj 1 0 0 1 158 608 Tm (many years, including a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle system or) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 158 594 Tm (MIRV. We assess that China could develop a multiple RV system for the CSS-4 ICBM) Tj 1 0 0 1 158 580 Tm (in a few years. Chinese pursuit of a multiple RV capability for its) Tj /OP11Font1 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 481 580 Tm (mobile) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 517 579 Tm (ICBMs and) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 158 566 Tm (SLBMs would encounter significant technical hurdles and would be costly.) Tj 1 0 0 1 122 539 Tm (On the theater front, China maintains a robust CSS-5 MRBM force and continues to increase) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 525 Tm (significantly the capabilities of its SRBM force deployed opposite Taiwan. China's leaders) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 511 Tm (calculate that conventionally-armed ballistic missiles add a potent new dimension to their) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 498 Tm (military capabilities, and they are committed to continue fielding them at a rapid pace. Beijing's) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 484 Tm (growing SRBM force provides a military capability that avoids the political and practical) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 470 Tm (constraints associated with the use of nuclear-armed missiles. The latest Chinese SRBMs) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 456 Tm (provide a survivable and effective conventional strike force and expand conventional ballistic) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 443 Tm (missile coverage.) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 211 443 Tm (We project an SRBM force in 2005 of several hundred missiles.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 413 Tm (North Korea. Now to North Korea, which has hundreds of Scuds and 1,300 km range No Dong) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 399 Tm (missiles, and continues to develop the longer range Taepo Dong-2. In May 2001, however, Kim) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 385 Tm (Chong-il unilaterally extended the North's voluntary flight-test moratorium-in effect since) Tj 113 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 372 Tm (1999-until) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 183 372 Tm (2003, provided negotiations with the United States proceeds. Despite the) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 358 Tm (moratorium, the North continues to develop missiles.) Tj 1 0 0 1 121 330 Tm (The multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 316 Tm (weapon-sized payload, may be ready for flight-testing. The North probably also is working on) Tj 90 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 303 Tm (i) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 124 303 Tm (mprovements to its current design.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 139 282 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 792 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 157 282 Tm (The Taepo Dong-2 in a two-stage configuration could deliver a several-hundred-kilogram) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 157 268 Tm (payload up to 10,000 km-sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii, and parts of the) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 157 255 Tm (continental United States.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 139 234 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 792 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 157 234 Tm (If the North uses a third stage similar to the one used on the Taepo Dong-1 in 1998, the) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 156 220 Tm (Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 15,000 km-sufficient) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 156 206 Tm (to strike all of North America.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 139 186 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 792 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 157 185 Tm (A Taepo Dong-2 flight test probably would be conducted as a space launch vehicle with a) Tj 1 0 0 1 156 171 Tm (third stage to place a small payload into the same orbit attempted in 1998.) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 144 Tm (The Intelligence Community judged in the) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 329 144 Tm (mid-1990s) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 384 143 Tm (that North Korea had produced one,) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 130 Tm (possibly two, nuclear weapons. Since then, the North has frozen plutonium production activities) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 116 Tm (at Yongbyon in accordance with the Agreed Framework of 1994. North Korea also has chemical) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 102 Tm (and biological weapons programs.) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 352 41 Tm (4) Tj 0 g ET endstream endobj 52 0 obj 5039 endobj 53 0 obj << /Font << /OP11Font0 47 0 R /OP11Font1 48 0 R >> /ProcSet 3 0 R /XObject << /picture_0 45 0 R /thumbnail_background_Page_3 43 0 R >> >> endobj 54 0 obj [ 49 0 R 51 0 R ] endobj 55 0 obj [ ] endobj 42 0 obj << /Annots 55 0 R /Contents 54 0 R /MediaBox [ 0 0 612 792 ] /Parent 1 0 R /Resources 53 0 R /Thumb 43 0 R /Type /Page >> endobj 57 0 obj << /BitsPerComponent 1 /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /DecodeParms << /Columns 77 /K -1 >> /Filter /CCITTFaxDecode /Height 99 /ImageMask false /Length 58 0 R /Name /thumbnail_background_Page_4 /Subtype /Image /Type /XObject /Width 77 >> stream &X2|#:#|:."#uqP2莈莈G5DG"""he莋ф]tGDtoDDDDDDDFP쎈"#mE̎#"2GEGG|He{#tb#фa:#EE0""3GtGEѴGFDt]Q##:0yDt]DtqDqDDDb'ˢ:#<]F4{#GEш|Ď8qֆG#zuD|"""""9 E]G|_#E$DGBs#tG"#:Ѵ]Ѵ]ф]E>Gq/:#/xхE@b"""1ltqDt_Ψ8tc=DxQO."6DDDDd4GGњ<4P"$t"#%Ѵ]sPPS9㘁Ԉj"D":8.GD|٘FфG@DDDDKhdb#L"莈$H:#DtGˢ:#:#> endobj 60 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font1 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 560 500 500 1000 825 285 340 340 500 575 250 340 250 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 340 340 565 565 565 500 925 715 670 715 715 670 615 780 780 385 500 770 670 945 715 775 615 775 725 555 665 725 725 1000 720 720 665 335 275 335 580 500 340 500 555 445 555 450 340 500 555 280 340 555 280 830 555 500 555 555 445 390 340 555 500 730 500 500 445 395 225 395 525 350 500 350 340 500 500 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 1000 350 665 350 350 340 340 500 500 350 500 1000 340 1000 390 340 720 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 225 500 340 750 300 500 570 340 750 340 400 570 300 300 340 610 540 250 340 300 340 500 750 750 750 500 730 730 730 730 730 730 1000 720 680 680 680 680 380 380 380 380 730 730 780 780 780 780 780 575 780 730 730 730 730 730 610 560 500 500 500 500 500 500 730 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 560 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 560 560 560 560 500 560 500 ] >> endobj 61 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Italic /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font2 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 410 500 500 840 785 185 340 340 500 560 250 340 250 290 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 290 290 565 565 565 440 925 720 670 670 725 610 555 720 720 335 390 725 615 880 720 720 560 720 665 555 605 715 715 945 725 725 610 335 275 335 475 500 330 450 500 450 500 450 340 500 500 275 275 500 275 775 500 500 500 500 340 390 285 500 500 720 500 500 450 490 200 490 550 350 500 350 340 500 450 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 890 350 610 350 350 340 340 445 445 350 500 1000 340 990 390 340 730 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 210 500 340 770 280 500 570 340 770 340 410 570 300 300 340 510 460 250 340 300 310 500 750 750 750 445 720 720 720 720 720 720 885 675 615 615 615 615 340 340 340 340 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 565 720 720 720 720 720 720 560 500 450 450 450 450 450 450 670 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 ] >> endobj 62 0 obj << /Length 63 0 R >> stream endstream endobj 63 0 obj 0 endobj 64 0 obj << /Length 65 0 R >> stream BT 0 g /OP11Font0 11 Tf 0 0 0 rg 121 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 705 Tm (Iran.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 704 Tm (Let me now turn to Iran, which is pursuing short- and long-range missile capabilities.) Tj 1 0 0 1 87 691 Tm (Iran's missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle East and includes a few hundred) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 677 Tm (SRBMs, some 1,300-km-range Shahab-3 MRBMs, and a variety of unguided rockets. Tehran's) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 663 Tm (longstanding commitment to its ballistic missile programs-for deterrence and war-fighting-is) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 87 650 Tm (unlikely to diminish.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 622 Tm (In addition to SRBM and MRBM development, Iran is likely to develop space launch vehicles to) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 608 Tm (put satellites into orbit and to establish the technical base from which it could develop) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 594 Tm (ICBMs/ICBMs capable of delivering weapons to Western Europe and the United States. Iran is) Tj 1 0 0 1 86 581 Tm (likely to test these vehicles initially as space launch vehicles to demonstrate an inherent) Tj 1 0 0 1 86 567 Tm (IRBM/ICBM) Tj 1 0 0 1 154 566 Tm (capability without risking the potential political and economic costs of a long-) Tj 1 0 0 1 86 553 Tm (range ballistic missile test. Iran certainly is aware of the North Korean space and missile) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 539 Tm (program and the benefits P'yongyang has tried to gain from the inherent ICBM capability posed) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 86 526 Tm (by the Taepo Dong-1 and -2.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 505 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 504 Tm (All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM about mid-decade, but) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 492 Tm (believe Iran) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 96 Tz 1 0 0 1 183 492 Tm (is likely) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 223 491 Tm (to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further) Tj 1 0 0 1 121 478 Tm (judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 98 Tz 1 0 0 1 315 477 Tm (successful) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 367 477 Tm (test of an ICBM before 2015.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 104 458 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 457 Tm (Iranian acquisition of complete systems or major subsystems-such as North Korean TD-) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 122 443 Tm (2 or Russian engines-could accelerate its capability to flight-test an ICBM.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 140 423 Tm (If Iran were to acquire complete TD-2 systems from North Korea, it could conduct a) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 140 409 Tm (flight test within a year of delivery, allowing time to construct a launch facility. Iran) Tj 1 0 0 1 140 395 Tm (is unlikely to acquire complete ICBM or space launch vehicle systems from Russia.) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 140 375 Tm (In contrast, a halt or substantial decrease in assistance would delay by years the) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 140 361 Tm (development and flight-testing of these systems.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 1 0 0 1 104 341 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 341 Tm (Foreign assistance-particularly from Russia, China, and North Korea-will remain) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 327 Tm (crucial to the success of the Iranian missile program for the duration of this Estimate.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 300 Tm (The Intelligence Community judges that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon. Most agencies) Tj 1 0 0 1 85 286 Tm (assess that Tehran could have one by the end of the decade, although one agency judges it will) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 273 Tm (take longer.) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 148 272 Tm (All agree that Iran could reduce this time frame by several years with foreign) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 259 Tm (assistance. Iran has biological and chemical weapons programs.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 126 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 230 Tm (Iraq.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 116 228 Tm (Next, Iraq, which is constrained by international sanctions and prohibitions, but probably) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 215 Tm (retains a small, covert force of Scud-variant missiles with conventional, chemical, and biological) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 201 Tm (warheads. Baghdad also wants a long-range missile. Iraq's goal of becoming the predominant) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 187 Tm (regional power and its hostile relations with many of its neighbors are the key drivers behind) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 173 Tm (Iraq's ballistic missile program. Iraq has been able to maintain the infrastructure and expertise) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 160 Tm (necessary to develop missiles, and we believe it has retained some Scud-specific production) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 146 Tm (equipment and support apparatus. For the next several years at least, Iraq's ballistic missile) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 132 Tm (initiatives probably will focus on reconstituting its pre-Gulf war capabilities to threaten regional) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 118 Tm (targets and probably will not advance beyond MRBM systems.) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 92 Tm (Prior to the Gulf war, Iraq had several programs to extend the range of the Scud SRBM and) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 78 Tm (became experienced working with liquid-propellant technology. 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Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 664 Tm (We cannot project with confidence how long UN-related sanctions and prohibitions will remain) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 650 Tm (in place. They plausibly will constrain Iraq during the 15-year period of our Estimate. Scenarios) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 636 Tm (that would weaken the prohibitions several years from now also are conceivable, allowing Iraq to) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 622 Tm (reconstitute its missile infrastructure and begin developing long-range missiles before the end of) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 609 Tm (the decade.) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 581 Tm (Should UN prohibitions be significantly weakened in the future, Iraq probably would use the) Tj 1 0 0 1 90 567 Tm (first several years to reestablish its SRBM inventory to pre-Gulf war numbers, continue) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 554 Tm (developing and deploying solid-propellant systems, and pursue MRBMs to keep pace with its) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 90 540 Tm (neighbors.) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 146 540 Tm (Once its regional security concerns are being addressed, Iraq may pursue a first-) Tj 1 0 0 1 90 526 Tm (generation ICBM space launch vehicle.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 108 506 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 505 Tm (Initially, Iraq is likely to use its experience with Scud technology to resume production of) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 491 Tm (the pre-Gulf war 650-km-range Al Hussein, the 900-km-range Al Abbas, or other Scud) Tj 1 0 0 1 126 478 Tm (variants, and it could explore clustering and staging options to reach more distant targets.) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 465 Tm (Iraq) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 148 465 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 178 464 Tm (resume Scud-variant production-with foreign assistance-quickly after UN) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 451 Tm (prohibitions ended.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 108 431 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 430 Tm (With substantial foreign assistance, Baghdad) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 346 430 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 376 429 Tm (flight-test a domestic MRBM by mid-) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 416 Tm (decade. This possibility presumes Baghdad's willingness to risk detection of) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 402 Tm (developmental steps, such as static engine testing, before the erosion of UN prohibitions.) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 389 Tm (An MRBM flight test) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 96 Tz 1 0 0 1 233 389 Tm (is likely) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 273 389 Tm (by 2010. An imported MRBM) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 427 388 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 98 Tz 1 0 0 1 456 388 Tm (be flight-tested) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 126 375 Tm (within months of acquisition.) Tj 1 0 0 1 89 347 Tm (After observing North Korean missile developments the past few years, Iraq would be likely to) Tj 1 0 0 1 89 334 Tm (pursue a three-stage TD-2 approach to an ICBM or space launch vehicle, which would be) Tj 1 0 0 1 89 320 Tm (capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States:) Tj 95 Tz 1 0 0 1 108 300 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 300 Tm (If Iraq could buy a TD-2 from North Korea, it) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 350 299 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 380 299 Tm (have a launch capability within a) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 287 Tm (year or two of the purchase.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 107 266 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 94 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 266 Tm (It) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 135 266 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 1 0 0 1 165 265 Tm (develop and test a TD-1-type system within a few years.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 107 245 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 245 Tm (If it acquired No Dongs from North Korea, it) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 346 244 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 1 0 0 1 375 244 Tm (test an ICBM within a few years of) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 231 Tm (acquisition by clustering and staging the No Dongs-similar to the clustering of Scuds) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 217 Tm (for its failed Al Abid space launch vehicle.) Tj 119 Tz 1 0 0 1 107 197 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 197 Tm (If Iraq bought TD-2 engines, it) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 1 0 0 1 277 197 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 307 196 Tm (test an ICBM within about five years of the) Tj 98 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 184 Tm (acquisition.) Tj 95 Tz 1 0 0 1 107 163 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 163 Tm (Iraq) Tj /OP11Font1 9 Tf 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 147 163 Tm (could) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 177 162 Tm (develop and test a Taepo Dong-2-type system within about ten years of a) Tj 98 Tz 1 0 0 1 125 149 Tm (decision to do so.) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 88 121 Tm (Most agencies believe that Iraq) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 242 121 Tm (is unlikely) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 294 120 Tm (to test before 2015 any ICBMs that would threaten the) Tj 1 0 0 1 88 107 Tm (United States, even if UN prohibitions were eliminated or significantly reduced in the next few) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 88 93 Tm (years. Some believe that if prohibitions were eliminated in the next few years, Iraq would be) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 95 Tz 1 0 0 1 88 80 Tm (likely) Tj /OP11Font0 12 Tf 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 117 79 Tm (to test an ICBM probably masked as an SLV before 2015, possibly before 2010 with) Tj 0 g ET endstream endobj 78 0 obj 5812 endobj 79 0 obj << /Font << /OP11Font0 72 0 R /OP11Font1 73 0 R /OP11Font2 74 0 R >> /ProcSet 3 0 R /XObject << /thumbnail_background_Page_5 70 0 R >> >> endobj 80 0 obj [ 75 0 R 77 0 R ] endobj 81 0 obj [ ] endobj 69 0 obj << /Annots 81 0 R /Contents 80 0 R /MediaBox [ 0 0 612 791 ] /Parent 1 0 R /Resources 79 0 R /Thumb 70 0 R /Type /Page >> endobj 83 0 obj << /BitsPerComponent 1 /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /DecodeParms << /Columns 77 /K -1 >> /Filter /CCITTFaxDecode /Height 99 /ImageMask false /Length 84 0 R /Name /thumbnail_background_Page_6 /Subtype /Image /Type /XObject /Width 77 >> stream &; 7(DtGF|7<]Ѽ#ȎDDDDb"}e/t,9FGˢ#G|aC."#IDD"y|DDDDDDF]D&eEԐa]A>]Fty> 0""""""3Z3莈莋:#菑ԡ쎈DDDPB""GQjDb3Q!v_#12;#"DuDԡ1莈 B]HDDDDDDDd4P^1E:8(AYCHF""2#Fф^#GEDDDDDDsW8:..dvGFDDb""#'DuGGVPC9XS9CD莋r#:.ˠAm%DDDDDDDYD>GDtGDt]>aaQBGF>a>yфmI DDA`DM2tc6>8qr"""""""2tG莍##y#~"",!]t]"h:7DDDDDDFN莌":G""""""#taˣtGFG">P""""""2taDt]xфGF2tGDtGEu:>tGG (HDDDb"$":1.>GEAf3hGDt]EѼ: endstream endobj 84 0 obj 795 endobj 85 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Bold /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font0 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 560 500 500 1000 825 285 340 340 500 575 250 340 250 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 340 340 565 565 565 500 925 715 670 715 715 670 615 780 780 385 500 770 670 945 715 775 615 775 725 555 665 725 725 1000 720 720 665 335 275 335 580 500 340 500 555 445 555 450 340 500 555 280 340 555 280 830 555 500 555 555 445 390 340 555 500 730 500 500 445 395 225 395 525 350 500 350 340 500 500 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 1000 350 665 350 350 340 340 500 500 350 500 1000 340 1000 390 340 720 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 225 500 340 750 300 500 570 340 750 340 400 570 300 300 340 610 540 250 340 300 340 500 750 750 750 500 730 730 730 730 730 730 1000 720 680 680 680 680 380 380 380 380 730 730 780 780 780 780 780 575 780 730 730 730 730 730 610 560 500 500 500 500 500 500 730 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 560 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 560 560 560 560 500 560 500 ] >> endobj 86 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Roman /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font1 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 410 500 500 840 785 185 340 340 500 560 250 340 250 290 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 290 290 565 565 565 440 925 720 670 670 725 610 555 720 720 335 390 725 615 880 720 720 560 720 665 555 605 715 715 945 725 725 610 335 275 335 475 500 330 450 500 450 500 450 340 500 500 275 275 500 275 775 500 500 500 500 340 390 285 500 500 720 500 500 450 490 200 490 550 350 500 350 340 500 450 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 890 350 610 350 350 340 340 445 445 350 500 1000 340 990 390 340 730 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 210 500 340 770 280 500 570 340 770 340 410 570 300 300 340 510 460 250 340 300 310 500 750 750 750 445 720 720 720 720 720 720 885 675 615 615 615 615 340 340 340 340 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 565 720 720 720 720 720 720 560 500 450 450 450 450 450 450 670 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 ] >> endobj 87 0 obj << /Length 88 0 R >> stream endstream endobj 88 0 obj 0 endobj 89 0 obj << /Length 90 0 R >> stream BT 0 g /OP11Font0 11 Tf 0 0 0 rg 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 704 Tm (significant foreign assistance. In fact, foreign assistance is key to Iraqi efforts to develop longer) Tj 1 0 0 1 85 692 Tm (range missiles quickly.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 203 691 Tm (Iraq relied) Tj /OP11Font1 12 Tf 91 Tz 1 0 0 1 256 691 Tm (on) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 271 690 Tm (extensive foreign assistance before the Gulf war and will) Tj 1 0 0 1 85 677 Tm (continue to seek foreign assistance to expand its current capabilities.) Tj 1 0 0 1 85 646 Tm (Baghdad had a crash program to develop a nuclear weapon for missile delivery in 1990, but) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 85 632 Tm (coalition bombing and IAEA and UNSCOM activities significantly set back the effort. The) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 618 Tm (Intelligence Community estimates that Iraq, unconstrained, would take several years to produce) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 605 Tm (enough fissile material to make a weapon. Baghdad has admitted to having biological and) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 591 Tm (chemical weapons programs before the Gulf war; we believe Iraq maintains those programs.) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 563 Tm (Libya. Now to Libya. The imposition of UN sanctions has impeded Libyan efforts to obtain) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 550 Tm (foreign assistance for its longer-range missile programs. Nevertheless, Libya wants longer-range) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 536 Tm (missiles, even beyond the No Dong-class MRBM. Tripoli would be likely to continue to try for) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 522 Tm (longer range systems to increase the number of US and NATO targets it can hold at risk. If a) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 509 Tm (missile were offered with range sufficient to strike 2,500 kilometers into Europe, Libya would) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 496 Tm (try to obtain it.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 467 Tm (Libya lacks the infrastructure required to develop by 2015 a ballistic missile system with) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 454 Tm (sufficient range to target US territory. Libya's paths to obtaining an ICBM during the 15-year) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 440 Tm (period of our Estimate probably would be to purchase a complete missile system or to set up a) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 426 Tm (foreign assistance arrangement where foreign scientists and technicians design, develop, and) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 413 Tm (produce a missile and the necessary infrastructure in Libya. Libya's missile program depends on) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 399 Tm (foreign support, without which the program eventually would grind to a halt.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 371 Tm (Libya has biological and chemical weapons programs. Libya would need significant foreign) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 357 Tm (assistance to acquire a nuclear weapon, but Tripoli's nuclear infrastructure enhancements remain of) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 344 Tm (concern.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 316 Tm (Syria. Let's look now at Syria, which maintains a ballistic missile and rocket force of hundreds) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 302 Tm (of Scud and SS-21 SRBMs, and FROG rockets. With considerable foreign assistance, Syria has) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 288 Tm (progressed to Scud production using primarily locally manufactured parts. Syrian regional) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 275 Tm (concerns may lead Damascus to seek a longer range ballistic missile capability such as North) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 261 Tm (Korea's No Dong MRBM. We judge that Syria does not now have and is unlikely to gain an) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 247 Tm (interest in an ICBM capability during the 15-year period of our Estimate. Foreign assistance will) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 233 Tm (remain critical to Syrian efforts to improve its production capabilities and to gain access to) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 220 Tm (export-controlled components and technology.) Tj 1 0 0 1 82 192 Tm (Syria has developed chemical warheads for its Scuds and has an offensive biological weapons) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 179 Tm (program.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 132 178 Tm (We remain concerned about Syria's intentions regarding nuclear weapons.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 150 Tm (India. Let me turn briefly to India and Pakistan. New Delhi believes that a nuclear-capable) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 137 Tm (missile delivery option is necessary to deter Pakistani first use of nuclear weapons and thereby) Tj 1 0 0 1 81 123 Tm (preserve the option to wage limited conventional war in response to Pakistani provocations in) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 109 Tm (Kashmir or elsewhere. Nuclear weapons also serve as a hedge against a confrontation with) Tj 98 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 96 Tm (China.) 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Tj 1 0 0 1 119 671 Tm (The 150-km-range Prithvi I SRBM continues to be India's only deployed ballistic) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 657 Tm (missile.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 636 Tm (The Prithvi II SRBM is a modified Prithvi I with an increased range of 250 km.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 615 Tm (The Agni series, which probably will be deployed during this decade, will be the) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 602 Tm (mainstay of India's nuclear-armed missile force.) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 581 Tm (The Sagarika SLBM probably will not be deployed until 2010 or later.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 554 Tm (India continues to push toward self-sufficiency, especially in regard to its missile programs.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 540 Tm (Nevertheless, New Delhi still relies heavily on foreign assistance.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 116 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 510 Tm (Pakistan.) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 137 510 Tm (Pakistan sees missile-delivered nuclear weapons as a vital deterrent to India's much) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 497 Tm (larger conventional forces, and as a necessary counter to India's nuclear program. Since the) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 483 Tm (1980s, Pakistan has pursued development of an indigenous ballistic missile capacity in an) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 469 Tm (attempt to avoid reliance on any foreign entity for this key capability. Islamabad will continue) Tj 1 0 0 1 83 455 Tm (with its present ballistic missile production goals until it has achieved) Tj /OP11Font2 12 Tf 90 Tz 1 0 0 1 421 455 Tm (a) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 430 455 Tm (survivable, flexible force) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 442 Tm (capable of striking a large number of targets throughout most of India. Pakistan's missiles) Tj 97 Tz 1 0 0 1 83 429 Tm (include:) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 101 408 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 407 Tm (The short-range Hatf I, which Pakistan also is attempting to market, as it is relatively) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 394 Tm (inexpensive and easy-to-operate.) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 373 Tm (M-11 missiles that Pakistan acquired from China in the 1990s. \(The M-11 SRBM-) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 360 Tm (called the Hatf III in Pakistan-is a single-stage, solid-propellant missile capable of) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 119 346 Tm (carrying a payload at least 300 km.\)) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 101 326 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 325 Tm (Ghauri/No Dong MRBMs that Pakistan acquired from North Korea.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 101 305 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 305 Tm (The Shaheen I, a Pakistani-produced single-stage, solid-propellant SRBM.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 1 0 0 1 101 285 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 284 Tm (The Shaheen II, a road-mobile two-stage solid-propellant) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 398 284 Tm (MRBM) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 438 284 Tm (that Pakistan is) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 271 Tm (developing. \(Based on several mockups publicly displayed in Pakistan, the Shaheen II) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 257 Tm (probably would be able to carry a 1,000-kg payload to a range of about 2,500 kilometers.\)) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 229 Tm (Foreign support for Pakistan's ambitious solid-propellant ballistic missile acquisition and) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 216 Tm (development program has been critical.) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 186 Tm (Forward-based Missiles. Several countries are technically capable of developing a missile) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 172 Tm (launch mechanism to use from forward-based ships or other platforms to launch SRBMs,) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 158 Tm (MRBMs, or land-attack cruise missiles against the United States. Some of these are likely to) Tj 107 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 144 Tm (develop and deploy such systems-more likely for cruise missiles-during the next 15 years.) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 81 130 Tm (Nevertheless, long-distance strikes against the United States probably would be operationally) Tj 99 Tz 1 0 0 1 82 117 Tm (difficult.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 100 96 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 118 96 Tm (An SRBM or MRBM could be launched at the United States from a forward-based sea) Tj 1 0 0 1 118 82 Tm (platform within a few hundred kilometers of US territory. Using such a sea platform) Tj 0 g ET endstream endobj 103 0 obj 4731 endobj 104 0 obj << /Font << /OP11Font0 97 0 R /OP11Font1 98 0 R /OP11Font2 99 0 R >> /ProcSet 3 0 R /XObject << /thumbnail_background_Page_7 95 0 R >> >> endobj 105 0 obj [ 100 0 R 102 0 R ] endobj 106 0 obj [ ] endobj 94 0 obj << /Annots 106 0 R /Contents 105 0 R /MediaBox [ 0 0 612 791 ] /Parent 1 0 R /Resources 104 0 R /Thumb 95 0 R /Type /Page >> endobj 108 0 obj << /BitsPerComponent 1 /ColorSpace /DeviceGray /DecodeParms << /Columns 77 /K -1 >> /Filter /CCITTFaxDecode /Height 99 /ImageMask false /Length 109 0 R /Name /thumbnail_background_Page_8 /Subtype /Image /Type /XObject /Width 77 >> stream # DpdJoф_#EфmFGˢ:"""""""G3 "DDDDF`CFP:#> endobj 111 0 obj << /BaseFont /Times-Roman /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FirstChar 0 /LastChar 255 /Name /OP11Font1 /Subtype /Type1 /Type /Font /Widths [ 0 280 340 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 340 410 500 500 840 785 185 340 340 500 560 250 340 250 290 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 290 290 565 565 565 440 925 720 670 670 725 610 555 720 720 335 390 725 615 880 720 720 560 720 665 555 605 715 715 945 725 725 610 335 275 335 475 500 330 450 500 450 500 450 340 500 500 275 275 500 275 775 500 500 500 500 340 390 285 500 500 720 500 500 450 490 200 490 550 350 500 350 340 500 450 1000 500 500 340 1000 565 340 890 350 610 350 350 340 340 445 445 350 500 1000 340 990 390 340 730 350 450 730 250 340 500 500 500 500 210 500 340 770 280 500 570 340 770 340 410 570 300 300 340 510 460 250 340 300 310 500 750 750 750 445 720 720 720 720 720 720 885 675 615 615 615 615 340 340 340 340 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 565 720 720 720 720 720 720 560 500 450 450 450 450 450 450 670 450 450 450 450 450 280 280 280 280 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 565 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 ] >> endobj 112 0 obj << /Length 113 0 R >> stream endstream endobj 113 0 obj 0 endobj 114 0 obj << /Length 115 0 R >> stream BT 0 g /OP11Font0 11 Tf 0 0 0 rg 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 704 Tm (would not pose major technical problems, but the accuracy of the missile probably would) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 690 Tm (be reduced significantly because of the movement of the ocean. Still, the accuracy) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 676 Tm (probably would be better than for some of the ICBMs discussed in our Estimate. The) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 121 663 Tm (simplest method for launching a shipborne ballistic missile would be to secure a TEL) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 649 Tm (onboard the ship and launch the missile from the TEL. Somewhat greater accuracy could) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 635 Tm (be obtained by placing the TEL on a stabilization platform to compensate for wave) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 621 Tm (movement. Another option would be to add satellite-aided \(GPS or GLONASS\)) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 608 Tm (navigation to the missile.) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 587 Tm (One to two dozen countries probably will possess a land-attack cruise missile capability) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 573 Tm (by 2015 via indigenous development, acquisition, or modification of such other systems) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 559 Tm (as antiship cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles.) Tj 104 Tz 1 0 0 1 393 559 Tm (Most of these cruise missiles will) Tj 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 546 Tm (have a range of a few hundred kilometers-posing primarily a theater-level threat-but) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 532 Tm (with sufficient range to be forward-deployed on air- or sea-launch platforms.) Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 504 Tm (Nonmissile Delivery. Nonmissile means of delivering weapons of mass destruction) Tj 80 Tz 1 0 0 1 495 504 Tm (\() Tj 106 Tz 1 0 0 1 498 504 Tm (WMD\)) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 536 504 Tm (do) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 491 Tm (not provide the same prestige or degree of deterrence and coercive diplomacy associated with) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 477 Tm (ICBMs. Nevertheless, concern remains about options for delivering WMD to the United States) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 463 Tm (without missiles by state and nonstate actors. Ships, trucks, airplanes, and other means may be) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 450 Tm (used. In fact, as noted earlier, the Intelligence Community judges that US territory is more likely) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 436 Tm (to be attacked with WMD using nonmissile means, primarily because such means:) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 415 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 415 Tm (Are less expensive than developing and producing ICBMs.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 395 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 395 Tm (Can be covertly developed and employed; the source of the weapon could be masked in) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 381 Tm (an attempt to evade retaliation.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 360 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 361 Tm (Probably would be more reliable than ICBMs that have not completed rigorous testing) Tj 100 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 347 Tm (and validation programs.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 326 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 327 Tm (Probably would be much more accurate than emerging ICBMs over the next 15 years.) Tj 1 0 0 1 120 306 Tm (Probably would be more effective for disseminating biological warfare agent than a) Tj 103 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 292 Tm (ballistic) Tj 1 0 0 1 162 292 Tm (missile.) Tj /OP11Font1 11 Tf 129 Tz 1 0 0 1 102 271 Tm () Tj 2000 Tz 1 0 0 1 0 791 Tm (\t) Tj /OP11Font0 11 Tf 105 Tz 1 0 0 1 120 272 Tm (Would avoid missile defenses.) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 244 Tm (Foreign nonstate actors-including terrorist, insurgent, or extremist groups-have used,) Tj 102 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 231 Tm (possessed, or expressed an interest in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials.) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 217 Tm (Most of these groups have threatened the United States, and all of them have the ability to attack) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 203 Tm (the United States or its interests. The events of September 11 and its aftermath have caused the) Tj 1 0 0 1 84 189 Tm (Intelligence Community to focus significantly more resources on the threat from terrorism, and) Tj 101 Tz 1 0 0 1 84 175 Tm (we are obtaining more information on potential terrorist actions.) 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