指数

9/11后世界的危险汇聚
中央情报局局长的证词
乔治J. Tenet.
之前
参议院情报特别委员会

(准备交付)

2002年2月6日

主席先生，我今年出现在今年的情况下，因为我不需要叙述的原因是非凡和历史的情况。�从未在这次年度威胁简报的主题中有更多即时共鸣。�从未有过的危险更明确或者更多存在。

9月11日把我们早就知道的几个对美国及其利益的重大威胁——确切地说——团结起来并带回了美国。�It is the convergence of these threats that I want to emphasize with you today:� the connection between terrorists and other enemies of this country; the weapons of mass destruction they seek to use against us; and the social, economic, and political tensions across the world that they exploit in mobilizing their followers.� September 11 demonstrated the dangers that arise when these threats converge—and it reminds us that we overlook at our own peril the impact of crises in remote parts of the world.

这种威胁的融合已经创造了今天我将介绍的世界 - 这是一个世界，其中危险不仅存在于我们最常重点关注我们注意的地方，而且在其他领域需要它：

这些威胁要求我们作出最大的反应。�The United States has clearly demonstrated since September 11 that it is up to the challenge.� But make no mistake:� despite the battles we have won in Afghanistan, we remain a nation at war.

恐怖主义

去年我告诉过你们，乌萨马·本·拉登和基地组织网络是这个国家面临的最直接和最严重的威胁。�尽管我们在阿富汗取得了进展，也破坏了其他地方的网络，但今天依然如此。�We assess that Al-Qa’ida and other terrorist groups will continue to plan to attack this country and its interests abroad.�他们的工作方式是同时有多个攻击计划，并有一个-qa'ida细胞在适当的地方进行它们。

Although the September 11 attacks suggest that al-Qa’ida and other terrorists will continue to use conventional weapons, one of our highest concerns is their stated readiness to attempt unconventional attacks against us.� As early as 1998, Bin Ladin publicly declared that acquiring unconventional weapons was “a religious duty.”

我们也对恐怖分子发动网络战的可能性保持警惕。�September 11 demonstrated our dependence on critical infrastructure systems that rely on electronic and computer networks.� Attacks of this nature will become an increasingly viable option for terrorists as they and other foreign adversaries become more familiar with these targets, and the technologies required to attack them.

The terrorist threat goes well beyond al-Qa’ida.� The situation in the Middle East continues to fuel terrorism and anti-US sentiment worldwide.� Groups like the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and HAMAS have escalated their violence against Israel, and the intifada has rejuvenated once-dormant groups like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.� If these groups feel that US actions are threatening their existence, they may begin targeting Americans directly—as Hizballah’s terrorist wing already does。

The war on terrorism has dealt severe blows to al-Qa’ida and its leadership.� The group has been denied its safehaven and strategic command center in Afghanistan.� Drawing on both our own assets and increased cooperation from allies around the world, we are uncovering terrorists’ plans and breaking up their cells.� These efforts have yielded the arrest of nearly 1,000 al-Qa’ida operatives in over 60 countries, and have disrupted terrorist operations and potential terrorist attacks.

董事长先生，本·拉丁并不相信我们会侵入他的避难所。�他看到美国柔软，不耐烦，毫无疑问，害怕长期血腥的消磨。�他没有依靠我们的事实had lined up allies that could help us overcome barriers of terrain and culture.� He did not know about the collection and operational initiatives that would allow us to strike—with great accuracy—at the heart of the Taliban and al-Qa’ida.� He underestimated our capabilities, our readiness, and our resolve.

尽管如此，我必须重申，基地组织尚未被摧毁。�It and other like-minded groups remain willing and able to strike us.� Al-Qa’ida leaders still at large are working to reconstitute the organization and to resume its terrorist operations.� We must eradicate these organizations by denying them their sources of financing and eliminating their ability to hijack charitable organizations for their terrorist purposes.� We must be prepared for a long war, and we must not falter.

主席先生，我们还必须超越恐怖主义袭击的眼前危险，关注使恐怖主义在世界各地扎根的条件。这些条件对美国国家安全的威胁不亚于恐怖主义本身。�The problems that terrorists exploit—poverty, alienation, and ethnic tensions—will grow more acute over the next decade.� This will especially be the case in those parts of the world that have served as the most fertile recruiting grounds for Islamic extremist groups.

穆斯林世界

所有这些挑战都集中在穆斯林世界的一些地方，让我给你们举一个例子。�One of the places where they converge that has the greatest long-term impact on any society is its educational system.� Primary and secondary education in parts of the Muslim world is often dominated by an interpretation of Islam that teaches intolerance and hatred.� The graduates of these schools—“madrasas”—provide the foot soldiers for many of the Islamic militant groups that operate throughout the Muslim world.

让我强调总统肯定的是什么：伊斯兰教本身既不是敌人，也不是对美国的威胁。但是对西部的愤怒越来越愤怒 - 以及对我们 - 伊斯兰极端分子的友好友好以及他们的同情家显然是一种威胁对我们。�我们已经看到 - 并继续看到这些动态在穆斯林世界范围内发挥作用。�让我简要地解决了几个关键国家的表现。

�我们的活动阿富汗取得了巨大的进步，但前方的道路充满了挑战。�阿富汗人民与国际援助一起努力克服传统的中央政府，一个毁灭性的基础设施，一个严重的人道主义危机和加深的族裔司20年的冲突。接下来的几个月将是一个特别脆弱的时期。

让我们继续巴基斯坦。�911事件以及美国对此的反应是自1979年苏联入侵阿富汗以来对巴基斯坦影响最为深远的外部事件，美国对此的反应也是如此。�The Musharraf government’s alignment with the US—and its abandonment of nearly a decade of support for the Taliban—represent a fundamental political shift with inherent political risks because of the militant Islamic and anti-American sentiments that exist within Pakistan.

President Musharraf’s intention to establish a moderate, tolerant Islamic state—as outlined in his 12 January speech—is being welcomed by most Pakistanis, but he will still have to confront major vested interests.� The speech is energizing debate across the Muslim world about which vision of Islam is the right one for the future of the Islamic community.�

虽然9月11日突出了这一挑战印巴12月13日对印度议会的袭击甚至更不稳定——导致了对巴基斯坦采取军事行动的新呼吁，以及随后双方的动员。这两个拥有核武器的国家之间爆发战争的可能性比1971年以来的任何时候都要高。�If India were to conduct large scale offensive operations into Pakistani Kashmir, Pakistan might retaliate with strikes of its own in the belief that its nuclear deterrent would limit the scope of an Indian counterattack.

现在我来谈谈伊拉克萨达姆对我们在阿富汗取得的进展采取了政治和外交魅力攻势，使巴格达看起来在联合国制裁和检查问题上变得更加灵活。金博宝正规网址上个月，他派副总理塔里克·阿齐兹(Tariq Aziz)前往莫斯科和北京，表明伊拉克对履行其在联合国的义务持新的开放态度，并寻求他们的支持。

Baghdad’s international isolation is also decreasing as support for the sanctions regime erodes among other states in the region.� Saddam has carefully cultivated neighboring states, drawing them into economically dependent relationships in hopes of further undermining their support for the sanctions.� The profits he gains from these relationships provide him the means to reward key supporters and, more importantly, to fund his pursuit of WMD.� His calculus is从来没有关于更好或帮助伊拉克人。

让我明确一点:萨达姆仍然是一个威胁。�He is determined to thwart UN sanctions, press ahead with weapons of mass destruction, and resurrect the military force he had before the Gulf war.� Today, he maintains his vise grip on the levers of power through a pervasive intelligence and security apparatus, and even his reduced military force—which is less than half its pre-war size—remains capable of defeating more poorly armed internal opposition groups and threatening Iraq’s neighbors.

As I said earlier, we continue to watch Iraq’s involvement in terrorist activities.� Baghdad has a long history of supporting terrorism, altering its targets to reflect changing priorities and goals.� It has also had contacts with al-Qa’ida.� Their ties may be limited by divergent ideologies, but the two sides’ mutual antipathy toward the United States and the Saudi royal family suggests that tactical cooperation between them is possible—even though Saddam is well aware that such activity would carry serious consequences.

在伊朗，我们担心改革运动可能会失去其势头。近五年来，哈塔米总统和他的改革派支持者被最高领导人Khamenei和谢尔德林斯推迟了。

这个强硬的政权目前看来是安全的，因为安全部队已经很容易地控制住了持不同政见者并逮捕了潜在的反对派领导人。�No one has emerged to rally reformers into a forceful movement for change, and the Iranian public appears to prefer gradual reform to another revolution.� But the equilibrium is fragile and could be upset by a miscalculation by either the reformers or the hardline clerics.

为所有这一切，改革并没有死亡。�我们必须记住，自1997年以来，伊朗人民在四个全国选举中展示，他们希望改变，并增长革命的承诺。 - 社会，知识分子和政治发展。正在进行，民间机构正在增长，新的报纸随着其他人开放。

德黑兰合作和共同事业的最初迹象与美国在阿富汗的常见事业上被伊朗努力破坏了美国影响力的黯淡.虽然伊朗的官员对阿富汗稳定的政府表达了共同的兴趣，但其安全部队似乎逐渐反驳美国存在弯曲。这一表现在行为中的矛盾反映了德黑兰的职员中坐下的怀疑，即美国致力于环绕和推翻他们 - 这是一种恐惧，这可能很快爆发了对我们利益的袭击。

目前的冲突以色列和巴勒斯坦has been raging for almost a year and a half, and it continues to deteriorate.� The violence has hardened the public’s positions on both sides and increased the longstanding animosity between Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian leader Arafat.� Although many Israelis and Palestinians say they believe that ultimately the conflict can only be resolved through negotiations, the absence of any meaningful security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority—and the escalating and uncontrolled activities of the Palestine Islamic Jihad and HAMAS—make any progress extremely difficult.

增殖

我现在转到……的话题扩散。�首先，我想提请大家注意这一重要领域的几个令人不安的趋势。�WMD programs are becoming more advanced and effective as they mature, and as countries of concern become more aggressive in pursuing them.� This is exacerbated by the diffusion of technology over time—which enables proliferators to draw on the experience of others and to develop more advanced weapons more quickly than they could otherwise.� Proliferators are also becoming more self-sufficient.� And they are taking advantage of the dual-use nature of WMD- and missile-related technologies to establish advanced production capabilities and to conduct WMD- and missile-related research under the guise of legitimate commercial or scientific activity.

让我依次地址依次撰写主要类别的WMD增殖，从而开始化学和生物武器由于各种原因，生化武器的威胁持续增长，并给我们带来了监控方面的挑战。�许多化学武器和生物武器的两用性质使我们对进攻计划的评估复杂化。�Many CW and BW production capabilities are hidden in plants that are virtually indistinguishable from genuine commercial facilities.� And the technology behind CW and BW agents is spreading.� We assess there is a significant risk within the next few years that we could confront an adversary—either terrorists or a rogue state—who possesses them.

在核方面，我们担心重大核技术转移的可能性未被发现。�这加强了我们需要更加密切地研究新出现的核计划，以突然跨越能力。 - 对美国的因素包括监测和控制技术转移的难度，新供应商涵盖核武器计划的出现，以及非法获取裂变材料的可能性。�所有这些都可以缩短时间表并增加增殖惊喜的机会。

在导弹另一方面，洲际弹道导弹和巡航导弹的设计和技术的扩散，已经把对美国的威胁从大规模杀伤性武器运载系统提升到了一个关键的临界点。�As outlined in our recent National Intelligence Estimate on the subject, most Intelligence Community agencies project that by 2015 the US most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq.� This is in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China.� Short- and medium-range ballistic missiles pose a significant threat now.

俄罗斯实体继续为其他国家提供适用于CW，BW，核和弹道和巡航导弹项目的技术和专业知识。俄罗斯似乎是寻求最先进的技术和培训的增殖状态的首选增强状态。�这些销售是一个主要来源俄罗斯商业和国防产业与军事研发的资金。

中国人firms remain key suppliers of missile-related technologies to Pakistan, Iran, and several other countries.� This is in spite of Beijing’s November 2000 missile pledge not to assist in any way countries seeking to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.� Most of China’s efforts involve solid-propellant ballistic missile development for countries that are largely dependent on Chinese expertise and materials, but it has also sold cruise missiles to countries of concern such as Iran.

北朝鲜继续出口完整的弹道导弹和生产能力以及相关的原材料、部件和专业知识。�Profits from these sales help P’yongyang to support its missile—and probably other WMD—development programs, and in turn generate new products to offer to its customers—primarily Iran, Libya, Syria, and Egypt.� North Korea continues to comply with the terms of the Agreed Framework that are directly related to the freeze on its reactor program, but P’yongyang has warned that it is prepared to walk away from the agreement if it concluded that the United States was not living up to its end of the deal.

伊拉克继续建立和扩大能够生产大规模杀伤性武器的基础设施。�Baghdad is expanding its civilian chemical industry in ways that could be diverted quickly to CW production.� We believe it also maintains an active and capable BW program; Iraq told UNSCOM it had worked with several BW agents.

伊朗由于其对武器和导弹能力的董事会追求仍然是一个严重的问题。德黑兰可能能够在这十年晚期通过核武器生产足够的裂变材料。�从外面获取材料可以从这个估计中削减几年。�伊朗也可能在这十年后飞行测试，使用俄语或朝鲜援助。�已经部署了几种类型的无人机 - 包括一些在攻击角色 - 伊朗可以寻求开发或以其他方式获得更复杂的宽容。�它还继续追求两种使用设备和专业知识，可以帮助扩大其BW Arsenal，并维持一个大型CW储存。

两个都印度和巴基斯坦正在致力于为更先进的核武器，生产裂变材料，增加核库存的教义和策略。�我们继续担心双方可能无法与核试验进行核对。�我们也不能排除任何国家的可能性可以部署他们最先进的核武器而无需额外测试。�两国也继续开发远程核心的弹道导弹，并计划采用土地攻击能力进行邮轮巡航导弹。

正如我多年来一直在提到的那样，我们面临着试图通过扩散国家和非国家行动者检测WMD获取的几个独特挑战.-他们使用拒绝和欺骗策略，以及他们在开放来源中获得巨额信息WMD生产，使我们的努力变得复杂。�他们的剥削太空剥削了.-这是美国过去几十年中享有的独特的星载优势，随着中国和印度的更多国家和印度 - 领域越来越复杂的侦察卫星。是三种商业卫星收集高分辨率图像，大部分地销售。�外国军事，智力和恐怖组织正在利用这一传播的导航和通信服务 - 加强其运营的规划和行为。

让我在这里提到另一个与核扩散密切相关的危险:战争本身不断变化的性质。�As demonstrated by September 11, we increasingly are facing real or potential adversaries whose main goal is to cause the United States pain and suffering, rather than to achieve traditional military objectives.� Their inability to match US military power is driving some to invest in “asymmetric” niche capabilities.� We must remain alert to indications that our adversaries are pursuing such capabilities against us.

俄罗斯

主席先生，让我现在转向美国的其他地区，在那里美国有重点兴趣俄罗斯。�在过去的一年里，俄罗斯最引人注目的发展是莫斯科与美国的接触有所增加。�Even before September 11, President Putin had moved to engage the US as part of a broader effort to integrate Russia more fully into the West, modernize its economy, and regain international status and influence.� This strategic shift away from a zero-sum view of relations with the United States is consistent with Putin’s stated desire to address the many socioeconomic problems that cloud Russia’s future.

在第二年在办公室，普京强烈推动他的政策议程。�他推动杜马对预算改革的关键经济立法，合法化了城市房地产销售，扁平化和简化税率，减少了小企业的繁文缛节。他对其经济团队的支持及其财政严谨定位俄罗斯向州工人偿还工资和养老金，苏联近390亿美元的储备率，并达到今年截止的主要外债（约合140亿美元）下一个（约160亿美元）。

这一进展是有希望的，普京正在努力建立一个强大的总统总统，可以确保这些改革在俄罗斯实施 - 而是通过为私人利益的非正式网络管理分散的官僚主义困扰。然而，在他寻求建立强大的状态时，他正试图建立在哪些政治力量必须运作的参数。“这一”管理民主“是通过对独立国家电视公司的持续举动的”管理民主“。

普京已经在车臣没有进展。虽然在9月份举行了与车臣疗程的可能对话，但最近几个月的战斗已经加剧，而成千上万的车臣游侠和他们的阿拉伯穆杰布德战士仍然存在。莫斯科似乎不愿意考虑到解解决方案所需的妥协，而车臣之间的部门则使其难以找到代表性的中间人。�与此同时，战争威胁要泄漏到邻近的格鲁吉亚。

9·11事件后，普京断然选择加入我们打击恐怖主义的斗争。�The Kremlin blames Islamic radicalism for the conflict in Chechnya and believes it to be a serious threat to Russia.� Moscow sees the US-led counterterrorism effort—particularly the demise of the Taliban regime—as an important gain in countering the radical Islamic threat to Russia and Central Asia.

So far, Putin’s outreach to the United States has incurred little political damage, largely because of his strong domestic standing.� Recent Russian media polls show his public approval ratings at around 80 percent.� The depth of support within key elites, however, is unclear—particularly within the military and security services.� Public comments by some senior military officers indicate that elements of the military doubt that the international situation has changed sufficiently to overcome deeply rooted suspicions of US intentions.

Mosc.oW保留与华盛顿对关键问题的基本差异，怀疑我们的动机仍然存在于俄罗斯保守派中 - 特别是在军事和安全服务中.普京已金博宝正规网址呼吁我们从ABM条约中撤离“错误”，但却落后于其影响在俄罗斯。�同时，m奥斯科可能会追求各种对策和新武器系统，以击败部署的美国导弹防御。

中国

我转向下一个中国。�去年我告诉你们，中国成为一个大国的努力正变得更加引人注目。�The challenge, I said, was that Beijing saw the United States as the primary obstacle to its realization of that goal.� This was in spite of the fact that Chinese leaders at the same time judged that they needed to maintain good ties with Washington.� A lot has happened in US-China relations over the past year, from the tenseness of the EP-3 episode in April to the positive image of President Bush and Jiang Zemin standing together in Shanghai last fall, highlighting our shared fight against terrorism.

September 11 changed the context of China’s approach to us, but it did not change the fundamentals.� China is developing an increasingly competitive economy and building a modern military force with the ultimate objective of asserting itself as a great power in East Asia.� And although Beijing joined the coalition against terrorism, it remains deeply skeptical of US intentions in Central and South Asia.� It fears that we are gaining regional influence at China’s expense, and it views our encouragement of a Japanese military role in counterterrorism as support for Japanese rearmament—something the Chinese firmly oppose.

一如既往，北京对美国的态度必须放在中国国内政治的背景下看待。�I told you last year that the approach of a major leadership transition and China’s accession to WTO would soon be coloring all of Beijing’s actions.� Both of those benchmarks are now upon us.� The 16th共产党大会将于今年秋季举行，中国现在面临WTO成员资格的义务。

在领导方面，北京可能会在今年连续竞争，作为顶级领导人决定谁将得到什么位置 - 谁将在党大会和政府职位转换，这将在明年春天遵循。这种关注可能会在大多数政策问题上转化为一种谨慎和防守的方法。�它也可能转化为一个坚持的民族主义外交政策，因为继承赛中的每个竞争者都有义务避免任何暗示“软”。金博宝正规网址在美国。

中国加入世贸组织，突显了继任竞争者对保持国内稳定的担忧。�WTO membership is a major challenge to Chinese stability because the economic requirements of accession will upset already disaffected sectors of the population and increase unemployment.� If China’s leaders stumble in WTO implementation—and even if they succeed—they will face rising socioeconomic tensions at a time when the stakes in the succession contest are pushing them toward a cautious response to problems.� In the case of social unrest, that response is more likely to be harsh than accommodative toward the population at large.

The Taiwan issue remains central.� Cross-strait relations remain at a stalemate, but there are competing trend lines behind that.� Chinese leaders seemed somewhat complacent last year that the growing economic integration across the Taiwan Strait was boosting Beijing’s long-term leverage.� The results of Taiwan’s legislative elections in December, however, strengthened President Chen’s hand domestically.� Although Beijing’s latest policy statement—inviting members of Chen’s party to visit the mainland—was designed as a conciliatory gesture, Beijing might resume a more confrontational stance if it suspects him of using his electoral mandate to move toward independence.

台湾仍然是中国军事现代化计划的重点。�Over the past year, Beijing’s military training exercises have taken on an increasingly real-world focus, emphasizing rigorous practice in operational capabilities and improving the military’s actual ability to use force.� This is aimed not only at Taiwan but also at increasing the risk to the United States itself in any future Taiwan contingency.� China also continues to upgrade and expand the conventional short-range ballistic missile force it has arrayed against Taiwan.

北京也继续在部署第一代公路机动战略导弹DF-31方面取得进展。�一个能够达到美国目标的远程版本将在10年后投入使用。

朝鲜

暂时停留在东亚，让我向大家介绍最新情况北朝鲜去年平壤、首尔和华盛顿之间的接触中断，强化了我去年提到的金正日对我们和我们在东北亚的盟友的意图的担忧。�Kim’s reluctance to pursue constructive dialogue with the South or to undertake meaningful reforms suggests that he remains focused on maintaining internal control—at the expense of addressing the fundamental economic failures that keep the North mired in poverty and pose a long-term threat to the country’s stability.� North Korea’s large standing army continues to be a priority claimant on scarce resources, and we have seen no evidence that P’yongyang has abandoned its goal of eventual reunification of the Peninsula under the North’s control.

长期经济管理不善的累积影响仍然易于对国家失败的可能性越来越容易受到国家失败的可能性。“朝鲜面临着深化的经济剥夺和饥荒的回归，因为它收到了基本的经济改革和大规模国际人道主义援助 -an annual average of 1 million metric tons of food aid over the last five years.� It has ignored international efforts to address the systemic agricultural problems that exacerbate the North’s chronic food shortages.� Grain production appears to have roughly stabilized, but it still falls far short of the level required to meet minimum nutritional needs for the population.� Large numbers of North Koreans face long-term health damage as a result of prolonged malnutrition and collapse of the public health network.�

拉美

发展中国家的其他重要地区是我之前指出的许多政治、社会和人口趋势的检验案例——这些趋势对美国利益构成潜在或日益增长的挑战，有时还助长了恐怖主义。我已经提到过了东南亚在这方面，他列举了印度尼西亚伊斯兰极端主义的兴起和菲律宾的恐怖主义联系。

拉美由于不稳定的可能性越来越挥发了。“这一地区多年来一直被五个经济危机鞭打，9月11日的经济影响将在全球衰退降低出口需求时，将9月11日的经济影响恶化了一个已经黯淡的区域经济展望。

在这方面，我特别关切委内瑞拉，我们的第三大石油供应商。�与查韦斯总统的“玻利瓦尔革命”的国内不快乐正在增长，经济状况恶化随着油价下跌，危机氛围可能会恶化。在阿根廷，Duhalde总统正试图维持公共秩序，同时放置从经济崩溃中恢复的基础，但他的支持基地很薄。

哥伦比亚Too仍然高度不稳定。�The peace process there faces many obstacles, and a significant increase in violence—especially from the FARC—may be in the offing.� Colombia’s tenuous security situation is taking a toll on the economy and increasing the dangers for US military advisers in the country.� Together, the difficult security and economic conditions have hampered Bogota’s ability to implement Plan Colombia’s counterdrug and social programs.� Colombia remains the cornerstone of the world’s cocaine trade, and the largest source of heroin for the US market.�

非洲

慢性问题撒哈拉以南非洲这也成为直接或间接威胁美国利益的肥沃土壤。�Governments without accountability and natural disasters have left Africa with the highest concentration of human misery in the world.� It is the only region where average incomes have declined since 1970, and Africans have the world’s lowest life expectancy at birth.� These problems have been compounded by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which will kill more than 2 million Africans this year, making it the leading source of mortality in the region.

鉴于这些严峻事实，撒哈拉以南非洲国家失败的风险将仍然很高.在过去十年中，索马里，利比里亚，卢旺达，刚果 - 金沙萨和其他地方的政府崩溃已经领导了美国和其他国际合作伙伴提供数亿美元的援助，并部署成千上万的维和人员。�一些其他非洲国家 - 包括津巴布韦和利比里亚- 在津巴布韦总统在津巴布韦总统于下个月预定总统选举的津巴布韦举行的经济大会提高了可能泄露进入南非和其他邻居的法律和命令的机会。- 男人的休战埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚也依然脆弱。

巴尔干

最后，让我简要提及巴尔干，在那里继续美国军事存在强调这一重要性。“北约至关重要的核心的国际维和部军队是维持该地区稳定的关键。

在马其顿, the Framework Agreement brokered by the United States and the EU has eased tensions by increasing the ethnic Albanians’ political role, but it remains fragile and most of the agreement has yet to be implemented.� Ethnic Slavs are worried about losing their dominance in the country.� If they obstruct implementation of the accord, many Albanians could decide that the Slav-dominated government—and by extension the international community—cannot be trusted.

美国和其他国际部队最有风险波斯尼亚在上世纪90年代的种族冲突中，来自该地区以外的伊斯兰极端分子发挥了重要作用。波斯尼亚的穆斯林社区对国际伊斯兰事业有相当大的同情。�20世纪90年代早期，一些参加过波斯尼亚战争的圣战者留在了那里。�These factors combine with others present throughout the Balkans—weak border controls, large amounts of weapons, and pervasive corruption and organized crime—to sustain an ongoing threat to US forces there.�

结论

主席先生，在结束我的发言时，我想重申总统在许多场合就我们面临的来自恐怖分子和其他对手的威胁所说的话。我们不能也不会放松对这些敌人的防范。如果我们这样做，恐怖分子就会赢。而这是不会发生的。�The terrorists, rather, should stand warned that we will not falter in our efforts, and in our commitment, until the threat they pose to us has been eliminated.

谢谢主席先生。�I welcome any questions you and your colleagues have for me.

[摘自口供]

主席先生，我跳过了一些内容，我就讲到这里，因为我想我们要尽快进入提问环节。主席先生，我能不能用一分钟来回应你的两次开场白关于整个恐怖主义问题以及我们如何继续进行，因为我认为这很重要。你可以向美国人民讲话，我也可以，我认为让他们听到我们在这个问题上的讲话是很重要的。

我们欢迎委员会审查我们在恐怖主义问题上的记录。我们有个记录很重要。它是纪律、战略、专注和行动的记录。我们为这一记录感到自豪。我们与基地组织的战争已经持续了五年多。我们在阿富汗的集体成功反映了我们对这个问题的重视，也反映了我们对扩大我们的人力资源、技术行动、融合情报以及与军方的无缝合作的明确承诺。这些都是我们过去5年来一直在努力的。

在千年威胁期间，我们告诉美国总统，将会有5到15次针对美国利益的袭击，无论是在国内还是海外。这些攻击都没有发生，主要是因为美国联邦调查局和中央情报局在美国国内外英勇努力的结果，以确保这些攻击没有成功。

一年后，科尔被轰炸了。我们在那里丢了一场战斗。我们需要解决的问题的一部分问题，这不仅可以评估我们可以单方面做的事情，或与我们的军事和执法同事一起做些什么，但那些经常偏转我们的国家或没有认识到有一个恐怖主义问题，他们没有帮助我们解决我们无法立即解决的问题。在过去的春天和夏天，我们看到了2001年的春天和夏天，我们看到了关于对美国巨大伤亡的壮观威胁报告。这些威胁报告对美国内部发生的事情具有很少的质地。我们再次推出了巨大的破坏性努力。我们知道我们停止了三四或四个美国设施在海外轰炸。我们知道我们拯救了许多美国人的生命。我们从未有过纹理说，美国在美国9月11日将导致美国的日期，时间和地点。 It was not the result of the failure of attention and discipline and focus and consistent effort, and the American people need to understand that.

汤姆·里奇今天所做的是保护我们的国土，考虑我们的边境巡逻政策，我们的签证政策，我们所有组织之间的关系，机场安全，所有这些都必须落实，情报永远不会给你百分之百的预测恐怖事件的能力。我们的社区在过去的五年里一直在努力工作，美国人民需要明白，联邦调查局和中央情报局的男男女女在资源、权力和优先事项下表现英勇。无论我们有什么缺点，我们都应该诚实地、有计划地审视自己。但当人们使用“失败”这个词时，“失败”意味着没有关注，没有关注，没有纪律，这些都没有出现在我们或联邦调查局在这里和世界各地所做的事情中。我们将继续为此努力。但是当这些信息或秘密无法获得时，你需要确保你的屁股受到保护。你们需要确保有一个安全机制，给你们成功的前景，这是我们所有人需要共同努力的。

总统决定进入避难所并向塔利班和基地组织开战可能是发生的最重要的事情，因为所有的准备工作导致了避难所的破坏，即使我们在追逐世界上的每个人。自9 / 11以来，我们已经挫败了许多恐怖主义行动，我们将继续与联邦调查局合作。我们欢迎委员会的审查。这对美国人民很重要。但是我们如何描绘它同样重要，因为他们需要知道有有能力的男人和女人冒着生命危险，冒着英雄般的风险来保护他们。谢谢主席先生。谢谢副主席先生。

来源:http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affaire/speeches/dci_speech_02062002.html.

http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/senate_select_hearing_02072002.html