核武器GydF4y2Ba

Status of World Nuclear Forces

03.31.23GydF4y2Ba |GydF4y2Ba 4分钟阅读GydF4y2Ba |GydF4y2Ba 文字GydF4y2BaHans Kristensen和GydF4y2BaMatt Korda和GydF4y2Ba埃里亚娜·雷诺兹（Eliana Reynolds）GydF4y2Ba和GydF4y2Ba凯特·科恩（Kate Kohn）GydF4y2Ba

谁拥有世界的核武器？GydF4y2Ba

尽管自冷战以来减少核武器武器库的进展，但世界上核弹头的综合清单仍然很高：截至2023年初，有9个国家的弹头大约有12,500枚弹头。GydF4y2Ba

联合起来，美国和俄罗斯现在拥有全球核武器总库存的约89％，而军方可用于使用的库存弹头的86％。目前，尚无其他核武器国家认为需要超过几百个国家安全核武器，尽管其中许多州正在增加其核库存。GydF4y2Ba

在全球范围内，核武器的总体清单正在下降，但与过去30年相比，减少的速度正在放缓。此外，这些减少仅是因为美国和俄罗斯仍在拆除以前退休的弹头。GydF4y2Ba

In contrast to the overall inventory of nuclear weapons, the number of warheads in global military stockpiles – which comprises warheads assigned to operational forces – is increasing once again.美国仍在缓慢降低其核库存。法国和以色列具有相对稳定的库存。但是中国，印度，朝鲜，巴基斯坦和英国以及可能的俄罗斯都在增加其库存（请参阅地图）：GydF4y2Ba

在世界上大约12500枚核弹头中，大约9,576枚在军事储存中，用于导弹，飞机，船只和潜艇。其余的弹头已经退休，但仍然相对完整，正在等待拆除）。在军事库存中的9,576枚弹头中，约有3,804架由作战部队（在导弹或轰炸机基地上）部署。其中约有2,000名美国，俄罗斯，英国和法国的弹头GydF4y2Ba高警报GydF4y2Ba，准备短时间使用（请参阅表）：GydF4y2Ba

估计的全球核弹头清单, 2023

Hans M. Kristensen，Matt Korda和Eliana Reynolds，美国科学家联合会，2023年GydF4y2Ba

The exact number of nuclear weapons in each country’s possession is a closely held national secret, so the estimates presented here come with significant uncertainty. Most nuclear-armed states provide essentially no information about the sizes of their nuclear stockpiles. Yet the degree of secrecy varies considerably from country to country. Between 2010 and 2018, the United States disclosed its total stockpile size, but in 2019 the Trump administration停止了这种做法GydF4y2Ba。2020年，拜登管理GydF4y2Ba恢复核透明度GydF4y2Ba– a brief victory for nuclear accountability in a democratic country – but then declined to declassify any US stockpile data for 2021 or 2022. Similarly, in 2021 the United Kingdom宣布GydF4y2Ba它将不再披露其运营库存，部署的弹头或部署的导弹号码的公众数据。此外，截至2023年，美国和俄罗斯都选择不再交换有关新开始条约规定其部署的战略弹头和发射器的公开数据。GydF4y2Ba

Despite these limitations, however, publicly available information, careful analysis of historical records, and occasional leaks make it possible to make best estimates about the size and composition of the national nuclear weapon stockpiles. For a breakdown of the nuclear warhead categories of the different nuclear-armed states, and for links to more details overviews of each country’s arsenals, see this table:

Status of World Nuclear Forces 2023

Country	部署战略GydF4y2Ba	部署非政策GydF4y2Ba	预备/非部署GydF4y2Ba	军事储备（a）GydF4y2Ba	总库存（b）GydF4y2Ba
Russia	1,674(c)	0（d）GydF4y2Ba	2,815（e）GydF4y2Ba	4,489GydF4y2Ba	5,889GydF4y2Ba
United States	1,670（g）GydF4y2Ba	100HGydF4y2Ba	1,938（i）GydF4y2Ba	3,708（J）GydF4y2Ba	5,244（k）GydF4y2Ba
法国GydF4y2Ba	280（l）GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	10（l）GydF4y2Ba	290GydF4y2Ba	290GydF4y2Ba
China	0(m)	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	410GydF4y2Ba	410GydF4y2Ba	410(m)
英国GydF4y2Ba	120（n）GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	105GydF4y2Ba	225GydF4y2Ba	225（n）GydF4y2Ba
以色列GydF4y2Ba	0GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	90	90	90（o）GydF4y2Ba
巴基斯坦GydF4y2Ba	0GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	170GydF4y2Ba	170GydF4y2Ba	170（p）GydF4y2Ba
India	0GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	164GydF4y2Ba	164GydF4y2Ba	164（q）GydF4y2Ba
North Korea	0GydF4y2Ba	N.A.GydF4y2Ba	30GydF4y2Ba	30GydF4y2Ba	30（r）GydF4y2Ba
总计：sGydF4y2Ba	〜3,744GydF4y2Ba	〜100GydF4y2Ba	~5,732	〜9,576GydF4y2Ba	~12,512

Status of World Nuclear Forces 2023

如何阅读此表：GydF4y2Ba“部署的战略核弹头”是那些部署on我ntercontinental missiles and at heavy bomber bases. “Deployed nonstrategic warheads” are those deployed on bases with operational short-range delivery systems. “Reserve/Nondeployed” warheads are those not deployed on launchers but in storage (weapons at bomber bases are considered deployed). The “military stockpile” includes active and inactive warheads that are in the custody of the military and earmarked for use by commissioned deliver vehicles. The “total inventory” includes warheads in the military stockpile as well as retired, but still intact, warheads in the queue for dismantlement. For additional guidance, see endnotes below (注意：随着估计值的更新，它们可能与下面的印刷材料有所不同GydF4y2Ba).

扩张GydF4y2Ba脚注GydF4y2Ba

^AGydF4y2Ba“军事储备”中的弹头被定义为军事拘留的弹头，并指定军队使用。GydF4y2Ba
^bGydF4y2Ba“总库存”计算了军事库存中的弹头，并且退休但仍然完好无损，弹头等待拆除。GydF4y2Ba
^CGydF4y2Ba这个数字高于GydF4y2BaNew START TreatybeCAuse this table also counts bomber weapons at bomber bases as deployed.截至2022年的俄罗斯部队的详细概述在这里GydF4y2Ba。数字已更新以供以后更改。GydF4y2Ba
^dGydF4y2Ba尽管某些存储地点可能与运营力量接近基地，但所有这些都被宣布为中央存储。人们认为许多退休的非战略弹头正在等待拆除。GydF4y2Ba
^eGydF4y2Ba包括估计的999枚战略弹头和所有1,816枚非战略弹头。GydF4y2Ba
^FGydF4y2Ba除了军事储备中的4,489枚弹头外，估计有1,400枚退休的弹头正在等待拆除。公众细节很少，但我们估计俄罗斯每年将拆除200-300枚退休的弹头。俄罗斯库存规模的未来是辩论的：美国战略司令部和情报界的一部分GydF4y2Ba宣称GydF4y2Ba“俄罗斯的整体核库存可能会在未来十年中显着增长 - 增长主要是由于预计俄罗斯非战略核武器的预计增加。”其他人私下不同意。一个主要的不确定性是，将有多少个战术武器被新的核版本与常规武器取代。GydF4y2Ba请参阅2022年俄罗斯部队的概述GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^GGydF4y2Ba该数字高于下发布的汇总数据GydF4y2Ba新的开始数据GydF4y2Ba因为该表还计算了部署的轰炸机基地上的轰炸机武器。GydF4y2Ba2023年美军的详细概述在这里GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^HGydF4y2Ba五个国家（比利时，德国，意大利，荷兰和土耳其）在欧洲六个基地部署了大约100枚B61炸弹。GydF4y2Ba
^我GydF4y2Ba非部署的储备包括中央存储中的1,670个战略和100枚非战略弹头。GydF4y2Ba
^jGydF4y2Ba美国政府GydF4y2Ba宣布GydF4y2Ba2018年3月，其储备包括2017年9月的3,822弹头。此后，GydF4y2Ba特朗普政府决定GydF4y2BanolonGerto declassify the numbers. In 2021, the Biden administration解密GydF4y2Bathe number of warheads in the stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads, noting that the stockpile consisted of 3,750 warheads as of September 2020. Since then, additional warheads have been retired for an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads.
^kGydF4y2BaIn addition to the roughly 3,700 warheads in the military stockpile and the approximate 1,500 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, roughly 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 4,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) from dismantled warheads are in storage at the Pantex Plant in Texas and Y-12 plant in Tennessee. For a detailed 2023 overview of U.S. forces,see这里GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^lGydF4y2Ba法国单人航空母舰的武器在正常情况下没有在船上部署，但可能会在短时间内被部署。一些潜艇导弹上的弹头装载已减少，以提高目标灵活性。有关法国核力量的详细概述，GydF4y2Basee这里GydF4y2Ba).
^mGydF4y2BaThe Chinese stockpile is increasing, and in 2022 the US Department of Defense宣称edGydF4y2Ba到2030年，中国的核库存“将有大约1000枚核弹头”。该增长的一部分已经在进行中，我们的估计包括其中的一些；但是，这些主张取决于许多不确定的因素，包括将建造多少导弹筒仓，每个导弹将携带多少弹头以及中国未来生产裂变材料的假设。没有一个弹头被认为是完全部署的，但在中央控制下存放。中国认为其所有核武器是战略性的，但美国军方称其中等和中等导弹非战略。我们详细的2023年中国核力量概述是GydF4y2Ba这里GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^nGydF4y2BaThe number of British warheads on each submarine was lowered from 48 to 40. This lowered the number of “operationally available” warheads from 160 to 120. The plan was to reduce the stockpile to “not more than 180” by the mid-2020s, but the Johnson government于2021年宣布GydF4y2Ba这将使库存增加到“不超过260枚弹头”。GydF4y2Ba这里详细概述了英国核力量GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^oGydF4y2Ba尽管以色列为100-200枚弹头生产了足够的p，但美国情报界的交付平台和估计数量表明，库存可能包括大约90枚弹头。GydF4y2Ba详细的2021概述GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^pGydF4y2BaEstimating the number of Pakistani warheads comes with great uncertainty because neither Pakistan nor western governments provide public information. None of Pakistan’s warheads are thought to be mated with missiles but kept in central storage, most in the southern parts of the country. More warheads are in production.详细的2021概述GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^问GydF4y2BaEstimating the number of Indian warheads comes with great uncertainty because neither Indian nor western governments provide public information. Despite efforts to increase readiness, we estimate Indian nuclear warheads are not mated with missiles but in central storage. Bomber weapons could probably be employed on relatively short notice. More warheads are in production.详细的2022概述此处GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^rGydF4y2Ba经过六次核试验，其中包括10-20千座中的两个和150多公斤以上的核试验，我们估计朝鲜可能已经为大约50-70枚弹头产生了足够的裂变材料。组装弹头的数量尚不清楚，但较低。我们估计，朝鲜可能有大约30枚组装弹头用于短距离和中等导弹，尽管这一数字肯定在增加。GydF4y2Ba详细的2022概述此处GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba
^sGydF4y2Ba由于四个较小的核武器状态的运营状况以及关于五个初始核能中三个库存的大小的不确定性，数字可能不会增加。GydF4y2Ba

在历史背景下,核武器的数量ns我nthe world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 12,500 in early-2023. Government officials often characterize that accomplishment as a result of current or recent arms control agreements, but in reality the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. Some also compare today’s numbers with those of the 1950s, but that is like comparing apples and oranges; today’s forces are vastly more capable.

The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons; the trend is that the military stockpiles (useable nuclear weapons) are increasing again.

估计的全球核弹头清单GydF4y2Ba

Hans M. Kristensen，Matt Korda和Eliana Reynolds，美国科学家联合会，2023年GydF4y2Ba

核武国家没有计划核武器，而是计划保留大型武器库，以实现无限期的未来。因此，他们与条约对不扩散核武器的客观和精神相抵触。GydF4y2Ba

所有人都继续以很大的速度将其剩余的核力量现代化，其中一些正在增加新型和/或增加他们在国家战略和公众声明中的作用，并且似乎都致力于在不确定的未来中保留核武器。GydF4y2Ba

有关全球现代化计划的概述，请参阅我们对GydF4y2BaSIPRI Yearbook和GydF4y2Ba核武器禁令GydF4y2Ba。个人资料可从GydF4y2BaFAS核笔记本GydF4y2Ba。GydF4y2Ba

每个国家可用的信息差异很大，从最透明的核武器国家（美国）到最不透明的（以色列）。因此，尽管美国的库存估算是基于“实际”数字，但其他几个核武器国家的估计值高度不确定。GydF4y2Ba

这些核武器估计是由美国科学家联合会的汉斯·克里斯汀森，马特·科尔达和埃里亚娜·雷诺兹制作的。他们的工作是基于分析师托马斯·科克伦（Thomas Cochran），罗伯特·诺里斯（Robert Norris）和威利安·阿金（Willian Arkin）的开创性成就，没有这些公共服务。GydF4y2Ba

This work was made possible through grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Future of Life Institute, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Longview Philanthropy, the New-Land Foundation, the Prospect Hill Foundation, the Stewart R. Mott Foundation, Ploughshares Fund, and individual donors. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors.