快讯：移动美国核武器落入土耳其

由汉斯·M·克里斯坦森

如果美国空军撤回它存储了大约50 B61核弹的因吉尔利克空军基地在土耳其？The question has come to a head after Turkey’s invasion of Syria, Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian leadership and deepening discord with NATO, Trump’s inability to manage U.S. security interests in Europe and the Middle East, and war-torn Syria only a few hundred miles from the largest U.S. nuclear weapons storage site in Europe.

根据The New York Times，国家和能源部（？）的官员上周末悄悄地审查了从因吉尔利克撤离武器计划。“这些武器，一个高级官员说，现在都基本上是埃尔多安的人质。飞出来因吉尔利克的是，以纪念土耳其和美国联盟的事实上的结束。为了保留他们那里，虽然是延续应该已被年前消除核漏洞“。

这次审查是姗姗来迟！[事实上，我听说有过几次审查，自2016年政变企图活泼的内部辩论。一些我们一直呼吁撤军多年（见这里和这里），但官员抵制说这是不是那么糟糕，因为它看起来和部署仍担任一个目的。他们错了。并等待这么久才采取行动，美国将自己画成一个角落，核安全和放弃土耳其之间的选择变得不必要的鲜明和迫切。

The situation is even more untenable because Incirlik in just a few years is scheduled to receive a large shipment of the newB61-12制导核弹，which would be a recommitment to nuclear deployment in Turkey.

This year is the 60th anniversary of thefirst deployment of nuclear weapons to Turkey.现在是时候带他们回家。

核武器在因吉尔利克

The specific reference in the纽约时报文章官员因吉尔利克制成核武器是最新的，权威的确认，核武器仍然存储在该基地。这证实了我一直在美国的空军欧洲听力和消息来源证实的报告，告诉威廉·阿金日e weapons are still there.There have been rumors日e weapons were removed after the coup attempt in 2016 (and some really bad disinformation that they had been moved to Romania). All of those rumors were wrong. An文章在官方的因吉尔利克空军基地网站甚至证实，第39作战支援中队的任务是“协调和控制美国，土耳其，和联盟中的全频谱空中力量的执行在因吉尔利克空军基地作战部队和核威慑行动”（强调）。鉴于文章可能会被现在，我已经指出了这一点取出后，全文转载如下：

I have estimated for the past several years that the Air Force stores about 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs at Incirlik, one-third of the 150 nuclear weapons currently deployed in Europe (see figure below). This estimate has been used by a wide range of news reports and commentators. The number of bombs at Incirlik hasdecreased over the past two decades from 90 in 2000。在那些日子里，90枚炸弹的40人专项用于土耳其F-16战斗机交付。使用这40枚炸弹在两个Akinci AB和AB巴勒克埃西尔（20每个）存放在金库6直到他们被转移到因吉尔利克时，美国空军于1996年，40“土耳其”撤回了弹药支持中队从土耳其基地bombs remained at Incirlik until around 2005 when they were shipped back to the United States as part of the Bush administration’s unilateral nuclear reduction in Europe.

其余50枚炸弹是由美国飞机使用，即使土耳其决不允许美国空军在因吉尔利克基地永久战斗机中队。喷气机将有一个危机中飞拿起武器或他们将不得不运到使用前的其他位置。其结果是，在因吉尔利克核态势已经过去二十年中，更多的是存储站点比歼击轰炸机基地。

尽管土耳其参与北约nuclear sharing mission was lessened (some would say mothballed) by the withdrawal of the “Turkish” weapons, the Turkish F-16s continued to serve a nuclear role. Despite local reports that F-16s never had a nuclear role, the US Air Force in 2010informed Congress日at “Turkey uses Turkish F-16s to execute their nuclear mission,” and that some of the F-16s would be upgraded to be able to deliver the new B61-12 bomb until the F-35A could take over the nuclear strike mission in the 2020s. That is now not going to happen after the Trump administration canceled the F-35 sale.

In 2015, satellite images发现建筑of a new security perimeter around most of the aircraft shelters with nuclear weapons storage vaults. Of the 25 shelters that originally were equipped with vaults, only 21 were included in the new security area with a capacity to store up to a maximum of 84 nuclear bombs. Normally only about two bombs are stored in each vault, for a total of inventory of 40-50 bombs at Incirlik.

就在上个月，空军副参谋长，将军斯蒂芬·W·威尔逊，参观因吉尔利克并且在基站被赋予了各种功能和设施，旅游服务。其中之一是保护飞机住房H-2的“北约区”里，他采访了39成员的内^日安全部队保护核武器（见下文）。他可能也显示了住房库中的内部和武器。

Recent Activities

如果空军决定从因吉尔利克退出B61炸弹，它看起来很像由Maxar的卫星在2019年和2017年这些图像拍摄活动表明似乎是实际两种核武器运动或训练将其删除。

从2019年3月22日，表演一架C-17运输机一张照片 - 可能从4^日在62空运中队^NDAirlift Wing at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington – parked right outside the main gate to the NATO Area. The 4^日空运中队，这是空军唯一单位，是合格的空运核武器，苍蝇总理核空运部队（PNAF）和核紧急空运行动（ENAO）任务（见下图）。

卫星图像示出了C-17和栅极区域包围由装甲车和39的武装警卫^日安全部队以及技术保护和进行武器的运动。看到一个独特的车辆是18米长的卡车一字排开与C-17的加样垫上。同一类型的卡车可以看到停在武器维护单位建立后几个月（见下图）。

另一组可能的核武器运动的Maxar卫星照片或运动是从12月一2017年核安全检查那年（至2014年）据说included weapons emergency evacuation drills. The scenario on the 2017 image is similar to that on the 2019 image: a C-17 parked outside the gate, security vehicles surrounding the scene, and transporters for moving weapons. But the 2017 photos are unique because they were taken moments apart as the satellite passed overhead. As a result, movements become visible: On the first image, a possible weapons trailer towed behind a truck in a column of armored security vehicles is moving toward the outer gate of the NATO Area. On the second photo, the column has passed through the gate onto the tarmac and the towed trailer is turning toward the rear of the C-17. The aircraft shadow shows the loading ramp is open and ready to receive the weapons (see image below).

The Task At Hand: Withdraw The Weapons!

在因吉尔利克的B61核弹应该已经早就撤出，但传统的冷战思维和官僚惰性做正确的事防止官员。现在事情已经开始在美国面临着巩固其武器或被视为放弃土耳其选择一个头。

回抽武器不，当然，指的是美国放弃土耳其。这种关系已经陷入严重的困境，并保持在因吉尔利克武器基于这样的理念，它会以某种方式对重土耳其的进一步漂移北约远离可能是一种错觉。这船似乎已经航行;的关系可能恶化是否有核武器的因吉尔利克。这是空军必须与现在的实际情况。

反对撤离另一种说法将是移动出来土耳其将导致所谓的核共享安排的其他成员（比利时，德国，荷兰，意大利）到问题，为什么他们应该继续储存美国核武器。撤出土耳其可能，因此这种观点认为，从其他国家引发撤出的多米诺骨牌效应，以及。

但美国核弹撤出希腊在2001年和来自英格兰五年后并没有引起其他国家的需求撤出，以及或北约的崩溃。如果他们真的相信美国的核武器部署是北约安全的重要，那么他们就会留下来。如果任务落在来自土耳其撤出，那么他们显然不认为这是重要的武器应该来自各国反正被撤回。美国扩大在欧洲的威慑态势，也可以充分地与战略被迫在后台备份先进的常规部队维持。

The B61 bombs at Incirlik could easily be dispersed to empty storage vaults in the other countries. Space is not a problem. There are a total of 96 empty weapon slots in the active WS3 vaults in Belgium, Germany, Holland, and Italy. Moreover, there are 25 empty and inactive WS3 vaults with room for 100 bombs at RAF Lakenheath. But public and parliamentary opposition would likely prevent increasing the number of nuclear bombs stored in those countries. If the order goes out to evacuate Incirlik, it seems more likely the bombs would be returned to the United States.

There will be some people who will argue that deteriorating relations with Russia and Moscow’s alleged increased reliance on a so-called “escalate-to-deescalate” strategy of using tactical nuclear weapons first prevent the United States from reducing – certainly withdrawing – its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe. Those are curiously the same people who also argue that the United States should deploy a new low-yield warhead on its strategic submarines and a new nuclear cruise missile on its attack submarines to better counter Russian tactical nuclear weapons – a thinking that was recently endorsed by the Trump administration’s核态势评估报告。这似乎信号向欧洲盟友，美国实际上已经不再相信的B61核弹部署在欧洲是可信的，还需要其他的和更好的武器。

不管人们可能会想到美国战术核武器在欧洲，土耳其不再是一个可以接受的位置。埃尔多安的对抗性和独裁的领导迅速破坏土耳其作为北约的可靠盟友的地位，并在该地区日益恶化的安全局势呈现给武器在因吉尔利克一个真实的物理威胁。这种威胁是真实的，美国军方认为这是真的。正因如此，在意大利中队部署到从因吉尔利克阿维亚诺空军基地一个额外的安全部队to beef up nuclear security in response to “regional turmoil and government instability”根据美国空军源和Ohio Army National Guard宪兵据说被派往因吉尔利克专门增加基地的安全。

安全威胁的武器驻防urgent and the continued deployment of nuclear weapons at the location is unjustifiable and incompatible with U.S. nuclear security standards. If you don’t believe that, ask yourself this question: If there were no U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey and someone asked for them to be deployed to Incirlik, would the Pentagon approve?

我对此表示怀疑。现在是时候面对现实，从土耳其撤出武器，他们有下火被疏散了。

Additional information:

• 美国的核武器，2019
• 战术核武器2019
• 升级在美军基地在欧洲，确认安全风险(2015)

该出版物是由来自纽约卡内基公司中，约翰和凯瑟琳·麦克阿瑟基金会，慷慨捐助成为可能新的土地基金会，犁头基金会，并展望希尔基金会。所作的发言和表达的意见是完全是作者的责任。