俄罗斯太平洋舰队为新导弹潜艇的到来做准备

Later this fall (possibly this month) the first new Borei-class (sometimes spelled Borey) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) is scheduled to arrive at the Rybachiy submarine base near Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

[Update September 30, 2015:发言人Igor Dygalo队长一流the Russian Navy, announced that the Aleksander Nevsky (K-550) arrived at Rybachiy Submarine Base at 5 PM local time (5 AM GMT) on September 30, 2015.]

预计接下来的几年，至少有几个（可能还有几个可能的Borei SSBN）替换了当前在太平洋运营的剩余过时的Delta-IIIII SSBN。

The arrival of the Borei SSBNs marks the first significant upgrade of the Russian Pacific Fleet SSBN force in more than three decades.

为了准备新的潜艇到达，卫星图片显示了向潜艇基码头，导弹装载码头和核弹头存储设施的升级。

Rybachiy潜艇基码头的升级

Similar to upgrades underway at the Yagelnaya Submarine Base to accommodate Borei-class SSBNs in the Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula, upgrades visible of submarine piers at Rybachiy Submarine Base are probably in preparation for the arrival of the first Borei SSBN – the Aleksandr Nevskiy (K-550) in the near future (see below).

2014年的商业卫星图像显示了一个正在建造的新大码头。码头包括六个大管子，可能是用于蒸汽和水以维护港口时的潜艇及其核反应堆。

该图像还显示了两个现有的Delta III SSBN，一个带有两个导弹管，并从大型起重机接收服务。其他可见的潜艇包括由核动力的Oscar-II级导弹潜艇，核动力维克多III攻击潜艇和柴油动力的千里级潜艇。

The arrival of the Borei-class in the Pacific has been delayed for more than a year because of developmental delays of the Bulava missile (SS-N-32) and the SSBN construction program. Russian Deputy Defence Minister Ruslan Tsalikov recently visited the base and promised that infrastructure and engineering work for the Borei-class SSBNs would be completed in time for the arrival of the Aleksander Nevsky (K-550). Predictions for arrival range from early- to late-September 2015.

升级导弹仓库装载码头

当未部署在SSBN上时，海面发射的弹道导弹及其弹头被存放在Vilyuchinsk导弹驱逐出境和弹头储物地点，对面约8公里（5英里）Rybachiy潜艇基地的东北区。为了接收和卸载导弹和弹头，SSBN将在两个码头之一的一个托架中，其中一个大型浮动起重机用于将导弹抬入或从潜艇的16个发射管中抬出。

Satellite images show that a larger third pier is under construction possibly to accommodate the Borei SSBNs and the Bulava SLBM loadings (see above). This will also provide additional docking space for both submarines and surface ships that use the facility.

导弹仓库本身包括大约60个地球覆盖的掩体（伊格鲁斯）和位于2公里（1.3英里）长的多个多胎设施内的许多服务设施，覆盖2.7平方公里（半平方英里）的面积。冰屋有大型前门，可以将SLBMS滚入气候控制设施内部以进行水平存储（请参见下图）。

除SSBN的SLBM外，该仓库还可能存储攻击潜艇和地面船的巡航导弹。供应船通常会在Vilyuchinsk加载导弹，然后将其运送到攻击潜艇或地面船上的基地码头。但是，太平洋的大多数俄罗斯地面舰队都位于弗拉基沃斯托克，距朝鲜附近的西南部约2200公里（1,400英里），并拥有自己的核武器存储地点。

Upgrade of Warhead Storage Site

当不与SSBN的SLBM交配时，核弹头似乎存储在导弹仓库以北的武器存储设施中。该设施包括两个覆盖的混凝土储物库或冰屋，内部为430米（1,500英尺）长170米（570英尺）宽三重面积，位于一个小的斜坡上在导弹仓库以北的湖泊旁边的山。当前周长以外的第三个冰屋过去可能用于存储核弹头，当时更多的SSBN位于Rybachiy（请参见下图）。

Satellite images show that the nuclear weapons storage site is under major renovation. The work started sometime after August 2013. By September 2014, one of the two igloos inside the security perimeter had been completely exposed revealing an 80×25-meter (263×82-foot) underground structure. The structure has two access tunnels and climate control (see below).

A later satellite image taken on November 1, 2014 reveals additional details of the storage facility. Rather than one large storage room, it appears to be made up of several rooms. One of the internal structures is about 37 meters (82 feet) long. A 30-meter (90 feet) long and 10-meter (30 feet) wide tunnel that connects the storage section with the main square of the site is being lengthened with new entry building. It is not possible to determine from the satellite images how deep the structure is but it appears to be at least 25 meters (see image below).

The weapons storage facility is likely capable of storing several hundred nuclear warheads. Each Delta-III SSBN based at Rybachiy can carry 16 SLBMs with up to 48 warheads. In recent years the Pacific Fleet has included only 2-3 Delta IIIs with a total of 96-144 warheads, but there used be many more SSBNs operating from Rybachiy. Each new Borei-class SSBN is capable of carrying twice the number of warheads of a Delta III and so far 2-3 Borei SSBNs are expected to transfer to the Pacific over the next few years.

为了将装载到导弹码头的潜艇上的SLBM武装起来，首先将弹头装在弹头存储设施的卡车上，然后沿着2.5公里（1.6英里）沿着通往导弹仓库入口的道路上行驶。在存储站点翻新期间，弹头不在船上的弹头可能将SSBN存储在安全周内的第二个冰屋中，或者暂时存放在导弹仓库中。

Implications and Recommendations

The expected arrival of the Borei SSBNs at the Rybachiy submarine base marks the first significant upgrade of the Russian Pacific Fleet SSBN force in more than three decades. The new submarines will have implications for strategic nuclear operations in the Pacific: they will be quieter and capable of carrying more nuclear warheads than the current class of Delta III submarines.

The Borei-class SSBN is significantly quieter than the Delta III and quieter than the Akula II-class attack submarine. A Delta III would probably have a hard time evading modern U.S. and Japanese anti-submarine forces but the Borei-class SSBN would be harder to detect. Even so, according to a chart published by the US Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence, the Borei-class SSBN is not as quiet as the Severodvinsk-class (Yasen) attack submarine (see graph below).

The Borei-class SSBN is equipped with as many SLBMs (16) as the Delta III-class SSBN. But the SS-N-32 (Bulava) SLBM on the Borei can carry twice as many warheads (6) as the SS-N-18 SLBM on the Delta III and is also thought to be more accurate. How many Borei-class SSBNs will eventually operate from Rybachiy remains to be seen. After the arrival of Alexander Nevsky later this year, a second is expected to follow in 2016. A total of eight Borei-class SSBNs are planned for construction under the Russian 2015-2020 defense plan but more could be added later to eventually replace all Delta III and Delta IV SSBNs.

With its SSBN modernization program, Russia is following the examples of the United States and China, both of which have significantly modernized their SSBN forces operating in the Pacific region over the past decade and a half.

TheUnited States添加的“三叉戟”II D5 SLBM太平洋SSBN fleet in 2002-2007, replacing the less capable Trident I C4 first deployed in the region in 1982. The D5 has greater range and better accuracy than its predecessor and also carries the more powerful W88 warhead. Unlike the C4, the D5 has full target kill capability and has significantly increased the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear posture in the Pacific. Today, about 60 percent of all U.S. SSBN patrols take place in the Pacific, compared with the Cold War when most patrols happened in the Atlantic. The US Navy has announced plans to build 12 new and improved SSBNs and there are already rumors that Russia may build 12 Borei SSBNs as well.

China, for its part, haslaunched fournew Jin-class SSBNs designed to carry the new Julang-2 SLBM. The Julang-2 (JL-2) has longer range and greater accuracy than its predecessor, the JL-1 developed for the unsuccessful Xia-class SSBN.

在太平洋地区的核现代化计划（以及一般军事力量）结合在一起，提高了该地区的战略重要性和军事竞争的重要性。Rybachiy的Borei级SSBN将正式驶入太平洋以保护俄罗斯，但当然也将被视为威胁其他国家。井眼很可能会被部署到太平洋，而不是驶入太平洋所谓的堡垒near the Kamchatka Peninsula where Russian attack submarines will try to protect them against U.S. attack submarines – the most advanced of which are being deployed to the Pacific.

因此，核武器竞赛的车轮又转弯了……

有关更多信息，请参见：2015年俄罗斯核力量

This publication was made possible by a grant from the New Land Foundation and Ploughshares Fund. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.